Coronavirus

[Tony Pratt 1Participant @tonypratt1]

Posted by Ady1 on 19/03/2020 15:38:21:

So with everyone stocking up on vast quantities of food, then hiding in their house and taking no significant exercise…

…next years health emergency is going to be an obesity crisis

We already have an obesity crisis, have had for years

Tony

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Posted by Tony Pratt 1 on 19/03/2020 16:41:40:

Posted by Ady1 on 19/03/2020 15:38:21:

So with everyone stocking up on vast quantities of food, then hiding in their house and taking no significant exercise…

…next years health emergency is going to be an obesity crisis

We already have an obesity crisis, have had for years

Tony

These comments remind me of Brian W. Aldis' "Heliconia" trilogy.

Given me an idea for a thread!

Neil

[Martin ConnellyParticipant @martinconnelly55370]

I've just read a report that type A blood group is being hit harder than type O. Feeling a bit less worried as I am type O.

Martin C

[Howard LewisParticipant @howardlewis46836]

That might be a very interesting aspect, Martin.

Wonder if any of the experts have considered that aspect? Then it brings up the question of the blood groups of those worst affected, her in UK or elsewhere.

It must be getting to me. Have started going through 35 mm slides and chucking out ones that don't show the family.

With the number accumulated over the years that should occupy us for a lot of the "confined to barrack" period!

Howard

[Cornish JackParticipant @cornishjack]

There's no shortage of self-centred, greedy people in the UK as demonstrated. Nothing partcularly new – it happened with the 'salt shortage' in the 60s (?) and the potato similar in the 70s (?). A nation encouraged to believe that " there is no such thing as society" is reacting exactly as one would expect.

I understand that, so far, just one supermarket chain (Morrisons) are showing some appropriate initiative. Apparently, they will pack up a standard selection of 'dry goods' ready for instant collection, to restrict the greed merchants and ensure that everyone gets fair play. Not perfect, perhaps, a vast improvement on the present free-for-all!

rgds

Bill

[JAParticipant @ja]

Posted by Cornish Jack on 19/03/2020 18:49:55:

There's no shortage of self-centred, greedy people in the UK as demonstrated. Nothing partcularly new – it happened with the 'salt shortage' in the 60s (?) and the potato similar in the 70s (?). A nation encouraged to believe that " there is no such thing as society" is reacting exactly as one would expect.

rgds

Bill

My memory of the salt shortage was that it happened in the early 80s because the miners in Siberia had gone on strike. This followed the bread shortages because of strikes in big bakeries. I even tried making bread.

JA

[speelwerkParticipant @speelwerk]

For almost 40 years now I work from home, but it has never been with such a strange feeling as now, and this is only the begin, who know's where it ends. Niko.

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

In the US Donald Trump has (possibly) jumped the gun with a readily manufactured generic drug called hydroxychloroquinine, but it's hard not to hope he is right.

It has promise as a treatment (it is too toxic for long term preventative use) so although it won't stop the disease it might save lives.

I think this is something worth seeing as a real ray of hope:

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0

And just to be clear it was in China that they discovered its potential, not the US.

Neil

[BazyleParticipant @bazyle]

Posted by JA on 19/03/2020 19:44:01:

My memory of the salt shortage was that it happened in the early 80s because the miners in Siberia had gone on strike.

It was daft because I think all the salt in the UK comes from mines in Cheshire. Wasn't there a sugar shortage, mid seventies? I think that's when I gave up sugar in tea.

[Nigel Graham 2Participant @nigelgraham2]

The WI Hall next-door-but-four has Cancelled or Postponed stickers on practically everything on its notice-board – including the next monthly coffee-morning which is open to the public – the lathe as well as distaff side. (I can vouch for the home-made cakes and my neighbour's home-made marmalade!)

Today's local by-election has been postponed of course… the decision didn't reach the local officials until yesterday evening, by when the local paper had said it is going ahead and if you are worried, you can bring your own pencil. (Errr, what about the polling-station's door-handle, or the lights push-button on the nearby pedestrian crossing?).

===

As for model-engineering….

My club has had to suspend everything as its club-room and tracks are within the grounds of a school that has started locking its gates after the now-limited school hours.

