The true cost of Diesel?

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by John MC on 04/11/2017 11:42:06:

It has been reported that CO2 levels are the highest they have been for a while…

John

'the while' John refers too is the last 800,000 years. Read all about it.

Dave

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

The inset graph shows the Roman warm period at left, mediaeval at centre and modern one at right. The roman and mediaeval ones peak at about the same level as 2000.

Unfortunately since then we've piled on another half a degree in about 15 years. We seem to have bucked the long term decline since the end of the last ice age.

Neil

[SamsarandaParticipant @samsaranda]

Perhaps the global warming 1000 years ago was due to an abundance of methane, the population used horses for transport then producing copious amounts of methane, ever stood near a horse when it has broken wind!!!

Dave

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by ChrisH on 04/11/2017 10:37:53:

…

I am not saying we are not contributing to CO2 emissions today, or pollution which we need to control, reduce and restrict on a global scale which is not without huge problems as Clive suggests, just suggesting planet Earth has natural global warming and cooling cycles that we don't control, and those are facts not wishes.

…

Chris

Edited By ChrisH on 04/11/2017 10:38:43

That's very true Chris, mankind is responsible for less than 10% of Carbon Dioxide emissions, the rest being natural. Unfortunately that doesn't mean we're off the hook.

Natural emission and absorption of CO₂ are more-or-less balanced. The gas is absorbed or released by the sea and plants interacting in a cycle. It might take a few decades, but occasional extra disruption caused by volcanic eruptions or solar activity are eventually absorbed by the system. The problem is one of balance. Human activity has been increasing the total amount of CO₂ in the environment for 300 years, with most of the burning during our lifetime. The evidence suggests that man's continuous year on year emissions aren't being dealt with by the natural cycle, so the amount of CO₂ in the atmosphere is rising. As it's a 'greenhouse gas', the planet's average temperature also rises. The greenhouse effect is made worse by other greenhouse gases, like Methane, also high because of human activity. It appears that there's a run-away effect at the poles where it's getting hotter because melted ice can't reflect sunlight.

I think the most dangerous aspect of warming is that the results are not obvious yet. What's happening is mostly statistical rather than in your face. When global warming was first mooted, the statistical evidence was rather weak. Although the evidence gets stronger with every passing year it will be a while before our noses are rubbed in it. By then it will be too late.

Does it matter? Not to me. Although the consequences could be biblical I shall be long past caring by the time trouble really kicks off. Feel a bit sorry for the grandchildren though!

Dave

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 04/11/2017 18:59:29

[Clive HartlandParticipant @clivehartland94829]

I am not going to be very helpful here, the amount of contrails from aircraft cause shadow effect of the Sun. As such it is part of the pollution on the Earth. We are as humans contributing to the warming effect if it is in fact a warming effect and not natural. Throw into this the output from active volcanoes and we then have dust in the air and sulphuorus compounds as well. How they differentiate between all the outputs can be a bit wobbly!

Also in addition the Methane given of from Bovines farting is considerable and is a key effect in the assumed global warming clutter. There is no clear attributable effect that can be pinned down exactly to suit the theories and forecasts being offered. What i do know is that in the UK seasons no longer follow those of yore. That is March winds April showers etc.The dynamics of weather have changed all around the world, flooding and drought all in a contra state. The Corealis effect on the Jet Streams around the world have shifted and this is causing large variations of weather where it is wetter Northwards and drier southwards. El Nino is an additional factor right at the core of what is called the Roaring Forties, strong winds that match up with the Jet Streams. both North and South.

No one can look into the future and predict exactly what is going to happen! I am more in mind to try it and see what happens and only then make the clear decisions on the presented evidence.

True data such as Glaciers melting away and less ice North and South are indications of warming, but, is it possible that the center of the planet is warming with so many earthquakes and activity of volcanoes being more evident and more violent ? Can Nuclear devices be having a bad effect? Shocking the Planet deeply? There are so many variables that I do not think many of them are truly connected.

[Martin DowingParticipant @martindowing58466]

Regarding gw and methane, there is one imprtant issue, usually overllooked in these discussion.

There are vast amounts of methane locked in Siberian and also Canadian permafrost, over land and in shallow seas.

Liberation of even *few percent* of said methane, which could happen fast given right conditions, will entirely destabilize our climate with potential of warming by 4-6*C in just a decade or two.

