2040 deadline for Diesel and Petrol cars.

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2040 deadline for Diesel and Petrol cars.

Home Forums General Questions 2040 deadline for Diesel and Petrol cars.

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  • #308900
    Barnaby Wilde
    Participant
      @barnabywilde70941
      Posted by Neil Wyatt on 26/07/2017 20:11:44:

      Posted by Mick Charity on 26/07/2017 19:53:58:

      Posted by Neil Wyatt on 26/07/2017 19:28:54:

      Be worried, be VERY worried about how your guvm'nt is going to replace the oil tax revenue it so enjoys collecting, this is not a small amount . . . this is £billions !

      The amount they spend always stays about the same, so tax is a zero sum game. If it comes off transport costs it will go on something else. We won't be better off or worse off.

      Not sure what you mean?

      Do you mean . . . The tax collected from transport is spent on transport? They will find something new to tax? Or do you mean they'll just spend less when they collect less?

      When the MAHOOSIVE flow of tax revenue from fossil fuels is cut off . . . And we are talking £billions . . . How will they replace it?

      Your second option, they just find something else to tax – they will simply tax something else to get it.

      Governments only tax as much as they need (within the limits of their different ideas of how much they need, which aren't really that different) because if they take too much it's political suicide or too little (because services go down the plug, again political suicide).

      So if they lose 50 billion a year on fuel tax, they put 50 billion a year onto other taxes.

      Driving becomes cheaper, lots of other things become more expensive. We all keep more or less the same amount of cash in our pockets, on average. That's what I mean by zero sum, the total change adds up to nothing even though the impact on certain products and services or individuals might vary a lot.

      Neil

      Edited By Neil Wyatt on 26/07/2017 20:12:28

      I don't think we'll all keep more or less the same amount of cash in our pockets.

      I'm trying very hard to work out how they'll replace it. My best guess so far involves the roll out of the so called 'smart meters' . . . Electricity, especially for certain uses, is going to become VERY expensive in the near future.

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      #308901
      SillyOldDuffer
      Moderator
        @sillyoldduffer
        Posted by Antony Powell on 26/07/2017 18:04:52:

        Thought out – I think not….

        Job losses

        petrol station staff + maintenance staff for pumps etc

        petrol tanker drivers + those who fill the tankers + those who maintain both vehicles and plants

        "oil rig" workers

        Garage staff (lower maintenance required)

        etc

        In 1920, 1.2 million men worked in the UK coal industry. By 2020, it could be down to zero. Similar massive job losses in Textiles, Shipbuilding, Heavy Engineering, Heavy Chemicals, the GPO, and the Railways.

        There are no sacred cows. Nothing is future proof apart from death and taxes!

        Don't panic though, given time people are very good at adapting to change. Some of the future will be worse, some of it better. All we can be really sure of is that it will be different. Many jobs we think of as rock solid will go the way of COBOL Programming, Bear-leaders and Scriveners.

        Dave

        #308903
        duncan webster 1
        Participant
          @duncanwebster1

          Governments only tax as much as they need (within the limits of their different ideas of how much they need, which aren't really that different) because if they take too much it's political suicide or too little (because services go down the plug, again political suicide).

          So if they lose 50 billion a year on fuel tax, they put 50 billion a year onto other taxes.

          Neil

          Edited By Neil Wyatt on 26/07/2017 20:12:28

          We're getting a bit near the forbidden ploitics here, but if governments did actually tax us as much as they needed we wouldn't have the mountain of national debt!

          Go back 110 years, hay and oats were widely available, people with petrol driven cars were considered dangerous lunatics, and petrol was only available at the chemist's. I wonder if the grey beards back then were saying 'these new fangles cars will never catch on, I'm sticking with my horse and cart'.

          #308904
          larry Phelan
          Participant
            @larryphelan54019

            What about the simple horse and cart? Worked for years Just an idea,is it any more stupid than the others?

            ,

            #308915
            Max Tolerance
            Participant
              @maxtolerance69251

              Just for interest. Electric cars outnumbered I.C. cars at the end of the 19th century. Dime in the slot charging stations where installed in large American cities. The "experts" of the day laughed at the thought of I.C. engines ever being any good. Come the 1st WW Britain and France built thousands of I.C. engine wagons etc. Aircraft engines I.C again, developed at a tremendous rate, in Britain, France, Germany and Italy. Why?

              In a Model Engineer editorial it was discussed that oil and coal where running out. Everyone would be driving electric cars within a few years. The power would come from small wind mills and a tidal barrier in the Bristol channel. Sound familiar? The date was December 1920.

              The "experts" were wrong. Politicians lie for a living.

              The biggest promoters of the electric car are the ones who will make the biggest profit from the tax payer subsidies.

              Just a few reasons why I am sceptical.