We meet of course well outside school hours, and in our own building. The grounds also hold a public sports-centre and pitches which will be just as unavailable to their own out-of-school-hours users, too. Hard to see what the ' lock-out ' policy will, or is meant to, achieve given that we external users do not enter any part of the school itself; other than perhaps reassuring parents and County officials. (I wonder who would be the more anxious?)

NAME is establishing whether to hold its forthcoming AGM – I've said I am prepared still to attend but also for it being put off.

+++

Still, my local pub is open for business. My caving-club in Somerset seems still available to members (though my other, in Yorkshire, is presently day-use only, having suspended overnight accommodation even for members).

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Fascinating how scientific modelling as a predictor of future trends (viz the course of Coronavirus) is suddenly considered valid, even vital, by the likes of the President of the United States. **LINK**

But a month ago, scientific modelling of predicted climate change was "fake news" and part of a worldwide conspiracy by those dastardly, untrustworthy, self-serving, know-nothing scientists to line their own pockets.

Great to see science returned to its rightful place: the best way we have of predicting what might happen next and of doing something about it.

Let's hope it continues when this pandemic is over.

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Please have hope, studies on the efficacy of Hrydroxychloroquine are coming through and giving real reasons for optimism that there is a cure. This was a small study, but big enpough to be statistically significant:

http://www.mediterranee-infection.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Hydroxychloroquine_final_DOI_IJAA.pdf

"At day6 post-inclusion, 100% of patients treated with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin combination were virologicaly cured comparing with 57.1% in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine only, and 12.5% in the control group (p<0.001)."

Neil

[HopperParticipant @hopper]

Yes there is certainly hope. There are several of these stories going in different countries around the world at the moment. One in China using a drug made by the old Fujifilm company, one in Australia also using chloroquine malaria medication and others. Hopefully by using existing medications, the year long wait to test a vaccine can be avoided.

The study you linked to looks very promising. No shortage of further subjects to mount a larger trial and verify it. Trump is already talking about fast tracking approval  over the objections of medical scientists who want longer trials etc. Could get interesting.

Edited By Hopper on 20/03/2020 10:51:52

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Nigel Graham 2 on 19/03/2020 23:32:35:

… We meet of course well outside school hours, and in our own building. … Hard to see what the ' lock-out ' policy will, or is meant to, achieve given that we external users do not enter any part of the school itself; other than perhaps reassuring parents and County officials. (I wonder who would be the more anxious?)

… I've said I am prepared still to attend …

… my local pub is open for business. My caving-club in Somerset seems still available to members (though my other, in Yorkshire, is presently day-use only, having suspended overnight accommodation even for members).

Nigel, are you seeing this epidemic as a personal inconvenience and still meeting other people as normal? The point of the lock-down is to minimise contact with others, both personally and in terms of the trail of gunk we leave behind. By locking the school, it's less likely to pick up virus-laden smears.

At the moment it's not brave or clever to carry on pubbing and clubbing, or to attend unnecessary meetings. Reducing contact makes it much harder for the virus to spread. It protects the individual and – more important – everyone they meet.

Coronavirus has overloaded the Italian Health System and vulnerable people are dying unnecessarily as a result. It appears Italians carried on as normal for too long after the virus was firmly established in the community. In China, the government reacted with an energetic lock-down and yesterday had no new domestic cases reported. All their new cases are due to citizens returning from abroad. Same story in other countries.

Time to take sensible precautions!

Dave

[Cornish JackParticipant @cornishjack]

JA and Bazyle – your memories of salt shortage etc. are probably correct.

The point I was making was that, as a nation, we Brits are, and always have been, greedier and more selfish than we care to admit. The starkest indication came from the clip in yesterday's TV news of the exhausted care worker going home unable to find BASIC necessities in her local shops. It was followed by a shot of a supermarket in the much denigrated Italy where supplies were practically normal.

Presumably 'Gordon Geckos' find the UK a more attractive proposition than the Mediterranean!

rgds

Bill

[Dave HalfordParticipant @davehalford22513]

Posted by JA on 19/03/2020 19:44:01:

Posted by Cornish Jack on 19/03/2020 18:49:55:

There's no shortage of self-centred, greedy people in the UK as demonstrated. Nothing partcularly new – it happened with the 'salt shortage' in the 60s (?) and the potato similar in the 70s (?). A nation encouraged to believe that " there is no such thing as society" is reacting exactly as one would expect.

rgds

Bill

My memory of the salt shortage was that it happened in the early 80s because the miners in Siberia had gone on strike. This followed the bread shortages because of strikes in big bakeries. I even tried making bread.