This is *serious* warming, if happened we would struggle for survival. Massive wars and famine would follow, technological civilization would end and dieoff of huge numbers of humans on the scale never seen in history would commence.

There is also mounting evidence that learge swaths of permafrost in Syberia and particuarly ESAS (East Syberian Arctic Shelf) are getting dangerously destabilized and rapid release of huge amount of methane driven by positive feedbacks is increasingly likely.

But for the moment lets enjoy while party lasts, we can do absolutely nothing to stop it.

Martin

[ChrisHParticipant @chrish]

I agree with what you say Dave, and it won't affect me either as I shall also be long gone, but like you I feel more than a bit sorry for our grandchildren and grandchildren everywhere when I consider the future.

The problem is really one of rapidly rising population world wide. That is fuelling the ever increasing need for more and more fossil fuel for all the various forms of transport and power generation, generating the increasing pollution. But it won't end there, because there will be a similar need for more and more food and water for this increasing population, with less and less land available for producing food. I think long term the increasing need for fuel, food and water as the world population continues to rocket will produce war; that war will be very nasty (aren't they all?) and will result in a serious reduction in world population. Whether or not civilisation will then sort themselves out in a sustainable way will probably determine whether mankind continues or dies out I guess.

Anyway, this is all a bit morbid, I have a perfectly good pint of Spitfire getting warm; I shall go and drown my sorrows in it and follow that pint with another!!!

Chris  

PS  I see Martin is seeing the same future for mankind, our posts crossed!

Edited By ChrisH on 04/11/2017 19:44:49

[Mike PooleParticipant @mikepoole82104]

Posted by Samsaranda on 04/11/2017 18:49:40:

Perhaps the global warming 1000 years ago was due to an abundance of methane, the population used horses for transport then producing copious amounts of methane, ever stood near a horse when it has broken wind!!!

Dave

I was taking a ride along Douglas seafront on a horse tram when the horse let one go, the tram is open front to back, luckily there were no solids or we could have been candidates for a game of freckles.

Mike

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Horses – what about staffies?

[steamdaveParticipant @steamdave]

An interesting observation from Australia on global warming, although dated June 2011:

http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/a-cool-look-at-global-warming.pdf

Dave
The Emerald Isle

[SamsarandaParticipant @samsaranda]

Neil, those as well.

Dave

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

The whole thing puts me in mind of two religions fighting it out to "prove" that man-made global warming God exists, or not

It will be a long battle, since no-one can ever prove either way

Latest from the sceptic side, yet ANOTHER graph

You can find the true believers side at bbc.co.uk

I wish they'd simply focus on reducing pollution, there's waay too much smoke and mirrors

Edited By Ady1 on 05/11/2017 09:25:30

[Ady1Participant @ady1]

What REALLY bugs me about the whole thing is the accuracy of the data

I was doing sea temp stuff in the 1980s and it was a bit of a hit and miss affair using whatever was available at the time and I would give it a minimum error of a degree or two either side

What was happening 500 and 1000 years ago is a guess made upon an entire skipload of assumptions

From the 1990s we've started getting proper accurate data, one satellite can cover an amazing area of the planet using exactly the same equipment to record its numbers

Edited By Ady1 on 05/11/2017 09:34:29

[Ian S CParticipant @iansc]

As Ady1 says, 30 years ago the sea temperature readings might have been +- a degree, a hundred years ago if they were scientifically measuring the sea temperature it would probably be nearer to 2* to 3* +-, and actual measurement before them probably irrelevant. The normal method of measuring temperature etc of prehistoric times is to measure the width of tree rings, slow growth times the rings are narrow, and fast growing time the rings are wider. There is a slice of an old Kauri tree in the Otago Museum, from memory its at least 7 or 8 ft in diameter, and I think there was a graph with that tracing the weather pattern through its life time. It was felled in 1885, and dates back to 1465/75.

Ian S C

Edited By Ian S C on 05/11/2017 11:30:33

[VicParticipant @vic]

Posted by Clive Hartland on 04/11/2017 09:12:46:

Having thought long and hard about all this I cannot see a Diesel free world by 2040!

Where did you here that Clive, I thought it was just a ban on cars and vans?

It’s 2025 and 2030 in some cases by the way and includes countries like India:

**LINK**

[Clive HartlandParticipant @clivehartland94829]

HI Vick,I was referring to vehicles, but the ramifications all seem to be relying on some unknown breakthrough on battery tech. or a simple non polluting power source! Removing the engine that consumes oil from the scene will cause a great deal of bother as the personal transport ie. electric car becomes twice the price of now.

