Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 23/02/2020 19:23:09:
To me the clincher is that theory as expressed 10 years ago predicted what we are experiencing today. A general warming of the whole planet, increased frequency of unusual weather effects, loss of glaciers and a reducing ice-cap, and environmental conditions sufficient to shift lifeforms on a large scale. Depletion of temperature sensitive fish stocks in the North Atlantic is one example, desertification is another, and something bad is happening to plankton.
Thought the effects are complex the root cause is simple – man-made greenhouse gases cause the atmosphere to trap heat at the surface, especially in the sea. The extra energy is unwelcome because it fuels the weather – all of of it. Carbon Dioxide is the main problem gas because 250 years of industrial activity has put so much into the air, where it stays longer than previously believed possible. Methane is also a serious problem.
Personally I believe it is already too late; people are in for an increasingly rough ride. I believe it's possible to reduce the impact, but it's going to be tough. It's not just Academia who understand there's a problem, governments and big business are also reacting. The investment report this month from JP Morgan (hardly radical environmentalists!) is blunt. Forum members who manage to survive the next 3 decades will know the answer for sure: I shall probably miss out due to advancing old age, another unavoidable hazard!
Dave
Sorry had to edit as too long to post!
Dave,
I have long held your logic and evidenced based responses in high regard but on this subject I think you are a little wide of the mark.
I like your analogy with smoking as like climate change the initial suppositions were based on suppositions, personal experiences and opinion, later supported by definitive research and evidence. My feeling is with climate change we are still well in the supposition stage. During that stage with smoking there was no real government intervention into the activity until much later when research supported, even then there was no appetite to ban the activity altogether just tax it to the hilt (maybe justifiably on the basis of covering the cost to the NHS while still allowing a degree of choice) but that is an argument for another day!
The question I pose is beyond the suggestion and supposition that CO2 is definitively the culprit in this is there any actual verifiable evidence to back that up that definitively justifies taxing carbon to the hilt? Looking at your link it is to BBC news who have seen the JP Morgan report, quoting sound bites that support the story, I didn't see the whole report reproduced in full to allow the reader to form an opinion either way? Unfortunately I don't think even BBC news is free from bias. Also it needs to be considered that JP Morgan is a business and likely to bend to public opinion to protect its interests.
I am afraid I am not so adept at links as yourself but see if you can get this to work;
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/why-did-earth’s-surface-temperature-stop-rising-past-decade
This is a supposedly (we have to trust it is anyway) independent source of information. It concentrates on explaining the 'recent' often quoted by sceptics, slow down in temperature rise. This was an anomaly from the IPCC model and I am particularly interested in the line the model was re-calibrated. I have seen the temperature graph in other papers over a longer time span with CO2 overlaid and shows CO2 levels lagging temperature. Has this been falsified by the researchers presenting or is it true? I don't know! However if it is true and valid information if CO2 is the cause how can temperature be affected by a CO2 level not yet achieved? Are these versions of CO2 versus temperature also 'recalibrated'?
As I stated before I don't deny climate is changing but do we really know the reason? What has caused it to change before when CO2 levels were relatively stable? The above example of a pause over a decade or a slowing of the rate of rise is but a nano second when examining the history of the earth so hardly representative overall of a trend. When Greenland was green CO2 was lower, so why was it green?
The use of renewable energy is also to be encouraged, sustainability is of course essential but the pace at which change is being driven may still be felt by you in your lifetime. From November 2019 to date there has been a significant target suggested in my industry that cannot be met currently in the 10 years allowed by existing proven technology without adopting bio fuel (already noted as being land wasteful) and as demand increases that will get more expensive. The costs will inevitably be passed down the line. I am just looking for reassurance the world is still flat and it's not going to turn out its round! Whether people like it or not the notion of cheap renewable energy is a myth. Recouping the capital invested in a wind farm for example is a long term return and maintaining / overhauling the equipment to keep it going is still not cheap! Those putting their money in to any energy project, sustainable or not will want their returns in spades! I suspect JPM will be keeping a foot in all camps although not so prepared to advertise some of them!
Paul.