Diesel Fuel

[VicParticipant @vic]

Another nail in the coffin for Diesel?

Electric Freightway

 

[Vic]

On Vic Said:

On not done it yet Said:

 

I’m fully (as one can be) aware of the differences between fuels and propulsion types – it’s one of the reasons why I now drive a BEV.  Cleaner, no toxic or polluting tail-pipe emissions, quiet and with so many other benefits over ICE.

We’ve decided to replace one of our Petrol cars with a BEV. It’s on order.

I saw this earlier.

Great – but if there isn’t enough available clean, green Miliband power to charge up your expensive milk float, what are you going to do about getting to the shops or the doctor’s?

[Adrian R2Participant @adrianr2]

I suppose same as we all had to during the fuel distribution strikes and Opec price shocks?

 

 

[howardb]

On howardb Said:

On Vic Said:

On not done it yet Said:

 

I’m fully (as one can be) aware of the differences between fuels and propulsion types – it’s one of the reasons why I now drive a BEV.  Cleaner, no toxic or polluting tail-pipe emissions, quiet and with so many other benefits over ICE.

We’ve decided to replace one of our Petrol cars with a BEV. It’s on order.

I saw this earlier.

 

Great – but if there isn’t enough available clean, green Miliband power to charge up your expensive milk float, what are you going to do about getting to the shops or the doctor’s?

Howard assumes internal combustion will get him reliably to the shops and doctor, but that’s based on a false assumption.  It is not true that oil will always be available as it is today or that he will be able to afford it.

Problem is, fossil fuels are a finite natural resource and god isn’t making any more.  At the current rate of consumption, oil and gas will be all but finished in 50 years, leaving our children and grandchildren with a massive problem.  And one that is starting to intrude into our lives.

50 years is the outer limit for various reasons:

• The planet has been comprehensively explored on the ground, from the air, and with satellites.   Geology is well-understood, and the technology used to detect underground oil is well-developed.  Unlikely that any big fields remain undiscovered. That’s it folks, when it’s gone it’s gone.
• As world demand for oil is increasing, it’s being extracted faster.  Less than 50 years.
• The few oil-fields that haven’t been exploited yet are in difficult locations.  Or the oil is hard to extract – trapped in shale or tar-sand. Expensive, no more easy Texas Gushers!
• As Oil is vital to industry and the military, private motoring will be low priority.  We depend on agriculture to produce food, requiring much oily machinery and fertiliser.   Worry about fertiliser because it’s made from Natural Gas, and without fertiliser we starve.

Whilst the UK still benefits considerably from North Sea Oi, it’s in decline, about 25 years left.

Shortages will force oil prices up well before 50 years is reached.   My original guestimate was that humanity had roughly 30 years to find an alternative, now I think less than that, potentially much less. Nations are already taking extreme steps to secure their energy and other resources, and that’s rocking the boat.  Previous alliances and trade-deals are in doubt.   Can’t be assumed the UK will receive oil at historically low prices, or at all.

Failure to manage the decline of gas and oil will end in a shattering crisis.  Not long left, and it takes time to build power stations, windfarms, solar, inter-connectors, and to upgrade local infrastructure.  Engineering isn’t the problem, more resistance to change.  Plenty of vested interests. People hate change especially if they don’t understand the need; ignorance is bliss.  Unfortunately kicking the can down the road and pretending bad things aren’t happening never ends well.

How much disruption we personally will see varies.  Natural causes are more likely to get me before the forecourt price of petrol goes through the roof, though it might.  My children will definitely be impacted and later generations will live in exciting times,

Plus climate change!

Dave

[howardb]

On howardb Said:

Great – but if there isn’t enough available clean, green Miliband power to charge up your expensive milk float, what are you going to do about getting to the shops or the doctor’s?

Clearly an “anti-EV” proponent – very apparent by the mythical description of EVs as ‘expensive milk floats’.  EVS are now a comparable price to out-dated fossil burners and often rather faster than those petrol counterparts.

Clearly this poster has no idea of the excess of electricity generation during the night and early morning.  Green electric from wind turbines, at this time of the day – when most people are at home and asleep – is available for charging EVs.

