I fear that such analysis is tainted with political bias, but there again isn't all history? And, dare I say it, this thread?
It's not really about politics, it's about observing human society from a non-biased perspective which only comes from the pragmatism of old age, the world will be what the world will be.
And it makes you money
predicting Brexit netted 10-20 to 1 and predicting Trumpy netted 5-10 to 1, pure cash, tax-free and legal
I'm rubbish at predicting Scottish stuff though, too close and unconsciously bias, too many local parameters. Scottish politics is a strange business