Coronavirus death stats

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

<<So I call your opinion out for what it is: unfounded misinformation that has no place on social media. >>

The publishing of fake news, disinformation and downright rubbish on social media (or indeed any media) is a PITA but I cannot support moves to block it because that inherently becomes censorship and censorship itself becomes a way of manipulation too – that whole nonsense of 'influencers' twisting pubic opinion is just as suspect as government propaganda. Sadly average Joe is not too good at independant thought and has a short memory.

You have to remember that gov and WHO initially told people not to wear facemasks because it would give them a false sense of security and if everyone just washed their hands that was the best way to protect themselves. It was always a disease that could be spread by aerosol and caught not just by physical touching but by inhalation. I'm all for cleanliness and hygeine but ventilation, dilution and filtration should have been promoted way earlier.

I invested in a decent FFP3 mask as soon as this disease was 'announced' and do my shopping looking like Darth Vader – indeed I may carry on doing that in future flu seasons. Back when i was working and meeting the public in numbers my immune system was always being topped up by challenge and I never got ill – retirement, ageing and rural life probably make me more susceptible to other people's germs.

Hopefully the concept of sanitisers being used before entering shops will be extended permenantly too.

The only problem with the need to rush a vaccine is the obvious one of long term efficacy. If some of the statements that actually having the disease may only confer 5 mths protection from getting it again are true (as opposed to selling newspapers) then the vaccine may not be quite the magic bullet we hope for. It's not going to stop me lining up for my shot since it still helps dilute the problem. Devolved nations wanting to show how important and different they can do things means that here in Wales I'll be lucky if the over 70's rural tranche get offered a shot by March.

pgk

[Raphael GolezParticipant @raphaelgolez]

I will add my own experience treating and working in COVID-19 environment day in and day out.

Vaccines (as there are several out) : In the UK we use Pfizer (admin please delete if inappropriate and I'm not endorsing anything) is used by the NHS. This is a mRNA vaccine. I don't want to bore people here but you can find out yourself how it works and information is abundant in the web. I have been vaccinated (got a mild fever and body aches – took paracetamol – AVOID NSAID) and all is well. I am scheduled to have second booster dose by the 21st of January but delayed until 8th of March due to the government policy to get more people immunise their first dose. Im cool with this. To recall when this first happened about a year ago I was hit by severe symptoms of fever, cough and extreme fatigue after taking care of patient with C-19. Advised was to self isolate for 14 days and weather it down unless I become unwell that I need to go to A&E for evaluation. At that point no testing was advise (test for C-19 result takes to long around that time at around 4-5 days) I recovered after following full government guidelines and isolating for 20 days. My feet is itching to go back to work and carry on the fight against this virus. I was officially cleared by occupational health to go back to work then first lockdown started. Since then I have been expose to low level COVID-19 (non aerosolise area and not in ITU where ventilation required). Technically speaking I'm training my immune system to cope with the pathogen. I requested to have my antibodies check but here we are a year later and still no response to the paper work I submitted for antibodies testing (not to worried about that now). I have thankfully been ok. My main concern is my family (wife and daughter) so I have maintained distance from them since March last year by separating myself in another room, wear mask in the house and using FaceTime to talk to them. Yes we do have a glimpse at each other but I maintained distance. Im very sad and missed them despite us staying in one roof! No hugs and kisses for me. When I got home from work I fully isolate, take work scrubs off and put on a sealed laundry bag ready for a two and a half heated water cycle wash. I immediately had a hot shower for 30 minutes after which I was allowed to go in my room. Im thankful that my wife looks after my food and I have to eat in my room for almost a year now. Thats my routine to protect them from me as I work in a high risk environment.