I charge my car (about 95% of my requirements?) during these times of cheaper electricity (while fewer, of the expensive fossil-fired power stations, are operating during these periods).

On many nights, gas fired generation could be zero now, except that the old National Grid needs ‘spinning reserve’ for restarting the grid after power outages – which have occurred as long as the grid has been in operation – and maintaining the frequency when perhaps a single power station goes off-line unexpectedly.

These EV haters don’t want to accept these simple basics of generation.  One only needs to look at the daily electricity generation graphs to see this obvious fact.

This is often the times when wind turbine output is ‘curtailed’ – taken off-line due to generation surplus – and could be used for an even higher % of green generation.

There is often (even usually) a difference of 10GW, or more,  between the maximum capacity of the grid and night-time usage, so there is plenty of power generation available for increases in electricity use (for charging EVs?) for the foreseeable future.

As every car, after 2030, will have an electric motor, these EV haters are going to either retain their present toxic, polluting fossil burner, buy and use second hand cars, stop driving or join the revolution in energy usage.🙂  It is coming, so they had better get used to it.🙂🙂

[John MCParticipant @johnmc39344]

Some interesting comments here.  I have a small electric car that’s used for local journeys.  Its ideal for that.  For the longer journeys I use petrol engined cars, not because of the range anxiety nonsense but because I enjoy driving on rural roads.  Maximum enjoyment for me comes from being able to engage with the car.  I like to be in charge so a manual gear selection with a clutch is essential.  I have an estate car, petrol, manual as well as a two seater, petrol, manual that’s enormous fun to drive.  Having driven a few electric cars, the fun aspect of driving just isn’t there, for me.

While it’s a good thing to be able to do ones bit to save the planet, how many people actually buy one for that reason?  I bought one to save my bank balance!  Any “saving of the environment” is a bonus.

As for being cheaper to run, I’m not sure.  Its like the, frankly outrageous, claims made from those who fit PV’s, batteries and heat pumps to their homes, rarely do the claims stand up to a rigorous examination.

We are being steered into buying EV’s by the government, I’m going to have my fun before I’m EV only.

 

[FulmenParticipant @fulmen]

My car uses between 17 and 21kwh/100km, right now I pay 1.7NOK/kwh. That’s 30-35NOK/100km. 35kr won’t even buy me 2liters of petrol these days, and my old car wouldn’t go more than 30-35km on that. Is that math enough for you?

But you won’t see me retiring my old gasoline guzzling motorcycle for any electric bike, regardless of range, cost or performance   🙂

[VicParticipant @vic]

I read this some time back and perhaps explains the attitude of those that don’t like EV’s?

”Hatred acts as a profound, self-imposed blindness that distorts reality, prevents rational thought, and feeds on bitterness.”

It’s been suggested that Electric Vehicles are actually a good thing for balancing the grid.

 

https://connectedkerb.com/stories-reports-and-events/the-role-of-electric-vehicles-in-balancing-the-grid/

 

[Dave HalfordParticipant @davehalford22513]

Balancing the grid would rely on all EV being able to back feed into the grid and most currently don’t. Did the influencer spiel mention how many EV would be needed to achieve that?

Didn’t VW close an EV plant recently due to lack of demand?

Electric maths work well in the city commute, but they miss out on the jump that IC gets on a long run. Public chargers are a little expensive according to my son, a run from B’ham to the lakes cost him more than a tank full would. He was not a happy bunny.

Battery life is a big variable you only need to check Autotrader over a few months for old Nissan Leaf’s to see the huge disparity in prices for cars of similar ages and mileages. The cheap ones seem to have limited battery life left, like 20% the good are still around 80%. That makes buying second hand a little risky.

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

Dave,

I’m perfectly confident it will not require ALL EVs to feed into the grid.  Neither is my car equipped for that and it only needs 1000 cars providing 1kW to increase the grid power by 1GW (or 10,000 cars for 10GW) 2-5kW would likely be the usual rate of feed/car to the grid? Nor am I bothered about that – most of the 30 million EVs, which will eventually replace ICEVs over the next 25 years, will be so equipped.

