Geoff.
I collect old engineering books and have a decent selection. However depending on which book you read, even given the same period you get different answers so I feel that this is one of those questions who’s definitive answer, if there was ever one ? has been lost in time.
I can see both sides to the question and all the answers I have read make sense.
As to shrinking on casting I feel that there were far more clever foundries about in Victorian times that later when they were supposed to have sussed this problem out.
Personally I feel that curved spokes were selected as they appealed to the Victorian sense of design, They always had to embellish their designs as a matter of personal pride in the job, but we will never know for certain.
John S.