Coronavirus

[BazyleParticipant @bazyle]

Posted by Rod Renshaw on 15/03/2020 21:13:14:

So, how do you make a ventilator?

To me, who knows nothing about the subject, it sounds like you need some tubing and valves, an air pump, some electronics , some switches and pots to control things and a case to hold it all together.

If we can find some scrap iron JCB can make the metal bits, just a matter of reprogramming the CNCs. But all the electronics and plastic parts probably come from China. We can't make them 'cos the chief accountant sold them the machines to boost his bonus.

[SteviegtrParticipant @steviegtr]

Had a txt from NHS tonight telling me not to go to surgery. Al done over phone, call back service or somat.

Steve.

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Ady1 on 15/03/2020 19:12:59:

Posted by Samsaranda on 15/03/2020 17:31:17:

Not wishing to be gloomy but the emergence of “herd immunity” now being used by the government in its updates, conveys to me that perhaps their strategy is that as many of the population as possible should endure the virus in order that they will be immune when successive waves of the virus strikes, then meaning that there will be a larger number of citizens then able to carry on working with less disruption and of course pay the taxes that the government will desperately need. I am sure that it can’t be as cynical as that.

Dave W

This is the way I'm thinking it

If I've got a 98% chance of getting through the first wave at least I'm in charge and I've got good odds

This one is going to mutate into god knows what, especially amongst the 100s of millions of poor folk around planet earth

The people who get it in the early stages and develop some immunity could wind up being the lucky ones

We live in interesting times….

I'm with you on that. I'm not self-isolating or social distancing until absolutely forced to by the powers that be. Would rather get it over and done with sooner rather than later, one way or the other. I'm in my 60s so not low risk group but not up there with the octagenarians either.

Of course, it's easy to be like that at the moment: the nearest reported case is a thousand miles away.

Edited By Hopper on 16/03/2020 00:00:22

[Ed DuffnerParticipant @edduffner79357]

A few months back I bought a 1 litre container of Isopropyl alcohol for cleaning up camera parts and soldering jobs, for about £6.

I've just acquired a 3D printer which calls for IPA for cleaning parts and one seller on Ebay is now asking £115 for a litre. The greed of some people..!

Ed.

[Danny M2ZParticipant @dannym2z]

Here in Oz the major supermarkets have announced that the first hour of opening shall be restricted to pensioners and concession/health care card holders.

Nice move, but I hope that gen XYZ don't blame the baby boomers for taking all their dunny rolls or maybe they will just hang around in the carpark and mug us as we emerge with the loo-t

Also Woolworths (Australia) plan to shut down 1000 stores to allow them to restock **LINK**

I found plans for a DIY bidet online btw. **LINK**

Could be the basis for an MEW article if Neil is not flush with articles.

* Danny M *

[J HancockParticipant @jhancock95746]

Ah well, after waking up this morning and passing the 10sec test I was full of hope, until I read Cabinet Enforcers

words of enlightenment.

Now I can join the worried well again.

[Colin WhittakerParticipant @colinwhittaker20544]

This morning, while tootling around Phuket in my soft top Series 2 Land Rover, I decided to look for poor risk assessments, to whit, motorcyclists wearing a face mask but no crash helmet. The challenge was met less than two minutes later by a pair of lads in baseball caps and facemasks pulling out from the curb on the other side of the road.

Tomorrow I plan to be more ambitious. The target will be a masked helmetless motorcyclist texting.

On an unrelated note, why can't I moved a toilet base from its position for the last ten years on a tiled bathroom floor? There's no obvious screws or bolts holding it down. Is it just a glue seal that needs to be broken? (I hope to find a perished seal underneath that has recently led to a leak through the ceiling in the room below.)

The fun of retirement.

Colin

[RMAParticipant @rma]

More than likely bedded on mortar. If it's a weak mix you might be lucky and it'll break free. Otherwise be prepared to smash it and renew.

[JAParticipant @ja]

The ten second test appears to be discredited.

May I suggest that you just take your temperature after getting up in the morning.

JA

[Anthony KnightsParticipant @anthonyknights16741]

If you are going to catch the Coronavirus, now might be a good time as the Health service is not presently overwhelmed by thousands of cases as it may well be in a few weeks time. If I caught it when half the country was infected I would probably be put in a corner and left to die, The government would then say "Thats another £12.000 pension we won't have to pay next year". The insurance companies would also have to take my remaining private pension pots.

