That's fair comment, and I think the ten percent difference between our two figures is indicative of the scale of the problem. Anyone who's studied the science of flow in pipes will know that the diameter and the length of the pipe has a huge bearing on the flow rate through it, never mind what happens when you partially obstruct it.
If you gave any of these designs to an F1 test team, I bet they could model the gas flow for a variety of pressure drops across the flues and do the same for the water turning into steam in the boiler. They have the Finite Element Analysis tools to model what happens over aerodynamic surfaces cooling passages in the water jackets in the engines. There's no mystery as to how to solve these problems but sadly I don't have access to these tools, and wouldn't know how to apply them even if I did.
Julian has sent me some pictures of a boiler that has very few tubes indeed, only 12 in a boiler for the same size locomotive as Speedy. Instinct tells me that it's not enough, knowing what everyone else seems to think is necessary, yet is works very well indeed. I think any attempt to use arbitrary rules of thumb is futile because the governing factors in the design are just not represented by those figures. It's a fascinating spreadsheet though, and I think its main value is in debunking these rules of thumb rather than reinforcing them.