JA

The salt 'shortage' came on the back of all the other shortages. Some wag said loudly in the supermarket queue (lacking a facebook feed in the 70's) "There's going to be a salt shortage" causing the suggestable, selfish and stupid to all rush off and stock up with a years supply. The whole of Cheshire was and still is pretty much held up by the stuff.

Today you now can't get a freezer since some moron said you can freeze milk. I wonder (hope) if the plastic bottles will split.

[S.D.L.Participant @s-d-l]

Posted by Dave Halford on 20/03/2020 11:42:54

Today you now can't get a freezer since some moron said you can freeze milk. I wonder (hope) if the plastic bottles will split.

They dont split, we always freeze any full bottles of milk left when we go away

Steve

[SakuraParticipant @sakura]

There never was a sugar shortage. It was created to increase the price, just like several other, so called, shortages. Whilst you couldn't get it in the shops hauliers were moving tons of it into storage. My father was a lorry driver and bringing cwt bags of it home. There as no shortage in our village, only in the shop!

[TrevorhParticipant @trevorh]

Yes you can Freeze Milk in its plastic bottle, AS long as you remove a portion to allow for expansion during the freezing process

Trevor

Ex industrial refrigeration/Blast freezer engineer

[Howard LewisParticipant @howardlewis46836]

In a couple of weeks, when everyone's house is jammed full of rice, pasta, bread and loo rolls, the Supermarkets will have the same problem of where to put the stock.

Maybe, next month all those items will be on special offer to run down the excess stock?

Just keep the healthy off the streets, so that they do not spread the bug they haven'y got!

The 1 o'clock news said that 140 had now died in UK. All, other things being equal (Which they are not,  ) that represents a chance of 1 in 478, 000 of it killing you, based on a population of 67,000,000.

The projected UK death toll is just under the total death toll, worldwide, so far.

Draw your own conclusions..

Howard

Emojis!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited By Howard Lewis on 20/03/2020 14:49:45

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

For the record, my astro club has gone into 'isolation' but we are going to get email updates and we have a healthy, if occasionally rowdy, What'sapp group to share out tales of strange deeds done after dark…

Neil

[SamsarandaParticipant @samsaranda]

Howard are your calculations flawed, are you assuming that everyone of the 67,000,000 will be infected to give your 1 in 478,000; perhaps you know something we don’t ?
😳Dave W

[duncan webster 1Participant @duncanwebster1]

Perhaps those who refuse to practice social distancing should have to sign a register waiving their right to NHS treatment for respiratory illness?

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Howard Lewis on 20/03/2020 14:48:11:

…

Just keep the healthy off the streets, so that they do not spread the bug they haven'y got!

The 1 o'clock news said that 140 had now died in UK. All, other things being equal (Which they are not, ) that represents a chance of 1 in 478, 000 of it killing you, based on a population of 67,000,000.

The projected UK death toll is just under the total death toll, worldwide, so far.

Draw your own conclusions..

…

I think the figures aren't useful for planning purposes?

1:478,000 isn't a probability, it expresses the number of deaths so far as a proportion of the population. The ratio changes day-by-day, and – on it's own – isn't informative.

1 in 478,000 says nothing about our chances of catching Coronavirus, or how dangerous catching it is likely to be, or how long the epidemic will last. Those are probabilities. They depend on how infective the virus is, how close we get to someone who has it already, how hard hitting the virus is, and whether or not there are effective counter-measures.

Comparing the projected UK death toll with the current world death toll is meaningless. One is a prediction, the other a moving target. It's the rate of change that matters.

The infection rate allows the number of people likely to catch the disease in future to be calculated. The sum is fairly simple but there are a lot of variables that modify the result. For example, if everyone rushed out to shake hands with known flu victims the disease would accelerate through the population like a Formula 1 racing car. By keeping 2 metres apart and avoiding contact, the virus gets less opportunity to find new hosts, and the disease accelerates like an Austin 7 with a missing spark plug. It might even snuff out altogether as was done to Smallpox.

Dave

[blowlampParticipant @blowlamp]

Does anyone know anyone who's died of this thing yet?

Martin.

[Author]

Posts