Coronavirus

[Harry WilkesParticipant @harrywilkes58467]

My concern is a second wave not so much due to the easing of restrictions but more for the general attitude to it, maybe I'm not alone but for every person i know who as followed the guidelines I know several that haven't so i think this 'it won't get me' will come back and bite us in the backside.

H

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by J Hancock on 31/05/2020 12:42:49:

We are all, two or three generations on, survivors of the ' Spanish Flu'.

No lockdowns then, so what happened ?

…

For sure, the next few weeks will show whether all this 'sacrifice' has been worthwhile, or a complete waste.

The 1918 pandemic killed more than the First World War. About 150,000,000 people died of Flu.

UK policy is based on a prediction that unconstrained Covid-19 would kill about 300,000 Brits. There's no doubt lock-down is effective. As of yesterday we're only up to 38,768 deaths. However that number is too high in that the UK death rate is significantly worse than all comparable countries. Catching Covid-19 in the UK is much more dangerous than catching the same bug in Germany. Something is wrong here.

Thee largest number of Covid-19 deaths so far have occurred in the USA, over 105,000 as of yesterday. The most likely reason is relatively weak lock-down in the US. We've yet to see what Corana does to a country with poor health services and no lock-down. It may be out-of-control in Brazil. As many countries haven't really kicked off yet, the grand-total could still get nasty.

Certainly can be argued the sacrifice is a complete economic waste. Cheaper to let the virus bump off the old folk, but all the old folk I know are nice people.

Dave

[duncan webster 1Participant @duncanwebster1]

USA population is 5 times ours, so per head they are doing better than UK. However I don't know how that works out if you allow for variation across different areas of both countries. Using SOD's figures UK has 587 deaths/million, USA total is 318, Montana is 17/million, but there is a lot of room in Montana. New York City is 1956/million, which is really scary.

The comparison is difficult anyway, different countries count in different ways. According to the FT **LINK**

Until Thursday, the UK had a higher rate of death than in any country for which high-quality data exist

Of course when we get our world beating app and our world beating track and trace everything will be OK. Don't hold your breath.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

. . . and then normalised for excess deaths, reporting criteria variation, age demographic, population heath, smoking rates etc etc

regards Martin

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 31/05/2020 15:42:15:

UK policy is based on a prediction that unconstrained Covid-19 would kill about 300,000 Brits. There's no doubt lock-down is effective. As of yesterday we're only up to 38,768 deaths.

Dave

We were also told that lockdown could keep the death rate below 20,000.
the trouble is that all these estimates (guesstimates) were pulled out of a statisticians backside based on numbers from other countries with differing counting methods + assumptions like actually having equipment.

it'll only be after it's over (if it ever is) that a count-back will tell us whether the overall death rate was improved by lockdowns (slower death rates, lower levels of immunity lasting unknown time) compared to letting it go wild (high initial death rate and high initial percentage immune population) with the differeing time frames to economic recovery/performance.

I wonder how many folk will now follow the regime of masks throughout (ordinary) flu season?

pgk

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

I though they said we would be doing really well if we kept it below 20,000 actually.

Martin

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember32069]

[This posting has been removed]

[FLguyParticipant @flguy]

I'm so gratefull to have my shop. Spending shop time takes away some of the worries of how bad things are in this Old World. Most any thing we require is being ordered and sent to us so very little need or want to venture out.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by FLguy on 31/05/2020 17:58:06:

I'm so gratefull to have my shop. Spending shop time takes away some of the worries of how bad things are in this Old World. Most any thing we require is being ordered and sent to us so very little need or want to venture out.

I guess there are many of us who are actually enjoying the lockdown for the workshop time it has brought. (A strangely guilty feeling with all the pain and loss). Telling a model engineer they have to spend all their time in the workshop is a bit like throwing Brer Rabbit in the briar patch.