For the mask: We have different guidelines over 1 year as the pandemic got worse. Around Feb to March, we do not use any mask in the corridors of the hospital but only in red areas (ICU, read A&E and respiratory ward) as per national guidelines. This was dramatically change as we tried to adopt to the situation where in we have to wear surgical mask when we enter the ward around April 2020. As you know different mask have different levels of protection. During this time nobody really fully understood how it spread (Medically speaking : incubation period, droplets or aerosolation, distance, variants, etc.) We then have to be fit tested for a higher level of mask protection and this involve a rigorous process to see what mask fit your face for a certain particle size and if you fail the test then your only recommendation is a full head respiratory suit incase you work in a red area. Moving on around May 2021 and we are advise to wear full surgical mask as we enter hospital premise and you wear that the whole time you are in the hospital then we change to FFP3 plus visor on red zone with out aerosolising procedure. All aerosolising procedures we do is only done in a designated ward and ITU/HDU and nowhere else (this includes NIV and intubation, CPR is also an aerosolising procedure and is treated with full precaution). Surgical mask will have the minimum protection but it also limits the spread so it does what it suppose to do. Lastly, I'm also afraid and scared (i would be lying if I tell you Im not) but I have a job to do and proud to play my part in this pandemic. I have full respect for this virus and I take things very seriously. Any advise from the government and the scientific community are all worth it and as I mentioned before we are learning along the way, we are fire fighting this pandemic and hoping that this will be over soon. Its up to everyone to do your  part and contribute positively to our situation. I respect people's opinions and sometime I just shake my head if I think its different to mine but thats how it is. I just don't want people to get sick because of a different opinion and trust me once you have it and in a difficult situation skeptics will become believers.

Stay safe everyone,

Raphael

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:16:15

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:17:44

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:21:41

[Mike PooleParticipant @mikepoole82104]

I think the astonishing speed with which the vaccine has been produced is a demonstration of how quickly things can be done when money is no object and the will exists to cut through all the normal obstacles. I don’t believe corners have been cut just the process streamlined as much as possible. I wonder if the vaccine doubters will be willing to join the back of the queue for a hospital ICU bed if they get the virus?

Mike

[Raphael GolezParticipant @raphaelgolez]

Posted by Mike Poole on 17/01/2021 07:23:44:

I think the astonishing speed with which the vaccine has been produced is a demonstration of how quickly things can be done when money is no object and the will exists to cut through all the normal obstacles. I don’t believe corners have been cut just the process streamlined as much as possible. I wonder if the vaccine doubters will be willing to join the back of the queue for a hospital ICU bed if they get the virus?

Mike

Im sure fundings poured into the research and development is no joke. Mike, thats if we got vacancies. Its not a queue that you wait and it keeps on going. Its a queue where in if beds are occupied (which they are) patient can stay there for weeks on end. Now if they can wait for weeks then maybe the queue will move on.

Raphael

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:37:31

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:40:05

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 07:40:46

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

Posted by Danny M2Z on 17/01/2021 05:11:52:

There are some places in Australia that refuse entry to people who cannot prove that they have been vaccinated.

Eg; Some child care centres deny admission to children whom are not immunised against measles and some aged care facilities deny access to people whom do not have a current influenza vaccination.

I would not be surprised if that in the future, such facilities might require a Covid-19 vaccination certificate.

IMHO people who refuse to be vaccinated (with a proven vaccine) are being quite selfish in putting tthe rest of the community at risk due to their intransigence.

* danny *

It's that old chestnut of the needs of the many versus their freedom to choose

Governments are going to have to choose between german style forced mass injection programs versus US style constitutional freedoms of the individual to choose

As the human race multiplies government policy is put firmly into the spotlight

Always intruiging to watch people take sides

"People who forcibly inject us are selfish"

"People who refuse to be injected are selfish"

Edited By Ady1 on 17/01/2021 08:12:34

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

Posted by Tony Wright 1 on 16/01/2021 21:59:50:

There is no way in the world some one is going to inject me with a chemical in the vague hope it will protect me from a virus . This is my opinion please don’t have a go at me if you don’t respect MY decision! Thanks

Tony

Your choice. But if you catch the virus, please don’t overburden the system further. Isolate yourself, not expect the hard-working NHS to spend out thousands (yes £thousands) when there are other poor souls having their treatments put on hold. For just a few pounds (£50, perhaps less, outlay and most of that is paid by the state) one can be protected to some degree.

Those that are inconsiderate still get treated. Think here motorcyclists not wearing suitable clothing (whether that is without a helmet or without gloves – or riding at speed while only ‘protected’ by shorts and T-shirts). People who recklessly go ‘mountaineering’ without suitable attire are often saved by the mountain rescue teams putting themselves at risk. There are lots of other examples.

I know that accident and emergency hospital attendance is often prioritised – we were told that there was a 2 1/2 hour waiting time on one occasion, but my wife was only there 10 minutes before being taken for treatment.