Two charge stops to Scotland and one on the way back.  Two different cost/kWh;  going was ~ 34 and ~45p and the return was ~ 47p.  I don’t think I could have managed one stop, going, but the charge costs were only 1p apart if my second stop was 5 minutes earlier (my lack of knowledge on the actual charge site position – which won’t happen next time!).  I only do that trip a couple of times each year, at most.  My other particularly ‘longer journey’ is about 230 miles to Devon.  I can cover that without charging en route, as long as I drive reasonably conservatively.  I need to stop once or twice on those journeys, btw.

 

VW has withdrawn from a car production facility in the US recently.  Tw*t trump is responsible for that!

Re cheap old EVs.  Yes, the range is likely fairly limited making them good for shorter journeys or local use.  These are the first generation of EVs (mainly Nissan Leafs with no battery thermal regulation).
More recent EVs are competitive with ICEVs and have longer initial range – and retain that range for far longer.  In addition, replacement traction batteries are now becoming more easily sourced, for these older cars, at reasonable cost (where the rest of the car is not anywhere near worn out).
Let’s face it, buying old second hand cars is risky for anyone, without the knowledge required to check them out properly.

[FulmenParticipant @fulmen]

As far as I can tell there is little to fear from buying used EVs. Battery wear is a real thing, but it’s very predictable and can be checked with the push of a button. Mine is a 2017 Leaf with less than 80’000km on it and 100% battery.

[Robert Atkinson 2Participant @robertatkinson2]

There is still the other elephant in the room: How do people without a dedicated parking palce with access to power charge the EV that is being forced on them?

Public charging is more than petrol (for my PHEV at least) and even with trenched pavements fr power leads you are still stuck if someone else parks there.

The power grid is struggling to handle the power feed from wind and solar. Some projects have been delayed due to no connection.

Robert.

[Stuart Smith 5Participant @stuartsmith5]

ndiy –

Your sums are a bit out!

1000 cars at 1kW is 1MW not 1GW.

You would need 1 million cars at 1 kW for 1GW.

 

[bernard towersParticipant @bernardtowers37738]

well said Robert and also consider the percentage of the pop who live in those type of streets!!!

[Stuart Smith 5]

On Stuart Smith 5 Said:

ndiy –

Your sums are a bit out!

1000 cars at 1kW is 1MW not 1GW.

You would need 1 million cars at 1 kW for 1GW.

 

Oops.  Correct.  I must have been asleep!  However, just being an order or difference it wouldn’t make so much difference over 32 million in 25 years time.

Hopefully attitudes (by some), towards EVs, will have improved by then.🙂

[not done it yet]

On not done it yet Said:

Dave,

I’m perfectly confident it will not require ALL EVs to feed into the grid.  Neither is my car equipped for that and it only needs 1000 cars providing 1kW to increase the grid power by 1GW (or 10,000 cars for 10GW) 2-5kW would likely be the usual rate of feed/car to the grid? Nor am I bothered about that – most of the 30 million EVs, which will eventually replace ICEVs over the next 25 years, will be so equipped.

Two charge stops to Scotland and one on the way back.  Two different cost/kWh;  going was ~ 34 and ~45p and the return was ~ 47p.  I don’t think I could have managed one stop, going, but the charge costs were only 1p apart if my second stop was 5 minutes earlier (my lack of knowledge on the actual charge site position – which won’t happen next time!).  I only do that trip a couple of times each year, at most.  My other particularly ‘longer journey’ is about 230 miles to Devon.  I can cover that without charging en route, as long as I drive reasonably conservatively.  I need to stop once or twice on those journeys, btw.

 

VW has withdrawn from a car production facility in the US recently.  Tw*t trump is responsible for that!