              Edited By Neil Wyatt on 27/07/2017 08:32:53

              #308919
              Fowlers Fury
              Participant
                @fowlersfury

                "What about the simple horse and cart? Worked for years Just an idea,is it any more stupid than the others?"

                Ah but…."exhaust emissions" from horses are a major source of methane and that is around 30x more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. Nice idea but a lot of hot air wink. Maybe though you could have a horse/i.c. engine hybrid, just need a tube from horse's a**e to inlet manifold ?

                By coincidence I was today searching for an article in the M.E. from 1968. An editorial included this:-

                "Steam cars again ?
                According to an article in the American magazine “ Machine Design,” there is still hope that the steam engine will once again be seen on our roads. Some of the big American motor car manufacturers are doing a certain amount of research on steam engines suitable for road use. Ford is awaiting delivery of a reciprocating steam power plant designed specially for use in cars, and General Motors are also doing some research work on steam engines. The view of the manufacturers is that if any new power plant proves more efficient and in particular “ cleaner ” than existing petrol types, it has an excellent chance of being put into production
                "

                50 years later, who knows ?! Since coal fired cars & vans are not included in this ban maybe we should start building replica Stanleys for our kids.

                Edited By Fowlers Fury on 26/07/2017 21:59:55

                #308920
                Dod Mole
                Participant
                  @georgeclarihew
                  Posted by David George 1 on 26/07/2017 13:59:31:

                  Just down the road from where I live a mini gas powered powerstation is being installed and as I went to collect a new gear for my M Type lathe from an industrial estate just north of Chesterfield the are installing another. What pollution do these give out and perhaps gas powered car's are the way to go.

                  David

                  Just up the road from me a mini gas powered powerstation was built and fuelled with ryegrass.

                  Subsisised construction cos its green.

                  Now the farming company planted 2500 acres of the ryegrass, cost unknown.

                  Then when it was ready the mower started using about 100 litres of diesel to cut the stuff.

                  The chopper followed to blow it into the fleet of tractors and trailers, chopper using 800 litres per day.

                  And carted off to silage type pit for storage.

                  Matured grass is fed into plant one loader bucketful at a time to fill aforementioned gas producing plant.

                  9 large electric motors keep brew agitated 24/7 as gas is produced.

                  Aforementioned gas is fed into a gas powered internal combustion engine driving a generator.

                  Electricity is finally being fed into grid at a feed in price above selling price to users.

                  Methinks all them with companies with money makes money from subsidies all in the name of green renewable energy.

                  But with all these processes and energy conversions, losing unknown percentage of the inputs can anyone really know the cost to the environment and the taxpayer.

                  Think I will nip out and buy a couple of small diesel cars, stick them in storage and hollow out the garden to about 1000 feet down, line with tank and slowly buy diesel to stockpile enough fuel to see me out.

                  #308921
                  roy entwistle
                  Participant
                    @royentwistle24699

                    Whats going to happen to the motor bikes, lawn mowers, chain saws, canal boats, etc. As regards the railways the government has just cancelled the electrification through the lake district saying that diesels will take over

                    Roy devil

                    #308924
                    Dod Mole
                    Participant
                      @georgeclarihew
                      Posted by roy entwistle on 26/07/2017 22:04:56:

                      Whats going to happen to the motor bikes, lawn mowers, chain saws, canal boats, etc. As regards the railways the government has just cancelled the electrification through the lake district saying that diesels will take over

                      Roy devil

                       

                      Motorbikes converted to pedals

                      Lawn mowers, old fashioned push or get a goat or concrete the grassed area.

                      Chain saws, who needs one

                      Canal boats, back to horse drawn

                      Maybe they cancelled lectifying the Lake district cos they realised there would not be enough lectrickery to go around, what with all them new fangled cars using it all.

                      Edited By George Clarihew on 26/07/2017 22:14:47

                      #308952
                      russell
                      Participant
                        @russell

                        check http://www.lockheedmartin.com.au/us/products/compact-fusion.html for an alternative view of the future.

                        the good thing about announcing something will change in 20 years time is there is plenty of time to change your mind…

                        -russ

                        #308955
                        Eric Arthrell
                        Participant
                          @ericarthrell78468

                          If they are that worried about pollution as they should be ,they should make public transport free to reduce car use .

                          #308957
                          Alan Gordon 4
                          Participant
                            @alangordon4
                            Posted by Clive Hartland on 26/07/2017 09:40:11:

                            The Government has announced a ban on Diesel and Petrol car sales from 2040! No scrappage scheme announced!

                            So we will be all electric or Bikes by then?

                            Then to re-charge all these wonderful electric beasts we will also need 5 new Hinkley style power stations.

                            France also recently announced a similar ruling. I bet the USA does not?

                            What will they do with all the scrap cars, send them to Africa.?

                            What will happen about HGV's with a smaller operating radius?