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Bill Chugg on 16/03/2020 09:42:08:

Rather be here than across the pond with regard to survival rate having read todays USA headlines.

etc

LOL. I knew it. I posted days ago that the Yanks buy ammo and the Aussies buy toilet paper. What are they going to do (the Yanks) shoot the gawdang virus all to bits? Bust a cap on its junky ass? Go ahead Covid-19 make my day. LOL.

Today's Good News:

Full story here: **LINK**

Note: These are university medical scientists, not snake-oil salesmen. And most importantly, the drugs are already available and tested as safe for humans so do not need the usual 12-month saftety trial before use.

Queensland researchers find ‘cure’, want drug trial

Some patients who tested positive for coronavirus in Australia have already been treated with one of the drugs and “all did very, very well,” researchers say.

A team of Australian researchers say they’ve found a cure for the novel coronavirus and hope to have patients enrolled in a nationwide trial by the end of the month.

University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research director Professor David Paterson told news.com.au today they have seen two drugs used to treat other conditions wipe out the virus in test tubes.

He said one of the medications, given to some of the first people to test positive for COVID-19 in Australia, had already resulted in “disappearance of the virus” and complete recovery from the infection.

Prof Paterson, who is also an infectious disease physician at the Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, said it wasn’t a stretch to label the drugs “a treatment or a cure”.

“It’s a potentially effective treatment,” he said.

“Patients would end up with no viable coronavirus in their system at all after the end of therapy.”

The drugs are both already registered and available in Australia.

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by Bill Chugg on 16/03/2020 10:02:14:

Thanks Hopper.

That definitely makes good reading.

Bill

Yes I think there is light at the end of the tunnel (and it's not some Yank's laser sight )

But the media is focussed on the more immediate events, which is fair enough given the situation.

But definitely, all is not lost.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 15/03/2020 17:30:54:

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:33:59:

Just a point of emidemiological pedantry…

Intuitively, one might predict that the disease would spread through the population such that the number infected rose exponentially with time. But it should not, because, as the number of infected increases, there is an increasing probability that an infectious person 'tries' to infect someone who is already exposed. I don't know how significant this reduction may be, but any prediction based on exponentials should be challenged – it only 'works' if every contact is susceptible.

A little crumb of comfort?

Edited By Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:34:49

Ecologists and epidemiologists have known this for a long, long time. It's only economists who talk about 'sustainable growth' as if there's no upper limit (or 'carrying capacity' as we ecologists call it).

It's part of the theory behind herd immunity.

Neil

As far as my maths go, it's still exponential. If the exponant is greater than one there is an increase, less than one a decrease. The exponant changes with the virus' ability to infect and the availability of new targets. As the targets reduce the exponant reduces to a value less than 1 and the new infections plateau and then decline. Reducing contact also reduces the exponant and flattens the curve.

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Latest: Every Cloud Has a Silver Lining

Queensland Police has suspended multi-vehicle roadside breath and drug tests amid the rising coronavirus outbreak.

“This approach will take immediate effect and remain in place until further notice,” Queensland Police said in a statement.

“The decision has been made to minimise health risks to QPS officers and the community. etc etc.

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

Oh how they all laffed at me when I talked about the zombie apocalypse

[Howard LewisParticipant @howardlewis46836]

As Corporal Jones said in "Dad's Army" DON'T PANIC!

Today, in UK, there are rumours of Emergency Powers that will keep over 70s indoors for four months.

Splendid! So the really vulnerable, who are supported and kept in social contact by many over 70s will be isolated as well. But the current UK death rate represents barely one thousandth of the population.

And what will four months of incarceration, with minimal exercise, possibly a worsened diet, and almost no social contact do for the mental and physical health of the currently fit and healthy older folk?

Ah, but that is next years problem for the NHS, is it not?

Howard

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 10:32:59:

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 15/03/2020 17:30:54:

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:33:59:

Just a point of emidemiological pedantry…

Intuitively, one might predict that the disease would spread through the population such that the number infected rose exponentially with time. But it should not, because, as the number of infected increases, there is an increasing probability that an infectious person 'tries' to infect someone who is already exposed. I don't know how significant this reduction may be, but any prediction based on exponentials should be challenged – it only 'works' if every contact is susceptible.