The same could/should happen for those that decline taking the opportunity of using a safety net? At the moment, these people are treated equally. In the event of a completely over-whelmed NHS, decisions for priority may have to be taken in this pandemic.

Agreed, we don’t yet know all the benefits/risks of the vaccines – with regard to transmission of the virus, for instance – but data is being collected all the time.

So my view is that those who decline the vaccine will get treated, if possible, should they need treatment. But they should be billed for that care. Perhaps on a pro-rata scale? (The data will soon show the extent of the cost of cure for those of different ages – you can be sure of that). Like any insurance policy – if you are not covered by the policy, expect to pay out for the loss yourself.

I am not suggesting that all hospital treatments should go this way, but this virus pandemic is an unprecedented occurrence. The same approach should also be considered for those that blatantly break the quarantine rules – they are costing the rest of us huge amounts, by their reckless behaviour. They are costing some people their lives – make no mistake on that.

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

I wouldn't put too much faith in a vaccine being highly effective against the cold and flu virus either

If it had been a distinct possibility we would have done it in the 50s and 60s when the entire population was in and out of hospital like yoyos and there was a hospital round every corner

While other static diseases have been virtually eliminated by vaccines the flu virus simply mutates too quickly

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Raphael is obviously more in touch with current knowledge and theory than myself. I must admit I was suprised by the apparent delay in trialling adrenocorticosteroids in the early days when excess inflammatory responses had been recognised. Vets also get blinkered between remembering that antiinflammatory and immunosuppressive doses are way apart. The trial of passive immune therapy took a long time before it was tried – albeit reports suggest it's of no benefit here – it's been a stalwart approach for difficult disease therapy (or just a hail Mary) that ought to have been tried/eliminated a lot earlier.

I'd be interested to hear whether any immunostimulants and immunomoderators have been trialled (I've had success with the likes of 'old fashioned' levamisole or fenbendazole in weird cases and even tetracyclines for their 'side effect' of immunomoderation). According to media they're only just playing with interferon trials – hardly anything new and should have been trialled last year. Not that it ever worked at the doses I could afford to trial on my viral patients back 20yrs ago.

One thing that does appear to be of some small help is finding a correlation between vitamin D metabolite levels and improvements in recoveries. So while it's not a magic preventative there is every reason to believe that a decent supplement (particularly in winter) would help those who run at low levels otherwise. it won't stop you catching it but might stop you getting as ill or for as long.

The best solution is to avoid catching the thing in the first place within practical reality. 6metres is better than 2metres. Outdoors is better than indoors etc

pgk

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Posted by Ady1 on 17/01/2021 08:06:47:

I wouldn't put too much faith in a vaccine being highly effective against the cold and flu virus either

If it had been a distinct possibility we would have done it in the 50s and 60s when the entire population was in and out of hospital like yoyos and there was a hospital round every corner

While other static diseases have been virtually eliminated by vaccines the flu virus simply mutates too quickly

It's an absurd statement to make.

In the 50's and 60's the techniques for genome mapping didn't exist so the sort of vaccine technology used here couldn't be done.

The other simple issue is cost/benefit. There's a heck of a lot more reason for a drug company to throw huge resources at a high morbidity/mortality disease than for the common cold. The financial rewards are simpy greater. Cynics might wonder if seasonal flu vaccines could be redesigned for better cross protection by targeting a response against common markers raher than knocking out a guess of this years strain. Perhaps they wouldn't sell as many doses…perhaps it can't be done.

What may be more interesting to see is whether the C-19 vaccines have any benefi for other coronavirus diseases such as the common cold or whether simple tweaks can be made in the future on the back of this huge investment.

[Tony Wright 1Participant @tonywright1]

Wow a lot of lefty’s knowing all the answers ! Moving on.

Edited By Tony Wright 1 on 17/01/2021 10:18:21

[Raphael GolezParticipant @raphaelgolez]

Hi pgk, very interesting discussion about immunomodulators but I have limited info on these myself. What we are worried greatly is the cytokine storm as a result of covid-19. Others don't develop this situation but if you do you are in for a rough ride. Our lungs become inefficient in oxygenating our body and we become hypoxic and if we are severely frail then mortality increases. ARDS pictures sets in and the only way out is to support the lungs with oxygen and if the requirement is high then NIV or worst case scenario a ventilator is needed.