                            Clive, All in the name of clean air.

                            #308958
                            Alan Gordon 4
                            Participant
                              @alangordon4

                              Of course what they dont tell you is the enviromental damage caused by mining the materials needed to make batteries and then dispose of them when they are knackered. Why no one has gone for Hydrogen ?

                              #308959
                              not done it yet
                              Participant
                                @notdoneityet

                                An awful lot of negativity in this thread. And exaggeration, too.

                                1 billion miles per day would only require a further 8 Gigawatts of electricity generation. 2 GW could easily be saved by proper insulation of housing stock. We currently import/export as much as 3GW via international connectors. That will increase considerably in the interim period.

                                T

                                hat 8GW assumes 200Wh/mile, the typical current usage for smallish EVs. (Tesla S uses a little over 300). That efficiency will doubtless increase as regenerative technologies are improved or introduced, battery energy density is enhanced, etc. There was one example of a discharged EV battery being almost fully charged at the bottom of a long hill (talking here of an alpine crossing, I believe!).

                                Fuel cells are readily available in ~1kW modules. Think here, that is 5 times the average power required by a typical EV. It may not meet peak power requirements but in twenty year's time the heavy right-footed drivers may be in the minority. Hydrogen will be generated more cheaply (better catalysts per eg).

                                There is currently about 50GW electricity generation capacity. That is only just sufficient for current peak usage (with power curtailment by some heavy power consumers). Night rates (economy 7) are ideal for EV owners, reducing the cost of recharging by near to 50% Think here – that is more than adequate for the 50% of drivers doing less than the average of 20 miles each day. But, agreed, it does not take into account of those that do no miles for six days and 150 miles on the other day of the week – but they are not the average, and there are better alternatives for this type of motorist! (rent a vehicle when required, rather than ownership, per eg)

                                Electric motor cycles are already available as options. 100 miles range and quicker than many current commuter motorcycles.

                                The 8GW assumes no home generation. Home PV systems are currently limited to 4kW peak per phase if connected to the grid. With battery storage opportunities improving, most EVs could be charged from home systems for at least part of the year at zero grid usage. Especially if home systems were extended to cover the roof (10kW or more?)

                                No, look ahead with some modicum of positivity. It can be done with the will to do it. And stop being so negative!

                                #308960
                                Sam Longley 1
                                Participant
                                  @samlongley1

                                  In built up areas many people have to park in the street & that may not always be outside their house. So if they want to charge their vehicle at home at night do they have a long lead up the street to the car ?

                                  The … will have a field day nicking cable

                                  Edited By Neil Wyatt on 27/07/2017 08:29:19

                                  #308961
                                  Geoff Theasby
                                  Participant
                                    @geofftheasby

                                    Here here, NDIY! The world is full of people who can only see disadvantages, in mobile phones, 'visual disturbance' like cellphone masts, solar panels, battery technology, pollution, etc. Yesterday I heard a sensible idea for people who have to park on the street. Plug your EV into a street light! Wonderful lateral thinking! Also, charge it up whilst at work. 8 hours spent unused in the office car park, yeah? The hydrogen economy is a dead end because the i/c engine has hundreds of moving parts, an electric motor has one! Fuel cells are much more likely.

                                    Geoff

                                    #308962
                                    Neil Wyatt
                                    Moderator
                                      @neilwyatt
                                      Posted by roy entwistle on 26/07/2017 22:04:56:

                                      Whats going to happen to the motor bikes, lawn mowers, chain saws, canal boats, etc. As regards the railways the government has just cancelled the electrification through the lake district saying that diesels will take over

                                      Roy devil

                                      You can buy electric chainsaws and mowers for decades, with or without a cable!

                                      Canal boats are the ideal subject for electrification, they need ballast so big batteries don't affect them at all and there are some very successful ones out there.

                                      #308963
                                      Neil Wyatt
                                      Moderator
                                        @neilwyatt

                                        I am interested in the split of opinions here.

                                        As someone who is convinced climate change is having a real impact already, I don't think it is environmentalists like me who can 'save the world'* it's engineers.

                                        While engineers do tend towards optimism and hubris, I don't see any impossible challenges here, just challenges.

                                        When I was a lad, the idea of cheap, affordable, portable battery powered drills was ridiculous, and electric model aircraft were a bit of a joke that plodded round the sky…

                                        Neil

                                        *for 'save the world' read 'save humnan civilisation in more or less its current form'.

                                        #308966
                                        Antony Powell
                                        Participant
                                          @antonypowell28169

                                          I'm not against Electric vehicles and am fully trained to the highest level available to repair these vehicles .

                                          I even run a Prius myself.

                                          My comments were aimed solely at the governments lack of thinking about a subject before jumping on a band wagon.

                                          They should be announcing new battery manufacturing and disposal plants, and the ensuing new jobs, keeping us at the forefront of the new technology.

