Posted by Ady1 on 09/12/2020 23:14:22:
Reminds me of the covid toilet roll panic, everyone is trying to stock up before Brexit and ports are overwhelmed
Far more difficult than that. Voting to leave the EU was voting for a Border with all that entails for the future. Checks on people and goods on both sides. Tariffs, paperwork, delays, disputes… For example, British Subjects visiting France will now join the 'Rest of the World' queue for full checks: passport, visa, credit, reason for and duration of visit, insurance, driving licences, and return ticket etc. Roughly 20 minutes rather than 2, worse if there's a queue. Plus new restrictions on anyone wishing to live, study or work in the EU.
Ironically for anyone who voted 'Leave' in hope of reducing immigration, our government has decided to wave everyone through on the UK side of the border! The hope is imported food won't rot whilst Czech lorry drivers have their right to enter checked and their cargo and paperwork is inspected to ensure the new tax and tariff arrangements are being followed. Not checking incomers at a border is a very odd way of 'taking back control'.
Ketan's post is an insight on the impact of a Border on exports. Pro-Leave politicians told us the EU valued UK trade so highly that an advantageous Trade Deal would be struck, including free movement of goods. Three years later a hard exit looks likely. Shouldn't be a surprise because the EU's position has always been core benefits are only available to member states. When dealing with outsiders, EU interests come first.
Although the EU is the UKs largest trading partner, it's but one of several trade blocks with whom new deals are needed. Of these, much was made of the benefits of increased trade with the US, but President Trump had other priorities during the presidential election. Not clear how President Biden will progress a US/UK Trade Deal given his negative views on Brexit's impact on Irish politics. Don't be surprised if the US uses trade negotiations to influence what happens in Ireland – there's always tension between trade and sovereignty.
International trade deals are horribly complicated. Failing to get one means nations default to World Trade Organisation terms which are the most expensive and bureaucratic. Not the end of the world, but best avoided if at all possible. Brexit is going to make exporting from the UK to several trade bloc's difficult until Trade Deals are struck: rather than a 1 or 2% growth next year, the UK economy is expected to shrink by 2 to 5%.
Interesting times ahead. My leave friends are all convinced the future wonderful; unfortunately none of them can explain how leaving the EU is going to work in practice. Government Advice isn't clear either. Businesses are to: Check, Change, Go. Unfortunately with 22 days to go, government advice to a businessmen like Ketan is:
If you sell manufactured goods
There may be new rules you need to comply with. Check regulatory requirements for UK and EU markets, including labelling, approvals and testing.
Check what? Change how? Go where? No wonder Ketan and many other companies are taking precautions – temporary suspension while the details emerge next year. Let's hope things improve quickly.
On a lighter note, a clear call from the government for Model Engineers to help businesses prepare for Brexit:

An attractive young woman in a high-vis jacket with safety glasses and helmet is struggling to read the digital version of MEW on her Tablet. And she owns such a nice lathe! What could possibly be wrong?
Can you think of a Caption?

Dave