Coronavirus

[Howard LewisParticipant @howardlewis46836]

Hope that I am not being too complacent.

Although the peak has yet to come in UK, the current infection rate seems to be about 0.0007% of the population, and the death rate looks to be about 1 in 11 million.

The media publish the figures, but never seem to do the statistics.

"Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story"?

Before someone say"It's alright for you", I am well into the age group said to be vulnerable. But Thank God, am fit and well, so far. That won't be what the doctor says next week when I accept the invitation to visit after well over a year.

There must be something life threatening the matter with me. Breathing?

Howard

[Howard LewisParticipant @howardlewis46836]

Bidet owners must be pretty flush!

Howard

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Posted by Howard Lewis on 11/03/2020 17:12:44:

Hope that I am not being too complacent.

Although the peak has yet to come in UK, the current infection rate seems to be about 0.0007% of the population, and the death rate looks to be about 1 in 11 million.

The media publish the figures, but never seem to do the statistics.

"Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story"?

Before someone say"It's alright for you", I am well into the age group said to be vulnerable. But Thank God, am fit and well, so far. That won't be what the doctor says next week when I accept the invitation to visit after well over a year.

There must be something life threatening the matter with me. Breathing?

Howard

There remains the matter of how you work out such figures. Worldometer

The link gives current numbers and also has sublinks to how these things should be calculated for nearest genuine approximations. Death rate If you look at global figures then out of 7.7 billion the infection rate is low. HOWEVER of you look at poor ol' Italy with 12000 cases, 800+ deaths and 900 in intensive care then the WHO 3.4% mortality rate looks more like optimism with 14% needing Intensive care and almost half dying.

That does bode the question of whether the Italian variant is different i.e has passaged to greater virulence or whether there is some other Italian factor that reduces resistance.

pgk

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Posted by Neil Wyatt on 11/03/2020 13:16:46:

Wish my wife had agreed to a bidet

Neil

Very few safe answers to that post… except to say that I've had a bidet here 9yrs – brilliant and wouldn't be without one now….

[OldironParticipant @oldiron]

We have a bidet in both bathrooms and would not be without them.

regards

[Pete.Participant @pete-2]

Posted by pgk pgk on 11/03/2020 18:12:46:

Posted by Howard Lewis on 11/03/2020 17:12:44:

Hope that I am not being too complacent.

Although the peak has yet to come in UK, the current infection rate seems to be about 0.0007% of the population, and the death rate looks to be about 1 in 11 million.

The media publish the figures, but never seem to do the statistics.

"Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story"?

Before someone say"It's alright for you", I am well into the age group said to be vulnerable. But Thank God, am fit and well, so far. That won't be what the doctor says next week when I accept the invitation to visit after well over a year.

There must be something life threatening the matter with me. Breathing?

Howard

There remains the matter of how you work out such figures. Worldometer

The link gives current numbers and also has sublinks to how these things should be calculated for nearest genuine approximations. Death rate If you look at global figures then out of 7.7 billion the infection rate is low. HOWEVER of you look at poor ol' Italy with 12000 cases, 800+ deaths and 900 in intensive care then the WHO 3.4% mortality rate looks more like optimism with 14% needing Intensive care and almost half dying.

That does bode the question of whether the Italian variant is different i.e has passaged to greater virulence or whether there is some other Italian factor that reduces resistance.

pgk

The WHO is paid off by CCP, I wouldn't believe anything coming out of China, the Italian figures are far more realistic, if the CCP spokesman, sorry, the WHO spokesman was to be believed, China wouldn't be erecting hospitals in 10 days to isolate the infected.

[doubletopParticipant @doubletop]

The swings from "She'll be right" to "We're all doomed" seem to be coming together.

 

From a recognised expert. **LINK**

 

Pete

Edited By Doubletop on 11/03/2020 18:59:56

Edited By Doubletop on 11/03/2020 19:00:23

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

It's certainly not being treated like common flu by many governments

Whatever it is, it's out now, and it's coming to a cinema near you

[peak4Participant @peak4]

Posted by Doubletop on 11/03/2020 18:59:29:

The swings from "She'll be right" to "We're all doomed" seem to be coming together.From a recognised expert. **LINK**

Pete

Seems a good and not too sensationalist video.
Annoyingly it cuts off at a most unfortunate moment; however if you watch it on Youtube, and go to the presenter's channel, there are subsequent clips which are also worth viewing.

