As far as I know,the immunity builds up very well after the first shot and the second is just topping off the dose. In the UK, the gap is 12 weeks between doses, to enable a greater number of people to get the first part building up the antibodies and T cells.

Quantifying protection is difficult as much of the original testing was on the basis of a 3 week gap between inoculations. Only now is the level of protection after 12 weeks being investigated.

While the level of protection is apparently good the current advice (which may well change) is that if you were shielding before the first jab you should continue to shield until a week after the second one – at least that is what I have been advised by my consultant at a specialist chest clinic.

……. or a 1 in 3 chance of having the same chance of contracting the virus as you did prior to the vaccine 🤪

I think it's a percentage of protection against the worst 0%=death, 60% = really bad cold or mild flu, 95% = what infection?

BTW over 65's don't seem to need an invite any longer just go on web site and book it.

Edited By Dave Halford on 14/02/2021 21:02:28

You can also still fall ill for a short while after the first injection if you have been infected, because the body needs time to build up immunity.

I am not certain that's quite right about over-65s not needing an invitation. I am 68, and received an NHS invitation only yesterday. .It says though I can book via the route it gives or wait for my local surgery to contact me. I was rather surprised as I thought I would be waiting a while yet.

Not the whole picture.

They reported 46% after two weeks and 67% after three. But no mention of the range or even the vaccine mix, so what we do know is that the protection is presumably still rising.

The Israelis seem to have cracked the problem – their stats show only a few infections among the vaccinated (two doses?), very few serious infections and no deaths in that cohort.

It's a mistake that all the journalist make to assume that the statistical figures quoted mean anything useful when applied to one individual. It's a mistake to particularise from statistics.

Whether you (as an individual) contract the disease is controlled more by the "hands, face, space" concept, together with the local prevalence of infected and infectious candidates.

The 67% protection figure simply means that the number of infections in a sufficiently large sample group will reduce by 67%, it doesn't follow that any one person's chances of getting infected are reduced the same. Either you get it or you don't. It does however seem to mean that the whole group (i.e. a group of a statistically significant size) is protected to a large extent from acquiring a potentially fatal illness.

Remember that the vaccination program isn't about protecting individuals. It seems to be achieving that but it's incidental. The point of the vaccination program is to change the statistics of hospitalisation, severe illness, death. On a country wide scale – a statistical sample of about 65 million individuals – even quite low effectiveness percentages give wholesale benefit to the population.

Given enough vaccination recipients, the concept of herd immunity starts to affect the mathematics, and (hopefully) our present constraints on our way of living become irrelevant. The "R" index is controlled not by physical distancing (social distancing) and precautionary measures such as shielding, but by a natural mass immunity and the consequent reduction in the number of carriers (infectors).

But (unfortunately) no-one's told the virus to play fair. We could be here some while yet.

Peter

I have learnt during this pandemic not to take any notice of the media especially the BBC when it comes to unbiased reporting on Covid. Maybe the media in Canada is the same. Equally I take no notice of 99.9% of comments on social media.

There are plenty of peer reviewed reports and statistics available from scientific institutions and a Dr. John Campbell from Youtube who offers excellent daily comment on Covid and related issues. He never makes assumptions and always refers to scientific evidence so you can read reports and view statistical evidence for yourself. He reports on global issues as well as those specific to the UK.

Hi all, with regard to all the drivel posted on "social" media I think Doctor Jonathan Van Tam hit the nail squarely on the head when he said "when my boiler breaks down I send for a gas fitter", horses for courses then.

BobH

I have no idea of what's happening in England but here in North Wales (Bangor area) no invitation is required for 65+. I was told last Thursday and rang the local surgery to get a contact number. I rang it but no answer so I did what the surgery staff told me to do, that was to let them know how I got on, they then booked me in from the surgery on Friday for an appointment that afternoon. No fuss, no bother just turn up and fill a form in then wait for your turn. This was at the MVC/emergency hospital in Bangor who are using the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine, other half had hers at the surgery which is using the Oxford/Astra Zeneca. I'm 66 in April she is 70 in April.

Go for it don't hang around.

Nathan.

I understand from the son of a friend, who is an epidemiologist and has been working extensively on Covid over the last 12 months that the first inoculation will give around a 25% level of protection after 2 weeks and which gradually increases to about 50% to the time of the second inoculation. Interesting that the WHO has come out and declared (reported in The Times) that a delay to the second inoculation will give a 'better' result in overall eficiacy. This confirms the Government strategy of a 12 week wait for the second dose. I had my 'shot' 3 weeks ago and I am still shielding and not taking any risks whatsoever. Others I know are assuming they are now free to mingle, complete idiots that are bending the rules for selfish ends.

Meanwhile my daughter who lives in Madrid has told me that her in-laws, who are both in their 70's, have no likelihood of an injection until at least September. Good to see the UK Gvt. has got something right in all this pandemic.

As a further note of caution/alarm I also see that another outbreak of Ebola has occurred in Guinea. This is the one to watch, as the concern is if there is a cross mutation with a virus as destructive as Ebola, it may well be bye-bye human race!

Stay safe everyone,

Martin