A little crumb of comfort?

Edited By Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:34:49

Ecologists and epidemiologists have known this for a long, long time. It's only economists who talk about 'sustainable growth' as if there's no upper limit (or 'carrying capacity' as we ecologists call it).

It's part of the theory behind herd immunity.

Neil

As far as my maths go, it's still exponential. If the exponant is greater than one there is an increase, less than one a decrease. The exponant changes with the virus' ability to infect and the availability of new targets. As the targets reduce the exponant reduces to a value less than 1 and the new infections plateau and then decline. Reducing contact also reduces the exponant and flattens the curve.

Yes, but the curve is both exponential up and down as it passes the peak, ie a Bell Curve.

A sharp peak risks overwhelming the Health Service; not enough beds, oxygen, doctors, nurses etc, because too many sick people all arrive at the same time.

Triage normally works in favour of older people. Being more at risk of complications they often jump the queue at A&E whilst fit young men have to wait in agony.

However, whenever a health system overloads it has to prioritise. This usually done on the basis of survivability. Given the choice of treating a 95 year old flu victim with smoking related emphysema or his healthy twin brother, the fit twin gets the bed. Doing otherwise is likely to kill both patients.

The objective of the government's strategy is to avoid difficult triage choices by flattening the curve so that the health system doesn't overload. If two beds are available, both twins will be treated, no problem.

As epidemics are about the herd rather than individuals it's important that everyone cooperates. When 70+ or anyone else is asked to self-isolate, they should. It's to make sure no-one ends up competing unsuccessfully for treatment. This isn't the time for selfish or stubborn behaviour because – in this case – self-interest is more dangerous than cooperating.

Dave

[Frances IoMParticipant @francesiom58905]

Howard why do you think the Council elections due in May have been postponed for a year – they don’t want a lot of bolshie councils elected by the youngsters!

Edited By Frances IoM on 16/03/2020 12:47:01

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 16/03/2020 12:44:13:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 10:32:59:

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 15/03/2020 17:30:54:

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:33:59:

Just a point of emidemiological pedantry…

Intuitively, one might predict that the disease would spread through the population such that the number infected rose exponentially with time. But it should not, because, as the number of infected increases, there is an increasing probability that an infectious person 'tries' to infect someone who is already exposed. I don't know how significant this reduction may be, but any prediction based on exponentials should be challenged – it only 'works' if every contact is susceptible.

A little crumb of comfort?

Edited By Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:34:49

Ecologists and epidemiologists have known this for a long, long time. It's only economists who talk about 'sustainable growth' as if there's no upper limit (or 'carrying capacity' as we ecologists call it).

It's part of the theory behind herd immunity.

Neil

As far as my maths go, it's still exponential. If the exponant is greater than one there is an increase, less than one a decrease. The exponant changes with the virus' ability to infect and the availability of new targets. As the targets reduce the exponant reduces to a value less than 1 and the new infections plateau and then decline. Reducing contact also reduces the exponant and flattens the curve.

 

 

 

Yes, but the curve is both exponential up and down as it passes the peak, ie a Bell Curve.

A sharp peak risks overwhelming the Health Service; not enough beds, oxygen, doctors, nurses etc, because too many sick people all arrive at the same time.

Triage normally works in favour of older people. Being more at risk of complications they often jump the queue at A&E whilst fit young men have to wait in agony.

However, whenever a health system overloads it has to prioritise. This usually done on the basis of survivability. Given the choice of treating a 95 year old flu victim with smoking related emphysema or his healthy twin brother, the fit twin gets the bed. Doing otherwise is likely to kill both patients.

The objective of the government's strategy is to avoid difficult triage choices by flattening the curve so that the health system doesn't overload. If two beds are available, both twins will be treated, no problem.

As epidemics are about the herd rather than individuals it's important that everyone cooperates. When 70+ or anyone else is asked to self-isolate, they should. It's to make sure no-one ends up competing unsuccessfully for treatment. This isn't the time for selfish or stubborn behaviour because – in this case – self-interest is more dangerous than cooperating.

Dave

Is that not what I said?. Exponentials can increase, be constant or decline.