Currently we have low threshold for giving Dexamethasone as this is shown in RECOVERY trial a significant reduction in mortality and respiratory failure in patient requiring oxygen therapy (we don't start if patient does not require oxygen but keep a very close eyes on saturations). So in simple terms we are addressing the inflammatory over expression. NSAID was advised not to be use with C-19 patient but not much evidence for now but I'm sure they are looking into this so far the advice is not to use it in C-19 patient for now (it might be change once information and data proves its safety). We start early antibiotics to address concomitant bacterial infection.

Its also interesting you mentioned Vit D. I co-authored a study looking into this we done locally. Vitamin D levels and Mortality with SARS-COV-2 infection. Our conclusion is we did not find significant relationships between vitamin D levels and positive C-19 results. The most vulnerable group was one with multiple comorbidities such as ischeamic heart disease, hypertension, COPD, interstitial lung disease, asthma, alcoholic liver disease, chronic liver disease, dementia, frailty, smoker, diabetes mellitus 1 and 2. There was increased mortality among swab negative-treat as positive patient versus patients with positive C-19 swab results (p<0.05). Total of 435 patient with a median age of 72 and a range from 1 to 101 years old. Early days I suppose but it would be nice to have more data and in longer duration. I'm sure there is no harm in correcting low levels Vit D as this is a standard in Fracture Neck of Femur patients that I see on a regular basis.

One other thing we are doing is the treatment with IL-6 inhibitors (Tocilizumab and Sarilumab) for patients admitted to ICU with C-19 pneumonia in adults. This is in the scope of intensive care medicine and its out of my comfort zone.

Raphael

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 10:23:13

Edited By Raphael Golez on 17/01/2021 10:23:36

[Anthony KnightsParticipant @anthonyknights16741]

Hopefully I won't now be dying from covid, although I do have other conditions which could see me off.

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Anthony Knights on 17/01/2021 10:27:21:

Hopefully I won't now be dying from covid, although I do have other conditions which could see me off.

Good on you mate. Well done.

Our slack government here in Oz is not going to even start vaccinating until March so you are lucky. ( But our numbers are minimal due to strict lockdown controls etc so your need is obviously more urgent over there.)

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Tony Wright 1 on 17/01/2021 10:16:23:

Wow a lot of lefty’s knowing all the answers ! Moving on.

Edited By Tony Wright 1 on 17/01/2021 10:18:21

Leave the politics out of it please and stick with the facts.

[V8EngParticipant @v8eng]

So good to see many world leaders taking their responsibility to reduce the possibility of spreading the virus so seriously.👹

G7 Summit

By the time you add their retinues and the worlds media this summit meeting seems highly irresponsible in my view.

Can’t they use Zoom or something just like the rest of us are forced to do by these very people!

With this sort of nonsense going on it is going to need miracles rather than vaccines to save us.

Edited By V8Eng on 17/01/2021 10:54:57

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Ady1 on 17/01/2021 07:56:21:

Posted by Danny M2Z on 17/01/2021 05:11:52:

There are some places in Australia that refuse entry to people who cannot prove that they have been vaccinated.

Eg; Some child care centres deny admission to children whom are not immunised against measles and some aged care facilities deny access to people whom do not have a current influenza vaccination.

I would not be surprised if that in the future, such facilities might require a Covid-19 vaccination certificate.

IMHO people who refuse to be vaccinated (with a proven vaccine) are being quite selfish in putting tthe rest of the community at risk due to their intransigence.

* danny *

It's that old chestnut of the needs of the many versus their freedom to choose

Governments are going to have to choose between german style forced mass injection programs versus US style constitutional freedoms of the individual to choose

As the human race multiplies government policy is put firmly into the spotlight

Always intruiging to watch people take sides

"People who forcibly inject us are selfish"

"People who refuse to be injected are selfish"

Edited By Ady1 on 17/01/2021 08:12:34

Ah, well. There-in is the rub.

John Stuart Mill wrote the classical definition of freedom several hundred years ago. It amounted basically to: Freedom is the absence of constraint to do whatever you want, provided it does no harm to others.