Re cheap old EVs.  Yes, the range is likely fairly limited making them good for shorter journeys or local use.  These are the first generation of EVs (mainly Nissan Leafs with no battery thermal regulation).
More recent EVs are competitive with ICEVs and have longer initial range – and retain that range for far longer.  In addition, replacement traction batteries are now becoming more easily sourced, for these older cars, at reasonable cost (where the rest of the car is not anywhere near worn out).
Let’s face it, buying old second hand cars is risky for anyone, without the knowledge required to check them out properly.

I saw a video the other day that said if you’re prepared to use a “slow” public charger then the cost per kW is around half the price. In essence you’re paying double for the privilege of high speed charging. Obviously if you’ve let the battery capacity drop really low and you still have a long way to go then you may want to use a high speed charger.

The government reckon up to 70% of drivers have access to off street charging. For the other 30% there is the option of destination charging. Sooner or later your car has to be parked away from where you live and this gives you the opportunity to charge it. Supermarket, leisure centre, DIY store etc will all have EV chargers once there is the demand for it. If you’re a retailer and you don’t offer charging in your car park customers will go elsewhere.

Nobody is forcing you to buy an EV Robert, you’ll be long dead before the last of the combustion engine cars disappear. You may be paying ten or twenty times the price per mile for the privilege but that’s your choice as always.

 

[VicParticipant @vic]

The number of properties in the UK with off street, or the potential for off street parking:

https://www.racfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/standing_still_off_street_parking_by_LA_A-Z.pdf

The concept of destination parking:

https://www.zapmap.com/ev-guides/destination-charging

[Vic]

On Vic Said:

On not done it yet Said:

Dave,

I’m perfectly confident it will not require ALL EVs to feed into the grid.  Neither is my car equipped for that and it only needs 1000 cars providing 1kW to increase the grid power by 1GW (or 10,000 cars for 10GW) 2-5kW would likely be the usual rate of feed/car to the grid? Nor am I bothered about that – most of the 30 million EVs, which will eventually replace ICEVs over the next 25 years, will be so equipped.

Two charge stops to Scotland and one on the way back.  Two different cost/kWh;  going was ~ 34 and ~45p and the return was ~ 47p.  I don’t think I could have managed one stop, going, but the charge costs were only 1p apart if my second stop was 5 minutes earlier (my lack of knowledge on the actual charge site position – which won’t happen next time!).  I only do that trip a couple of times each year, at most.  My other particularly ‘longer journey’ is about 230 miles to Devon.  I can cover that without charging en route, as long as I drive reasonably conservatively.  I need to stop once or twice on those journeys, btw.

 

VW has withdrawn from a car production facility in the US recently.  Tw*t trump is responsible for that!

Re cheap old EVs.  Yes, the range is likely fairly limited making them good for shorter journeys or local use.  These are the first generation of EVs (mainly Nissan Leafs with no battery thermal regulation).
More recent EVs are competitive with ICEVs and have longer initial range – and retain that range for far longer.  In addition, replacement traction batteries are now becoming more easily sourced, for these older cars, at reasonable cost (where the rest of the car is not anywhere near worn out).
Let’s face it, buying old second hand cars is risky for anyone, without the knowledge required to check them out properly.

I saw a video the other day that said if you’re prepared to use a “slow” public charger then the cost per kW is around half the price. In essence you’re paying double for the privilege of high speed charging. Obviously if you’ve let the battery capacity drop really low and you still have a long way to go then you may want to use a high speed charger.

The government reckon up to 70% of drivers have access to off street charging. For the other 30% there is the option of destination charging. Sooner or later your car has to be parked away from where you live and this gives you the opportunity to charge it. Supermarket, leisure centre, DIY store etc will all have EV chargers once there is the demand for it. If you’re a retailer and you don’t offer charging in your car park customers will go elsewhere.

Nobody is forcing you to buy an EV Robert, you’ll be long dead before the last of the combustion engine cars disappear. You may be paying ten or twenty times the price per mile for the privilege but that’s your choice as always.