Thank the Lord we arn't stuck at the top of some tower block somewhere.

regards Martin

[SteviegtrParticipant @steviegtr]

Well our Bev starts back nursing in the morning. Private clinic in Leeds. They have a tent set up outside for testing prior patients the day before. The NHS has asked if they will do testing for them on a 7 day a week basis. So looks like Bev is going to be busy doing her theatre nurse work & Covid testing.

Steve.

[Simon CollierParticipant @simoncollier74340]

One interesting and surprising finding is that patients with lung disease such as asthma and worse have not fared as badly as predicted. Obesity, heart disease, and diabetes are worse indicators. Also, immunosuppressed people including transplant recipients, have recovered, and there is a good immunological reason for that given that it is often the cytokines storm that kills. Another interesting finding is that they were initially putting people on ventilators when their oxygen saturation levels fell below a certain figure, but they learned that with this particular disease, low sats were not so dire, so fewer going onto ventilators. This virus is more of a blood vessel disease rather than specifically a lung disease.

We went hard early, closing borders and lockdown. Now only a handful of new cases a day, from returning travellers who are quarantined, and lockdown is being lifted. The second wave will be the problem and people will by then be resistant to restrictions. But there are some promising vaccines coming along. Whatever happens this whole business is history in the making.

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 31/05/2020 17:12:43:

I though they said we would be doing really well if we kept it below 20,000 actually.

Martin

Political speak for 'we expect less than 20K and then we'll tell everyone how wonderful we were'

38.7K and rising.

Differing testing percentages and how deaths are counted – as in not everyone that might have it gets tested and at the moment population testing is in small samples that aren't too statistically valid. We're told that 7% UK population tests +ve for antibodies (rextrapolated from small samples) but less than 0.4% population has been tested and found postive for the virus (i.e. potentially sick people) with 13% mortality.

If 7% population actually has had it then mortality rate is 0.8%.These are such wildly different figures that it's impossible to know what to believe.

pgk

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by pgk pgk on 01/06/2020 06:17:40:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 31/05/2020 17:12:43:

I though they said we would be doing really well if we kept it below 20,000 actually.

Martin

Political speak for 'we expect less than 20K and then we'll tell everyone how wonderful we were'

38.7K and rising.

Differing testing percentages and how deaths are counted – as in not everyone that might have it gets tested and at the moment population testing is in small samples that aren't too statistically valid. We're told that 7% UK population tests +ve for antibodies (rextrapolated from small samples) but less than 0.4% population has been tested and found postive for the virus (i.e. potentially sick people) with 13% mortality.

If 7% population actually has had it then mortality rate is 0.8%.These are such wildly different figures that it's impossible to know what to believe.

pgk

I thought they said we would be doing really well if we kept it below 20,000 actually.

Martin

Political speak for 'we expect less than 20K and then we'll tell everyone how wonderful we were'

Except it wasn't a politician who said it.

Martin

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

<<On 17 March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said keeping the number of UK deaths below 20,000 would be a "good result" from the COVID-19 pandemic. >>

Link

He may not be an elected MP but still a gov mouthpiece but not a point I intend to argue further.

If I recall correctly they also stated that unchecked COVID would kill 500K citizens which is also 0.8% population and unless there is some startling new therapy/vaccine then we're on track. It'll just take a whole lot longer and as a series of small numbers be more 'acceptable' to the public albeit more devastating to the economy and non-COVID public health.

I remain cynical.

pgk

[blowlampParticipant @blowlamp]

I'm more in line with the views of Peter Hitchens and the Doctors Dan Erickson and Artin Massihi.

I still (personally) know of no one that has had it, let alone died from it.

We're going to pay the real price in the coming months and it won't be from deaths due to this virus.

Martin.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by pgk pgk on 01/06/2020 09:26:49:

<<On 17 March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said keeping the number of UK deaths below 20,000 would be a "good result" from the COVID-19 pandemic. >>

Link

He may not be an elected MP but still a gov mouthpiece but not a point I intend to argue further.

