Coronavirus

[J HancockParticipant @jhancock95746]

R4 6am news this morning, local reporter 'microphoned' the traffic in Bejin/Pekin as nearly back to normal !

[Ian Skeldon 2Participant @ianskeldon2]

Just a quick update.

I have been pulled back from the front line at my hospital. It has been a very demanding and stressful period but I have been lucky and am currently healthy and able to post this message.

I would like to express my gratitude to all of those that passed on messages of support, it really does make it easier knowing that people are grateful for the work being done. I just hope that there will be no further spikes or prolonged cases of covid 19 and wish all of you good health.

Ian

[old martParticipant @oldmart]

I was waiting for this thread to pop back up rather than be accused of scaremongering. We are not out of the danger yet by a long chalk. North Somerset has one of the lowest numbers of CO19 in the country, but I have had some rather worrying news about Weston General Hospital. They are currently down 40% on staff, no new admissions, 200 CO19 patients and the A&E is closed. All emergencies are being taken to Taunton or Bristol.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

I think the most usefull comment heard on the briefings recently was from one of the scientific advisors and that was that the downward trends we have been seeing over the last 10 weeks are artificial. It's waht we have brought about. The virus has not changed it's our behaviour that has changed the situation and irresponsible behaviour can reverse the ground we have gained.

regards Martin

[Mick B1Participant @mickb1]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 27/05/2020 15:38:16:

…

the downward trends we have been seeing over the last 10 weeks are artificial.

…

regards Martin

Yes, but so are farms, cities, transport and irrigation infrastructures and waste disposal systems. We depend on them, and wouldn't be able to generate the populations to support an epidemic without them. We can, and sometimes do, loot the farms, burn the cities and disrupt the infrastructures.

We'd just better act sensibly.

Edited By Mick B1 on 27/05/2020 15:48:25

[Tony Pratt 1Participant @tonypratt1]

Posted by old mart on 27/05/2020 15:24:37:

I was waiting for this thread to pop back up rather than be accused of scaremongering. We are not out of the danger yet by a long chalk. North Somerset has one of the lowest numbers of CO19 in the country, but I have had some rather worrying news about Weston General Hospital. They are currently down 40% on staff, no new admissions, 200 CO19 patients and the A&E is closed. All emergencies are being taken to Taunton or Bristol.

40% staff off work is one hell of a problem, we are going to live in more uncertain times for a good while yet.

Tony

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Agree we're not out of the woods yet. Round here increasing numbers have got bored and ignoring the separation rules. As the infection rate has fallen due to the lock-down, 'common sense' suggests the danger is over, even though it isn't. It could bounce back. The 1918 Pandemic (which killed about 150 million people), came in 3 waves, not one. Let's hope Covid-19 fizzles out after only one.

Looking at the international statistics it appears that whilst Europe is over the worst, plenty of other places are just starting up. Even if there isn't a second wave where we happen to live, the pandemic is still causing big trouble elsewhere. It'll be a while before the world gets back to normal.

My plan, because I can, is to simply keep my distance for the foreseeable future. I'm not rushing out to Pubs, Clubs, Cinemas, Public Transport or a Rave just yet. But I'm not worried about taking deliveries or the odd 2 metre chat.

Dave

 

 

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 27/05/2020 16:08:16

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Posted by Mick B1 on 27/05/2020 15:46:06:

Posted by Martin Kyte on 27/05/2020 15:38:16:

…

the downward trends we have been seeing over the last 10 weeks are artificial.

…

regards Martin

Yes, but so are farms, cities, transport and irrigation infrastructures and waste disposal systems. We depend on them, and wouldn't be able to generate the populations to support an epidemic without them. We can, and sometimes do, loot the farms, burn the cities and disrupt the infrastructures.

We'd just better act sensibly.