                                          Instead of frightening anybody who is currently in a trade that will be severely effected by announcing cut off dates for their jobs.

                                          on one hand making themselves look good by improving the environment whilst abolishing incentives and increasing the taxes on EV's in the background with the other

                                          Edited By Antony Powell on 27/07/2017 09:08:33

                                          #308970
                                          Antony Powell
                                          Participant
                                            @antonypowell28169

                                            Street light power circuits arn't good enough for charging EV's you'd have to rewire them all at great cost and disruption, plus they are still spaced out too far to safely run a charging cable to a vehicle.

                                            you'd get the no win no fee scum doing "did you trip over a power cable in the street claims"

                                            #308972
                                            Mike
                                            Participant
                                              @mike89748

                                              I am sure Neil is right about climate change having a real impact already. But when we start looking for what's to blame, everyone seems to turn to the noxious gases we pump into the atmosphere, and the energy we waste, but nobody seems to look at the amount of pure heat we waste. Just a few "for instances." Every morning wasted hot water from my shower and shave is thrown away down the drain. If it is cold and I switch the heating on, my house, like most, leaks heat into the atmosphere. My car is probably the worst offender – it needs a radiator to get rid of a huge amount of heat into the atmosphere, and every time I brake four discs shed more heat into the air. Waste heat from my kitchen goes into the outside air through the cooker hood, and almost everywhere we look, even in my countryside location, there's something pouring out pure heat as well as polluting gases. Even electric motors waste heat, and so do power stations.

                                              All of this heat must go somewhere, and it is quite noticeable that the temperature in cities is slightly higher than in the surrounding countryside. Perhaps I'm not making this case very clearly, and maybe I am naïve as well, but I know damned well that the weather is warmer than it was when I was a child 60 years ago and the world's population was smaller and we had the sense of wrap up warmly on cold days.

                                              Edited By Mike on 27/07/2017 09:57:32

                                              #308980
                                              Andy Carruthers
                                              Participant
                                                @andycarruthers33275

                                                It is also true that wine was made on Lindisfarne in the middle ages implying a warmer climate than we have now – well before the Industrial Age began

                                                Hydrogen based automotive has not taken off (yet, if ever) due to storage challenges, though there are a few outlets in California. The biggest issue is range for electric cars, hence hybrids – but it's the oil giants who want to preserve their monopoly for as long as possible. Hydrogen just doesn't figure in their plans whereas selling oil and gas to generate electricity clearly supports battery driven cars with continuation of supply of fuel for generators in hybrid cars

                                                #308986
                                                Gordon W
                                                Participant
                                                  @gordonw

                                                  Who remembers when atomic power stations were first built ? Headlines – power will be so cheap it won't be worth sending out bills. A government enquiry into the future of computers ? They thought a market of 3 or 4 a year might be feasible.

                                                  #308989
                                                  Mike
                                                  Participant
                                                    @mike89748

                                                    It was the same up here in Scotland when the first hydro-electric schemes came on line – so cheap, the only cost would be to pay for installation in your home…………..

                                                    #308992
                                                    Russell Eberhardt
                                                    Participant
                                                      @russelleberhardt48058

                                                      Posted by Neil Wyatt on 27/07/2017 08:55:42:

                                                      As someone who is convinced climate change is having a real impact already, I don't think it is environmentalists like me who can 'save the world'* it's engineers.

                                                      As an engineer (retired) I agree with you.

                                                      The question people should be asking is not "Does man made CO2 result in global warming?" bit "How much is it responsible?". The first has been proven beyond doubt and the second the second is very strongly suggested by the correlation between CO2 and global warming in many years of records. Anyone who doubts that needs to read and understand the scientific papers. A very good, if somewhat out of date, explanation in layman's terms is given in Bjorn Lomborg's book, "The Sceptical Environmentalist".

                                                      If petrol and diesel cars are banned from 2040 it is unlikely to affect me as I'm not likely to still be driving at 94 years of age. Also, the governments making such statements are equally unlikely to still be in power. Who knows what future governments will do?

                                                      Looking at the problem as an engineer I can see a major problems with electric cars. While particulate and NOx pollutants might be reduced, CO2 production is just moved from one place to another in countries that rely on fossil fuel power for electricity generation. When you look at the efficiency of oil fired power stations compared with cars, taking into account all the losses in distribution, battery charge/discharge, etc., there is very little to choose between them. Electric is a bit better than petrol cars but a bit worse than diesel. There is only a big decrease in CO2 emissions in countries that rely heavily on nuclear power. So we should be investing in nuclear power stations or developing "renewable" energy sources that do not rely on the unpredictable weather such as geothermal.

                                                      Russell

                                                      Edited to remove stutter!

                                                      Edited By Russell Eberhardt on 27/07/2017 11:22:38

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