Bill

[Martin of WickParticipant @martinofwick]

Posted by Pete. on 11/03/2020 18:38:33:

 

The WHO is paid off by CCP, I wouldn't believe anything coming out of China, the Italian figures are far more realistic, if the CCP spokesman, sorry, the WHO spokesman was to be believed, China wouldn't be erecting hospitals in 10 days to isolate the infected.

 

Why would the higher observed Case Fatality Rate in Italy (near 7%) be more representative than CFR for S Korea ( at 0.7%)? The wide variation across countries just illustrates how difficult it is to get to a reliable CFR. I desperately hope that the true CFR is not 7% and there is some other factor at work in Italy.

There are two issues, the number of cases/population and the case fatality rate. The overall CFR world wide is 3.6% which is well up into 1918 Spanish Flu territory, and the rate of transmission is as high or higher.

We don't know how many in the UK population will be infected eventually, but say it was 30% as an upper bound figure for Spanish flu pandemic, the projected mortality for UK would be in round terms :

CFR 3.6% = 750,000 excess deaths over 6-9 months

CFR 7% = 1,500,000 excess deaths over 6 to 9 months – basically in plague pit territory.

Before even considering the social and economic effect of numbers of the population incapacitated, these are not trivial numbers or anything to be complacent about. If you are in any doubt, go and view a few U tube vids on the Spanish flu. You would hope we would do better being a fitter and better informed population, but…..

Because the true CRF is not known, you can see why government is concerned and desperate to flatten the peak as much as possible. We are all hoping and praying CFR is as low or lower than current observed UK average of 1.3%, and that will bad enough.

 

 

Edited By Martin of Wick on 11/03/2020 19:55:42

[SamsarandaParticipant @samsaranda]

Martin you have made it all appear chillingly real.
Dave W

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

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[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[JAParticipant @ja]

Italy has an elderly population. Its birth rate has been very low for years. During my visits to Italy, 25 to 10 years ago, you just did not see children.

South Korea has a young population.

Someone, on this thread, has pointed out that the Chinese smoke an awful lot of fags.

JA

[martin perman 1Participant @martinperman1]

Has nobody noticed that a Health Minister, Nadine Dorris is now in self isolation after proving positive on Tuesday, one of her assistants has it and miss Dorris felt unwell last week whilst in the commons and in a meeting with the PM, she also held a clinic in Flitwick.

Martin P

Edited By martin perman on 11/03/2020 20:45:39

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[Roger ClarkParticipant @rogerclark]

The averaged age of the Italian population is 45.4 years against ours (Brits) which is 40 years, hence there are a lot more older Italians therefore a higher incidence of deaths. As they say there are many ways of reading statistics.

Roger

[Frances IoMParticipant @francesiom58905]

The Spanish flu actually killed many fit young – it was very unusual in this respect as death rate vs age is normally a bathtub curve but Spanish Flu was W-shaped.
Those of similar age but reduced health had a somewhat better survival rate as seen in the many German internees who had been held in internment camps in the IoM on just above starvation diet for some time were somewhat less affected when ran epidemic struck in 1918/9 than healthy American soldiers.

You may be correct in that older Chinese who have gone thru very bad famines + also are heavy smokers which may give reduced tolerance.

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Posted by geoff walker 1 on 11/03/2020 12:43:28:

Just when you thought it couldn't get any sillier, Woolworths Australia has issued a notice saying it will not refund the money for purchases of toilet paper to those now trying to take it all back to them.

No wonder a bloke spends his life in the shed talking to ancient piles of scrap metal.

Love that Pete

Just been in Woolworths in Perth. Loads of toilet paper available. Panic over

Hi Geoff. If you make it to Cairns let me know and we can catch up for a coffee down on the esplanade. Plenty of seats since they shut the gate from China. Very quiet indeed. Enjoy the Perth weather. Should be lovely this time of year.

Pete

(PS I'll let you know if I need you to bring an emergency shipment of toilet paper from Perth. Although, I calculated the half-dozen rolls I have in stock should last me at current rate until end of July!)

Edited By Hopper on 12/03/2020 01:47:42

[Danny M2ZParticipant @dannym2z]

I am the co-ordinator for a Day Club.