Edited By Mick B1 on 27/05/2020 15:48:25

The point being that the virus hasn't got less infective or less harmfull. Our behaviour to now has had a benificial effect.

regards Martin

[Ian Skeldon 2Participant @ianskeldon2]

One thing I have seen for myself is that this virus seems to be very infectious it infects people so easily, the other thing I have seen is that the outcome will vary a great deal. The general health of the newly infected person does make some difference, as do other factors such as gender and general fitness level, it also seems to be more serious for non European people and of course some elderly people.

I would agree that we are a long way away from breathing a sigh of relief, this is the time the virus will catch those that believe that it is safe to go back to doing normal things and that could cause a second wave or spike in the reported cases.

[old martParticipant @oldmart]

The second part of a Horizon documentary has been aired recently, and is worth watching if you can get it.

[not done it yetParticipant @notdoneityet]

As I see it, it is just the numbers that have decreased and the outcome, if one gets the virus, is likely no different than at the height of the infections – just that the NHS is not going to be drowned in cases.

My wife has no spleen, so if she were to be infected, she could well be added to the statistics. We are still not out of the woods until some better, more effective, forms of treatment or prevention are available.

Edited By not done it yet on 28/05/2020 08:29:09

[Tony Pratt 1Participant @tonypratt1]

NDIY, agreed if you get the infection now the outcome will be 'more or less' the same for each person as it would have been but I don't think the NHS will be overwhelmed & the doctors are learning every day so treatment will get better, they are now talking about the collateral damage for all the patients who the NHS haven't treated in the past couple of months

Tony

[Mick B1Participant @mickb1]

Posted by not done it yet on 28/05/2020 08:28:19:

As I see it, it is just the numbers that have decreased and the outcome, if one gets the virus, is likely no different than at the height of the infections

…

Edited By not done it yet on 28/05/2020 08:29:09

Some news reports are disputing that – although there're still no proven effective treatments, staff have learned to manage the progress of the disease better. I read that at the start of the pandemic, over half of patients who went onto ventilators would go under, and now it's less than a third. It's not the answer to a maiden's prayer, but it is a significant improvement.

[Kiwi BlokeParticipant @kiwibloke62605]

Three things to consider (out of many more, of course)…

1. Until the number of infected people is known as accurately as the number of deaths from the disease, the true population death rate from the disease can't be calculated. Because there seems to be a large proportion of infected people who never get diagnosed, partly because disease screening isn't being done and because not all infected people develop significant symptoms, the prevalence of the disease remains unknown.

2. An individual's risk of death depends greatly on the individual's circumstances, and isn't simply related to the population's death rate.

3. The old and infirm seem to be at greatest risk of death. Countries in which people tend to die before they get old, or have a 'young' population for whatever reason, or who don't survive infirmity, can be expected to show a lower death rate than, say, UK, where the wonderful NHS keeps old wrecks going far longer than they might in countries without universal high-quality health care. So, a country's death rate (from coronavirus) may tell you more about the population's characteristics, or the way data is collected, than it does about the intrinsic lethality of the disease, or the adequacy of available healthcare. Or not – you just can't tell, because the data isn't there yet.

Apologies to any old wrecks reading this – no offence meant.

[Tim HammondParticipant @timhammond72264]

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 28/05/2020 13:29:18:

Apologies to any old wrecks reading this – no offence meant.

None taken! From an Old Wreck in Hampshire.

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

The science museum just did a piece on our Labs efforts at imaging the virus for those who are interested.

**LINK**

regards Martin

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Posted by Martin Kyte on 28/05/2020 16:32:29:

The science museum just did a piece on our Labs efforts at imaging the virus for those who are interested.

**LINK**

regards Martin

Fascinating … you are essentially using the same methods of stacking and drizzling to reduce noise and improve resolution as we use on astronomical images.

I wonder if the program WinJuPos which derotates and stacks images, then can produce images at different rotations and maps in different projections might be useful?

