We should receive our second dose this month. I watch the daily corona virus reports – but treat them with the caution they deserve.
The daily reports tell us how many areas are showing rising cases – without any relation to common sense. If an area shows the smallest insignificant rise, it is reported among those headline claims. Rates are often reported to 3 decimal places which is, frankly, ridiculous. Significance, expected variance in results and plain luck can make individual results meaningless. What we need is the trends over longer periods than just a day or week.
If the case numbers were high, but levelled out, I would expect nearly 50% rising and about the same amount falling. Today the headline report on aol was of ‘ covid cases still rising in 40 local areas in England. Totally meaningless and misleading.
If the case rates are very low and level, I might expect many more areas remaining constant, but the risers and fallers changing by perhaps only a few points.
Further, the vaunted ‘R’ value is shown to be fairly useless – except for headlines. If cases are high or low, the ‘R’ value can be exactly the same but mean greatly differing infection rates in new numbers of infections per 100,000 of the population. The ‘R’ rate can jump considerably with the odd extra one or two infections in a low infection area – possibly just a hiccup in reporting some cases within the wrong time frame.
Lies, damn lies and statistics is the thing to watch for, with media reports.