If I recall correctly they also stated that unchecked COVID would kill 500K citizens which is also 0.8% population and unless there is some startling new therapy/vaccine then we're on track. It'll just take a whole lot longer and as a series of small numbers be more 'acceptable' to the public albeit more devastating to the economy and non-COVID public health.

I remain cynical.

pgk

He may not be an elected MP but still a gov mouthpiece

I am sure Patrick would strenuously disagree with you.

I would never mistake you for someone who isn't cynical.

regards Martin

[blowlampParticipant @blowlamp]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 01/06/2020 10:11:08:

Posted by pgk pgk on 01/06/2020 09:26:49:

<<On 17 March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said keeping the number of UK deaths below 20,000 would be a "good result" from the COVID-19 pandemic. >>

Link

He may not be an elected MP but still a gov mouthpiece but not a point I intend to argue further.

If I recall correctly they also stated that unchecked COVID would kill 500K citizens which is also 0.8% population and unless there is some startling new therapy/vaccine then we're on track. It'll just take a whole lot longer and as a series of small numbers be more 'acceptable' to the public albeit more devastating to the economy and non-COVID public health.

I remain cynical.

pgk

He may not be an elected MP but still a gov mouthpiece

I am sure Patrick would strenuously disagree with you.

I would never mistake you for someone who isn't cynical.

regards Martin

I'm glad I'm cynical – the 'new reality' won't be quite so shocking when it lands.

Martin.

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Please let's keep away from politics.

As for the reality or otherwise of the extent of the virus, I know people who have had the virus and recovered.

My brother, who currently works in the care of vulnerable young adults got mis-assigned to an elderely persons care home a while back. He found himself caring for someone whose neighbours in the rooms either side had both died from the virus and had a positive test come back the day my brother was with him. My brother then had to self-isolate but fortunately the PPE he had was effective and he didn't get it.

My other brother's partner works at a GP surgery and has heard some very sad stories coming out of local hospitals and care homes.

Neil

Neil

[JAParticipant @ja]

If I was young again I would become an academic statistician. I would make a lot of money analysis infection and death rates during this virus for lots of governments so that they might be able to handle the next pandemic.

At present no government has a clue what is going on. The experts have no ideas and make it up as they go along. Politicians make fools of themselves and the media just stirs the pot.

I could go on, it does appear that society is ripe for revolution.

JA

Neil, apologies, posted before I saw your recent posting. Delete this if you want.

Edited By JA on 01/06/2020 13:43:23

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

This website tracks 215 countries, plus a few cruise ships, where Corana Virus is reported.

The top 13 yesterday (31 May) were:

I've added a column on the right showing Total Deaths as a percentage of Total Cases. It compares the number of deaths with a Certificate identifying Covid-19 as cause with the number positively tested for Covid-19, ie Total Cases. Both numbers imply medical supervision, probably hospitals. I don't think the figure has any relationship to population density or other external factors, it indicates the effectiveness of the Health Care system.

Worst performer is France(15.25%), then Italy(14.34%), and the UK(14.01%)

Comparable countries include: Spain(9.47%), Canada(8.02%), USA (5.78%), and Germany (4.69%) On the face of it a positive Covid-19 test is about 3 times more likely to be fatal to a Brit than a German.

Why?

Too early to tell, years of analysis and argument ahead! I suspect the root cause in the UK was shortages, particularly ventilators and the staff needed to run them. Just a guess because history suggests the UK is good at theory but very disinclined to spend money preparing for emergencies that might never happen. After all we are caught with our pants down every time it snows!

Another comment, only a small number of countries have so far reported more than 100,000 cases. There are plenty of countries nowhere near this number, therefore their statistics are unreliable. For example Australia has only had 7195 positive tests, which sounds like good news and maybe is. But we don't know yet if countries like Australia have successfully weathered the storm, or if the virus will run amok there in due course. Brazil, Mexico and Chile all reported similarly low numbers until recently, now they're showing Corona Virus is spreading rapidly.