 

I’ve already got an EV.
Destination charging is a myth. Go to a a 100 room hotel and they have two chargers and it’s expensive. My nearest city has  NO charging points in the main car park, The secondary one has 888 spaces and two chargers. The third one has just been refurbished and has 40 chargers out of 555 spaces. They are type 2 7kW so not fast. The website availability feature is not working. Nowhere on the website is an indication of cost but other sources say >£0.50 /kWh. You have to pay £2.30 an hour parking on top of the charging so that is another £0.30 /kWh! To compare at 4m/kWh for an average EV that’s £0.20 per mile. Even my 4WD SUV only cost £0.19 per mile on average.
Nearest Tesco Extra has 800 spaces and 3 chargers. There is also a 2 hour limit.

Almost all of my long distance journeys are to locations where there is no charging avalable. With BEV I’d have to add the cost and time of a charging stop. Your idea of spending aout 7 hours in a carpark for every charge is unrealistic. I currently spend less than 1 hour a month in a car park with charging.

I am also aware of employers who used to provide free slow charging facilities for employees who have stopped due to cost, abuse etc. One business I visit has 5 7kW  chargers for visitors but they are always in use.
Cost of running an EV is going up. The road fund licence exemption has been removed or reduced and a charge per mile is slated to start soon in the UK. I guess it won’t be long before the company car income tax breaks well reduce as well.

Robert.

 

[Joseph Noci 1Participant @josephnoci1]

I find the Pro-arguments in these discussions alway very single minded – it’s mostly about Europe, or even more about the UK and the comfy little suburbs you live in. I suppose that’s normal since what affects your comfort zone is what bites. But it remains an unbelievably selfish attitude There are other countries in the world, and they are not all in Europe or America.

How would would you proponents suggest we cope in, for example, Namibia, a country 3.5 times the size of the UK, 16 times the size of Beloved England..there are to date 17 charge stations in Namibia, all in Windhoek, 11 of them at the BMW agents, not for public use, 1 at the Windhoek Municipal offices, etc.

I live on the west coast, in Swakopmund 400km from Windhoek – no charging station between. If you have business in the Northern regions, you can drive over 550km between fuel stations . A 1ton bakkie ( if you don’t know what that is, look it up..) fully loaded, taking goods from central Nam north, will often need to do between 400 and 600km between fill-ups – even petrol bakkies don’t manage, so 90% of then are diesel. And they survive the very very rough roads too. An EV might work if you live in Swakop or Windhoek and use it to fetch croissants and the newspaper on Sunday morning, and take the kids to school on monday , but not much else.

I have a 4.2 liter 6cyl Landcruiser SUV and a 4.2liter Landcruiser bakkie,  diesel and  I do a lot of Wildlife conservation work with Lions, and travel sometimes 900km without an available fuel stop. I have carried countless lions on the back of the bakkie, 4-500kmm over terrain you would run away from, not an EV charge station in sight. There are thousands of people doing similar work to this in other fields, elephant, leopard, rhino, etc. And transport in Nam, and everywhere in Africa, depends on these tough vehicles capable of long distance travel.

During drought we run a bakkie train, carrying 10’s of thousands of liters of water to stricken rural people – try that with your precious EV. I am sure you first worlders are all very happy that we beaver away at preservation of wildlife heritage, while at the same time ensuring it becomes impossible to continue in the very near future – once all the brainwashed have switched, vehicle manufactures won’t be interested in maintaining production of good solid reliable diesel trucks we use to survive in Namibia, and much of Africa, and so the cost of such capability will skyrocket, fuel will become non-existant, not because the Planet has run out, but because no one (Read – first worlders..) wants it any more and ‘economics’ take over.  How about adding to your cost of EV the cost that will be Africa’s plight – and don’t moan and complain when the lions, jackal, rhino, elephant and everything else go the way of the Dodo …which seem to comprise so much of these arguments, over and over.

Yes, there is a problem in pollution, I agree, but I am accused of being pig headed, and sticking my head in the ground, and ignoring the issue, while you do exactly the same, just for the other side. As long as the side effects of your charge remain buried in the EV hype, as long as the effects of your charge are ignored wrt to others less fortunate, as long as the motivation is all about yourselves , masked in a belief that your are doing this for your children ( note, yours, not some child of a poor cattle herder in Africa), as long as that is the prevalent attitude, I will fight tooth and nail to ride my Cruiser till I die.   Less pollution is a good thing, but maybe you could be as obsessive about resolving some of the vicious knock on effects as you are in promoting your cause.