Basically a place for elderly residents of Albury/Wodonga to spend a few hours each week enjoying each others company, playing games, gently exercising and answering simple quizzes for mental stimulation. Sponsored by the Department Of Veteran's Affairs (an Australian Government entity)

The average age of our members is about 78 years old.

After consulting with the other volunteers we decided that if/when the local schools in Albury/Wodonga are directed to close down then our little club shall do the same and resume when it is announced that the schools are open again.

This was a difficult decision to make but as the elderly are much more vulnerable than the younger generation this seems like the best solution to a potential nasty problem.

* Danny M *

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

The Feral Gumment has just announced they will give a $750 payment to all us pensioners to stimulate the tanking economy brought on by coronavirus. We are told we should spend it, not save it, in order to stimulate the shopkeepers etc. So what new workshop equipment do I need? Hmm.

After this summer I reckon a 5kW split system air-conditioner for the workshop is top of the list. No point in getting more equipment I can't use for 4 months a year due to heat, even with insulation in the shed.

 

Edited By Hopper on 12/03/2020 09:53:08

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Here we have a newly mutated virus to which the human immune system doesn't have a defence yet. The virus spreads rather easily and is moderately nasty, killing between 1% and 7% of those who catch it after about 14 days. There is no cure, but several effective palliatives. It appears most dangerous to elderly persons who already have a serious health condition.

I've only seen figures for China where it took 20 days for the number infected to rise from about 500 to about 40000. If I've done the sums right, the number of patients infected doubles every six days or so. But, the spread in China and other countries has been slowed by aggressive containment measures – it hasn't accelerated into the population anywhere yet.

Left unmanaged a virus will spread freely until it can't find any fresh hosts. Although everyone risks catching it, not everyone will get it, and not everyone will spread it. People who have recovered cease to be fresh hosts and tend to stop the spread. So the epidemic will peak and subside, perhaps taking 2 or 3 months. (Modelling the disease is a job for experts!)

Worst case, 80% of the population will get it and – if UK mortality reached Italian levels – there would about 2.9 million deaths here. More realistically, 40% of the population will get it and mortality will be only be 1%, resulting in about 240,000 deaths. (UK normal mortality: 56000 people died here in the month January 2020.)

Hand-washing reduces the likelihood of spreading but isn't as effective as isolating all those who have been in contact with an infectious victim. Testing is vital because it allows new infectious contacts to avoid others, thus snubbing viral progress. However, it is all but impossible to stop a viral epidemic because there are so many different ways it can spread – we have to eat, see doctors, relatives and work etc. It will spread, and 40% to 50% of us catching it isn't unlikely.

Government tactics appear to be aimed at extending the time it takes the virus to achieve full penetration rather than ensuring everyone will be fully treated on demand. If the virus is allowed free rein the sheer number of severe cases arriving in a short space of time is likely to overwhelm the Health Service. That's like the flood defences failing. However, if the epidemic is spread over several months, the Health Service should be able to cope.

No need to panic, but I think we will have to tough it out somewhat.

Dave

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

I have had requests for this thread to be locked.

It is easy to say that those who find its content worry and disturbing should not follow this thread. However, in the current situation this forum and thread might be one of the few places where some of us can comfortably discuss their concerns and thoughts with people in a similar situation.

Indeed for any of us who have to self-isolate (which may well end up being most of us) forums like this could be our main human contact for several weeks.

I realise that the flip side of this is that some of the posts and thoughts can be quite frightening, especially when people start extrapolating mortality rates etc. Also some people are posting things that are clearly wrong from 'mortality rates' to saying the human immune system has no defence against the virus (how can that be if the great majority, of all ages, recover?)

So while I want this thread to continue, please consider the feelings of those who are particularly worried or stressed and are depending on this forum to keep abreast of the situation.

Please keep things factual, try to be optimistic (it seems some anti-malarials and anti-virals show promise as treatments). No doubt at some point ether will be sad news, but there should be much more good news.

Let's all pull together and try and help all forum members through this.

Thanks

Neil

[Mike PooleParticipant @mikepoole82104]

Don’t forget to wash your hands after signing the couriers touch screen with your finger or use your own stylus.

Mike

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

Every generation gets a challenge, it's defining moment/period in time

Like it or not, It's what makes the human race stronger

We've had it dead easy peasy since when? 1960? what a doddle.

So we can't really complain about our lot

If I had to choose when to exist over the last 100,000 years of human struggle, I would still pick here and now

[Author]

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