Better start breeding horses or if we are going into an ice age some Huskies.

Clive

[VicParticipant @vic]

This new Petrol engine may help given the chance.

**LINK**

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

Oil well supplies will run out, believe me. They aren't making any more. (The current stuff was produced millions of years ago). Electric from renewable energy (or at a push, non-carbon technologies) is the way forward. Petrol and diesel cars are both on the way out. No matter what either, or both, cost comparatively (which was rebutted very early on with this thread) or in any other way.

It has long been government policy to move industry and people to larger conurbations. Blame the government for short-sightedness, if anyone/anything, but please don't harp on about the fuel – it is the engine designs that are to blame, along with those that set out the rules for testing.

[Russell EberhardtParticipant @russelleberhardt48058]

Posted by Vic on 06/11/2017 09:51:33:

This new Petrol engine may help given the chance.

**LINK**

WOW, a Diesel engine running on petrol

Russell

[Russell EberhardtParticipant @russelleberhardt48058]

Perhaps the sceptics out there who deny man's contribution to the rise in CO2 and thus global warming would like to explain the following graph, courtesy of NASA:

Russell

[SamsarandaParticipant @samsaranda]

Hi , Not Done It Yet, all very well issuing decrees about future policy , I.e. Everything will be electric, but the reality is that the technology doesn't yet exist to permit long durations without recharge, this will affect long journeys and the extended working day of delivery vans and lorries, also the huge amount of electricity that will be required for the recharges has to come from somewhere, we definitely do not have plans in place for that provision. I am of the opinion that politicians of the present are making pledges and commitments that they will themselves not have to honour because they will be long gone from office but they look as saviours to the present electorate, or am I too cynical in my outlook?

Dave

[VicParticipant @vic]

Posted by Russell Eberhardt on 06/11/2017 11:00:25:

Posted by Vic on 06/11/2017 09:51:33:

This new Petrol engine may help given the chance.

**LINK**

WOW, a Diesel engine running on petrol

Russell

No, it’s a combined spark and compression ignition Petrol engine. No Diesel fuel used at all.

[Roderick JenkinsParticipant @roderickjenkins93242]

Posted by Samsaranda on 06/11/2017 11:23:19:

Hi , Not Done It Yet, all very well issuing decrees about future policy…. … themselves not have to honour because they will be long gone from office but they look as saviours to the present electorate, or am I too cynical in my outlook?

No, I don't think so. These "plans" seem to me to be nothing more than an airy fairy arm wave. A wholesale change to electric traction will require a massive infrastructure investment that only governments can finance and the current political climate does not seem favourable to the tax hikes that would require – and that's not even considering the resistance of powerful lobbies such as the petrochemical industry.

Rod

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

but the reality is that the technology doesn't yet exist to permit long durations without recharge,

Wrong again, I afraid! It does exist. The French have recently demonstrated an 'on-the-go' charging system that can supply an electric vehicle with 20kW. Suffient for a reasonably sized car to travel at the speed limit.

Installed on through routes/trunk roads/motorways it may well offer the long distance traveller to travel considerable distances without needing to recharge at a static charging point.

Perhaps not yet developed to commercial reality, but simply a practical demonstration track to show it can be achieved. I expect they will develop it further as time goes by. Look it up, if interested. Fully Charged has it on video.

[AlaninOzParticipant @alaninoz]

but the reality is that the technology doesn't yet exist to permit long durations without recharge,

Too true! Say I want to visit my cousin in Melbourne, more than half way across Oz. From Perth to Norseman, no problem ( if there were recharging stations ) as there is a maximum of 100 km between them. From Norseman eastwards along the Eyre Highway, they are usually about 300 km apart, with nothing between them.until well into South OZ. It takes almost 2 days driving just to get out of Western Oz.

Even with the best electric car, assuming I could recharge at every fuel stop it would take at least a week to get to Melbourne instead of 3+ days due to charging times.

I have recently downsized cars and there is no way I would drive the Suzuki Celerio across Oz. I do love the fuel economy, 18 km/litre compared to the 6 of the Nissan Patrol on LPG or the 7 of the Holden Rodeo. The air con is much better than the older vehicles as well.

In Europe/UK, electric is the way to go, here we have too much distance. I live 5 km from the closest shops.

Alan

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