Far too many people pay attention to first half of that equation and ignore the second half. That would include Covid vaccination refusers. Not only because they would take up hospital beds that could be used to save the lives of others, but because they will also walk around unknowingly infected and spreading the virus.

With a vaccine only 90 per cent effective that means they could infect 10 out of every hundred people they contact. Which could be do them great harm.

So getting vaccinated is not an infringement on freedom. It is a necessity for the freedom of those around you.

Our Aussie PM has stated there will be no Nazi-style holding down and forced injections but you will need to have been vaccinated if you want to travel overseas or enter the country, attend schools, universities, child care centres, public workplaces and the like. And quite possibly if you want to receive a government benefit such as welfare, pension, child support etc. Qantas airline has already said nobody will board their planes even for interstate flights without a vaccine certificate etc. So unless you want to live like a hermit for the rest of your life, plan on getting vaccinated at some stage as I'm sure governments most places will do much the same one way or another.

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

Will cut down on tourists for a while, the whole area will be turned into a police state for about 3 weeks

In Edinburgh a zillion police arrived, cleared all the down and outs and homeless from the streets, ran all the boy racers off the roads and put up anti-people barriers all over the place

[Steve PaveyParticipant @stevepavey65865]

As Hopper says..

“Ah, well. There-in is the rub.

John Stuart Mill wrote the classical definition of freedom several hundred years ago. It amounted basically to: Freedom is the absence of constraint to do whatever you want, provided it does no harm to others.”

Spot on. Fortunately I think there are enough people around who will take up the vaccine to enable us to achieve a good level of herd immunity (though I think there is still a lack of data to show by how much vaccination reduces the transmissibility). As with the flu, Covid is a disease we will be living with for the foreseeable future, and as with the flu vaccine there will be continual development to keep up with mutations. I will certainly be getting vaccinated as soon as it is offered – partly for selfish reasons of course as I hate being ill, and so I can hopefully travel to Australia safely, but also so I don’t infect my family and friends. The thought that I might transmit Covid to, say, my grandchildren or my other half is not a pleasant one, especially if I did so because I was standing on some ridiculous human rights soap box.

[Ramon WilsonParticipant @ramonwilson3]

Posted by Tony Wright 1 on 17/01/2021 10:16:23:

Wow a lot of lefty’s knowing all the answers ! Moving on.

Edited By Tony Wright 1 on 17/01/2021 10:18:21

Quite sometime ago the late John Stevenson, though not naming anyone specifically referred to some on here as "educated beyond stupidity"

Another member in the Norwich club would often say " What do you actually achieve if you win an argument with an idiot" (he was actually referring to discussions with his very recalcitrant father) but he has a point.

We all have our own ways of looking at things whatever they are but to defend yourself by accusing me – and others – of being a 'lefty' because we don't share your thoughts I find offensive.

You sir are out on a limb. As others have said if, god forbid, you are lying in a Covid ward surrounded by caring people already at the point of exhaustion dealing with this pandemic you may, if you have any consideration for anyone but yourself at all rethink your position.

I really can't believe some of the things I have seen on here recently – whatever happened to MODEL ENGINEERING

Tug

[norm nortonParticipant @normnorton75434]

Posted by Steve Pavey on 17/01/2021 11:13:07:

Freedom is the absence of constraint to do whatever you want, provided it does no harm to others.”

A good quotation Steve, and I have the same view that you describe. The problem with the very clear statement above is the definition of harm and quantifying it. For example, "I am harmed by hearing your views"; I might be harmed if you ride that motorcycle"; "Your creation of air pollution is harming me". How many of those do we agree with?

I thought that this forum thread might be a bit of a rant, but pleased to see there are thoughtful expressions from most everyone. Thinking about these things and discussing them is helpful, if done considerately.

As I get older I am more surprised by the extreme and totally illogical views that some poor souls manage to adopt as an obsession. This Q Anon movement is very odd.

 

Edited By norm norton on 17/01/2021 11:44:59

[Tony Wright 1Participant @tonywright1]

Hello Tug it’s just my thoughts . You’re right lets get back to more serious subjects model engineering 😁

[Frances IoMParticipant @francesiom58905]

What I take from this and other ‘tea room’ discussions is both the wide range of backgrounds but also of so many with significant work in other fields who can add significantly to other’s understanding of a problem.

[Author]

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