It's not over until the fat lady sings!

Dave

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

I suspect the root cause in the UK was shortages, particularly ventilators and the staff needed to run them.

Are you making this up as you go along? Can you point me to a documented case where a patient was not put on a ventilator because none were available?

I may as well add that it will probably never be over because obesity is a major risk factor and therefor the Fat Lady may never sing. Quite happy with your post until you got to "Why ?"

regards Martin

[Steve Skelton 1Participant @steveskelton1]

SOD how on earth can you justify the deaths per case column. The UK has no idea (as is probably the case with most nations) how many cases there have been or are occurring each day so this is totally irrelevant.

Steve

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

There are so many variables to consider that analyses are difficult.. Simply consider a country with more than adequate testing capacity testing any and every in-contact and individual that feels slightly unwell and they will have a higher number of +ve cases compared to a country that only tests likely candidates that need hospitalisation. Perhaps more important is also the type of test used since these will vary in % of false positive or negative results (sensitivity v specificity; also depends on the lab and tech doing the test). One should also consider how a death cert re coronavirus is decided upon – actually by a proven test or a convenient reason to put on a certificate – and if it was by proven test was that the real cause of death or a contributing factor only.

It was mentioned earlier in this thread that the original idea of COVID19 was as a respiratory disease but it manifests as a vascular disease in many patients such that ventilators aren't the wonder answer – it's also access to other support measures including dialysis for a subset of those who fall ill and probably access to clinical acumen and clinicians who aren't overwhelmed – more so than technology?.

Just look at some of our own confusing figures: link
Deaths from C-19 38K+
Deaths where C-19 is mentioned 45K+
Deaths higher than usual for the time of year 59K+

Gov published figures for regions vary wildly too Link… but that will be as much down to when it got in there and how the local population has taken to control measures Indeed areas with low pecentage cases are those waiting to catch up…

pgk

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Steve Skelton 1 on 01/06/2020 15:25:37:

SOD how on earth can you justify the deaths per case column. The UK has no idea (as is probably the case with most nations) how many cases there have been or are occurring each day so this is totally irrelevant.

Steve

Steve, I thought I'd explained.

• The number of cases is determined by a Covid test. It's not an estimate of the number of infections in the community, its the count of confirmed infections, ie people ill enough to be tested.
• The number of deaths is counted off Death Certificates

On the face of it, the ratio indicates the effectiveness of the health service, ie the likelihood of an unsuccessful outcome after a patient tested positive.

I suggested shortage of ventilators as a cause; not having enough of them means patients who would have survived don't. Likewise, shortage of staff to manage patients on ventilators would have the same effect. It's not a criticism of the Health Service; no matter how caring people are, they can't deliver an effective service unless all the essential resources are available. Another possibility is genetic make-up of the victims, or maybe difficulties in Care Homes allowing the virus to spread rapidly inside vulnerable communities. Possibly it's a statistical artefact caused by different reporting systems. I don't know.

My point is the cause of this disparity between countries has to be explained whatever it is. Not about blame, unless stupidity or corruption was involved. If another country did something clever, we should copy them. If we made a mistake, it should be fixed. The idea is to do better next time, and it can't be done if embarrassments are swept under the carpet.

Dave

[blowlampParticipant @blowlamp]

Peter Hitchens latest interview on talkRADIO this morning.

Perhaps listen to the early interviews and see how Mike Graham has gradually changed his outlook on this matter.

 

STOP PRESS!!

Had to LOL at this headline. 

Coronavirus: Sex during lockdown with someone outside your household is illegal from today

 

 

 

Martin.

 

 

 

Edited By blowlamp on 01/06/2020 16:23:11

Edited By blowlamp on 01/06/2020 16:24:22

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