[noel shelleyParticipant @noelshelley55608]

Joe makes many valid points ! I’m not anti EV but living in a rural area and often doing a 400Km each way journey I don’t want to spend time recharging and there is NO recharging near where my destination is, another rural area. Towing a heavy trailer on a 320Km journey I often have to do is just not practical. Kerbside charging is not possible.

For me and what I use my vehicle for, at the moment both costs and practicality mean an EV will NOT do the job. A fellow club member lost his petrol car to his daughter who has a 100 mile round trip to uni each day as the EV she bought cannot do the mileage/ charging it would need.

When the real numbers stack up I may consider one but at the moment  NO !

Can one get a single phase fast charger on a normal domestic supply ?  Noel.

[howardbParticipant @howardb]

The Buzz Is Gone As VW Quietly Halts Production

The US factory could crank out 130,000 units pa but only 30,000 units sold in 2023.

VW Denies Halting ID. Buzz Exports To US Over Tariffs

VW had to modify seating to prevent 3 across rear seating with only two seat belts fitted for the USA.

A First in 88 Years! Volkswagen Closes a Factory in Germany

“Production line workers earned approximately 39 euros per hour and worked only 35 hours a week” – that’s nearly £34 an hour, no wonder it became uneconomic to keep going.

 

 

[VicParticipant @vic]

I read recently that Volkswagen have debt of €300 Billion. The unions in Germany have always ensured car workers get high wages. Not just Volkswagen either, other German car makers have significant financial problems as well. The biggest car market in the world is China and represented 50% of the profits of many German car makers. The Chinese seem to want mostly EV’s now and the Germans didn’t pivot quickly enough.

[noel shelley]

On noel shelley Said:

 

When the real numbers stack up I may consider one but at the moment  NO !

 

The numbers do add up. A friend does about 10,000 miles a year and his current car costs him 18p a mile in petrol. An EV would cost him about 2p a mile charged overnight on his drive. On refuelling alone it would save him £1,600 a year. The service plan is also very high on his current car. The majority of his journeys are under 100 miles but he does do a couple of long runs a year so won’t buy a BEV at the moment.

Robert, what BEV did you buy. I guess you’re going to sell it now?

[noel shelleyParticipant @noelshelley55608]

Hi Vic, Joe’s comments on life in the 3rd world in the context of EVs is not so far removed from those of rural Britain. Norfolk to Liverpool with the trailer would NOT work, nor would Norfolk to Weymouth. The village I live in has NO 3 Phase and limited 2Phase. Last years servicing costs were about £100 including MOT. My vehicle will do over 800 Km on a tank and since my journeys are often at night I have no wish to spend time en route waiting for the vehicle to recharge. Electricity for me is about 28p per unit and then there is the forthcoming tax charge. To my knowledge there are only 8 charge points with in a 15 mile radius of me and 4 of those are on a holiday camp.

If I were to live on a housing estate in an urban setting with driveway parking some issues would be solved but not the range or ability to carry a load.

So FOR ME the numbers as yet do not stack up.  Noel.

[Robert Atkinson 2Participant @robertatkinson2]

The list of off street parking linked to by Vic is interesting. Firstly it includes “off-street parking potential” but does not define this. Does it mean converting your front garden? What about planning permission and getting the council to put in a dropped kerb?
Other than that The total is only 65% What are the other 35% supossed to do? Many households have more than one car. While not many will have both on long journeys every week, some do.
It also does not clarify if the off-road parking is actually at the property or specifically allocated to particular address. Many housing estates and blocks of flats have detached garages with no power or nullocated parking spaces. This makes the provision of low cost charging expensive or impossible.
I’m in one of the < 50% areas.
I also note that the higher percentage areas tend to be more rural where people may be making loner journeys and some more affluent areas wher there are likely to be more thn one car.
Even within the areas defined there ar likely to be particular areas that have no off-road parking at all.

[Author]

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