Neil

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Posted by Kiwi Bloke on 28/05/2020 13:29:18:

3. The old and infirm seem to be at greatest risk of death. Countries in which people tend to die before they get old, or have a 'young' population for whatever reason, or who don't survive infirmity, can be expected to show a lower death rate than, say, UK, where the wonderful NHS keeps old wrecks going far longer than they might in countries without universal high-quality health care. So, a country's death rate (from coronavirus) may tell you more about the population's characteristics, or the way data is collected, than it does about the intrinsic lethality of the disease, or the adequacy of available healthcare. Or not – you just can't tell, because the data isn't there yet.

Interesting, but not the whole story.

Japan which has a population of average age about 8 years older than the UK has had 17,000 cases and less than 1,000 deaths, and just 28 new cases yesterday.

The average age in Brazil is over 8 years less than the UK and things are going badly.

I think the ways different societies have implemented lockdowns and tracing are the main variables.

Neil

[Martin KyteParticipant @martinkyte99762]

Hi Neil

Sjors has developed some very sophisticated software to do the analysis to get to atomic resolution. The data is collected by direct electron detectors and is essentially at video rates. Terabytes of the stuff. The computational cluster has 4000 cores.

regards Martin

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember32069]

[This posting has been removed]

[mark smith 20Participant @marksmith20]

Does anyone else think this lockdown relaxation is too early? I mean estimated new infections in the overall comunity (by office national statistics) of 8 – 9000 a day is not a small amount of people to me.

Edited By mark smith 20 on 28/05/2020 19:50:25

[mark smith 20Participant @marksmith20]

**LINK**

[Harry WilkesParticipant @harrywilkes58467]

Posted by mark smith 20 on 29/05/2020 15:07:43:

**LINK**

And your point is ?

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Let's not forget that the original idea behind lockdown was to 'flatten the curve' and avoid overwhelming the NHS. Gov admitted early on that they were suprised by public compliance. Fear worked, probably helped by the appalling figures for mortality amongst those admitted to hospital; figures which suggest either that the UK strain was somehow worse than some other countries or by some poorer approach to treatment here. It will be some time in the future (or hidden from public) as to how our therapy performance compared to elsewhere.

From the viewpoint of Gov there are all the other consideration – economic woes, loss of access to other medical needs – delayed surgeries, dentistry, mental health, home abuse and lockdown mental stress and as always the inevitable shuffling or blame and criticisms associated with political capital and political point scoring.

Lets also not forget that clearing out the old and infirm and weak is to Gov's advantage financially so long as they can keep the public believing it's not their fault.

With no effective therapy or vaccine on an immediate horizon then the only solution is to slowly let the virus work it's way through the population and sort itelf out because we don't have the ability or resources to quarantine the whole country due to our dependance on imports and a Gov that wants to be on a world stage. Without so doing any reduction in cases will just end with subsequent flare-ups – this whole thing started UK with only a few cases and they are going to keep coming in.

It really comes down to each individual looking out for themselves and sad realty is that some folk are more capable or financially able to do that than others. I can just imagine the mental and physical health tolls on single parents in tower blocks with strings of difficult kids and low education standards. For them the overall whole life risk is probably less out and about and at school and getting fed than being cooped up.

You'll start to see the pattern where areas of the country that shut visitors out early on and stayed with low numbers of sick will be the areas with the highest case load next..just because they have the fewest numbers that caught it and became immune and complacency has occurred.

we've finally had two cases outlying my area but you donlt see even 1% wearing a mask or keeping a real distance when out and about unless controlled by shop staff. At least folk have stopped looking at me oddly when i rock up with my industrial P3 mask on and disposable gloves.

pgk

[J HancockParticipant @jhancock95746]

We are all, two or three generations on, survivors of the ' Spanish Flu'.

No lockdowns then, so what happened ?

Did all our 'parents' get it and survive ?

Are the survivors today the ones who inherited some immunity from that earlier time ?

For sure, the next few weeks will show whether all this 'sacrifice' has been worthwhile, or a complete

waste.

[Author]

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