There are different reasons for self isolation though. With the 70+ it's about self protection by attempting to avoid infection plus the reduction of NHS caseload if succesfull. Self isolation when infected is about reducing further infection of others. In all cases co-operation is the key. If we don't co-operate it will be enforced I have no doubt.

regards Martin

Edited By Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 13:38:42

[BazyleParticipant @bazyle]

World at one had a woman suggesting those in self isolation could use their time writing letters to people. So it made me think maybe all the letters and junk mail I get should go into quarantine for a few days.

Hopefully the automation of the printing industry means ME and MEW are untouched by humans so safe once I get them out of the wrapper using the coal tongs and a pair of pliers.

Currently really hoping the Company instigates the test for working at home tomorrow but will be a bit miffed if they make it Wednesday.

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 13:31:58:

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 16/03/2020 12:44:13:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 10:32:59:

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 15/03/2020 17:30:54:

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:33:59:

…

Intuitively, one might predict that the disease would spread through the population such that the number infected rose exponentially with time. But it should not, because, as the number of infected increases, there is an increasing probability that an infectious person 'tries' to infect someone who is already exposed. I don't know how significant this reduction may be, but any prediction based on exponentials should be challenged – it only 'works' if every contact is susceptible.

…

…

As far as my maths go, it's still exponential. …

Yes, but the curve is both exponential up and down as it passes the peak, ie a Bell Curve.

…

Dave

Is that not what I said?. Exponentials can increase, be constant or decline.

There are different reasons for self isolation though. With the 70+ it's about self protection by attempting to avoid infection plus the reduction of NHS caseload if succesfull. Self isolation when infected is about reducing further infection of others. In all cases co-operation is the key. If we don't co-operate it will be enforced I have no doubt.

regards Martin

…

It's exactly what you said Martin. I was attempting to clarify your point with a graph showing the infection rate first rising exponentially to a peak, before falling off exponentially on the other side. Clearly I didn't hit the target!

Sorry if I seemed to be disagreeing, quite the opposite was intended.

I agree about enforcement too. I suspect many would be surprised at the extent of government powers available in a full-blown national emergency. (In any country.) Hopefully few of them will need to be used.

Regards,

Dave

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 16/03/2020 14:33:54:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 13:31:58:

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 16/03/2020 12:44:13:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 16/03/2020 10:32:59:

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 15/03/2020 17:30:54:

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 15/03/2020 09:33:59:

…

Intuitively, one might predict that the disease would spread through the population such that the number infected rose exponentially with time. But it should not, because, as the number of infected increases, there is an increasing probability that an infectious person 'tries' to infect someone who is already exposed. I don't know how significant this reduction may be, but any prediction based on exponentials should be challenged – it only 'works' if every contact is susceptible.

…

…

As far as my maths go, it's still exponential. …

Yes, but the curve is both exponential up and down as it passes the peak, ie a Bell Curve.

…

Dave

Is that not what I said?. Exponentials can increase, be constant or decline.

There are different reasons for self isolation though. With the 70+ it's about self protection by attempting to avoid infection plus the reduction of NHS caseload if succesfull. Self isolation when infected is about reducing further infection of others. In all cases co-operation is the key. If we don't co-operate it will be enforced I have no doubt.

regards Martin

…

It's exactly what you said Martin. I was attempting to clarify your point with a graph showing the infection rate first rising exponentially to a peak, before falling off exponentially on the other side. Clearly I didn't hit the target!

Sorry if I seemed to be disagreeing, quite the opposite was intended.

I agree about enforcement too. I suspect many would be surprised at the extent of government powers available in a full-blown national emergency. (In any country.) Hopefully few of them will need to be used.

Regards,

Dave

Probably me not reading closely enough.

regards Martin

[LimpetParticipant @limpet]

My surgery rang and cancelled my asthma review this morning, but I'm only a few miles from Torbay so it's not surprising. For me I'd rather get it over and done with early while I'm reasonably fit but my wife has just finishing a course of chemotherapy so it's still a case of only going out for essentials as we have since last October for risk of any infection being passed on to her.

Is it time to dig out the equivalent of a nuclear fallout shelter and hibernate in it for the next year ?

Keep safe all

Lionel

[Author]

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