Posted by Mike Poole on 09/08/2020 07:46:20:
The 30% tariff on imports from the UK seems to be a major factor in the relocation.
Mike
Tariffs are only one of many factors. Alan asked, 'Any economists out there…?'. Actually an accountant would know the answer, as would any reasonably intelligent person allowed to study internal financial statements.
Men are cursed to see the world through the narrow slot formed by our background and experience. And being cursed, we undervalue other points of view especially when they upset our comfortable assumptions. Skilled chaps enjoying a well-paid job find it difficult to accept their employer is in deep poo. So when the company goes pear shaped it's nothing to do with them spending the last 30 years resisting innovation, demanding pay rises and nicking stuff! Or bad management, or owners failing to invest. Far easier to blame Johnny Foreigner for pulling a fast one on honest John Bull! (Or Uncle Sam.)
Low productivity has always been a feature of British manufacturing. Not clear why. One suggestion is Brits prefer working slowly for long hours while others – like the French – simply prefer to go home early. Maybe overtime is attractive compared to other UK incentives, or teams go slow to make sure no-one is laid off. A European comment on Britain's famously light-hearted approach to work was Germans like a laugh too, but only after the job is finished, not instead of.
Tariffs are a problem, but they are nothing compared to the impact of containerisation. Shipping costs are rock bottom thanks to containers being automatically lifted on and off lorries, ships, and trains. The system also greatly reduces theft, and huge economies of scale are achieved when goods move on giant container ships at minimum fuel cost per ton kilometre. At the same time, light goods are moved quickly by air. Low transport costs were once a major reason for keeping manufacturing local, and containers and air-freight took it away.
Moving jobs abroad has many attractions when transport is cheap. New factories full of new equipment built on cheap land. Tax incentives. No particular requirement for a large well-trained work-force, and enthusiastic locals glad to have decent jobs. Chaps with low expectations who don't have traditional hang-ups about labour relations, imperial measure, the American Dream or whatever.
None of this is new. British Industry peaked in absolute terms about 1890. Back then trade papers were full of complaints of British markets being flooded with cheap low quality rubbish made by good-for-nothing foreigners. Americans, Germans, Frenchmen, Swiss, Belgians…
At the moment, the best place in the world to manufacture anything is the cheapest place. Don't set up steel works in Nempnett Thrubwell, Fertiliser Plant in Westminster, or Shipbuilding in Montana.
Asia's value as a manufacturing base is likely to end when oil prices rise. Accountants watch the numbers, and know when it's time for another move. Very likely manufacturing jobs will become local again in a generation or three.
I'm wary of discussing this stuff on the forum because technology links to accountancy, which depends on economics, and economics slide inevitably into politics. Much safer to describe causes than offer solutions, because they are hedged by political complexities. Easier for Sauron to blame everything on pesky Hobbits than admit Mordor must change! No way would any self-respecting Orc volunteer for a Service Sector job.
Dave