Coronavirus

[Mike PooleParticipant @mikepoole82104]

I gave my internals an alcohol flush last night, I understand beer is not strong enough to be of benefit, Absinthe is a bit hardcore for me, if it doesn’t come out of a hand pump then it stays in the pub. Beer does make you less concerned though if you have enough of it and the more you have the less concerned you become.

Mike

[duncan webster 1Participant @duncanwebster1]

Po

That's why I spent most of my money on beer, fast women and loose motorcycles. The rest, I wasted.

Over here it is beer, loose women and FAST motorcycles,

Bill

I believe that the beer should deserve an adjective too, strong, tasty etc.

How about 'copious beer….' wouldn't apply to me now, as I've got older the capacity for abusing beer has diminished, quite a lightweight now

[SteviegtrParticipant @steviegtr]

I won't get any beer now. Jet2 just cancelled all flights to Spain inc Tenerife, doh. Was going in 2 weeks.

Steve.

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[Enough!Participant @enough]

Posted by Bill Chugg on 14/03/2020 14:06:26:

Posted by Steviegtr on 14/03/2020 13:30:05:

I won't get any beer now. Jet2 just cancelled all flights to Spain inc Tenerife, doh. Was going in 2 weeks.

Steve.

Disappointing for you agreed, but possibly a blessing in disguise as they say ?

Bill

May I, respectfully, make a suggestion, Bill? When you reply using a quote from a previous message, put the cursor below all the quote markers, click, then carry on typing your response.

This way you reply doesn't get mixed in with what you are quoting which is sometimes hard for the reader to follow. (Not really a problem with the above message but it has been difficult sometimes).

[Mike PooleParticipant @mikepoole82104]

Posted by duncan webster on 14/03/2020 12:22:07:

Po

That's why I spent most of my money on beer, fast women and loose motorcycles. The rest, I wasted.

Over here it is beer, loose women and FAST motorcycles,

Bill

I believe that the beer should deserve an adjective too, strong, tasty etc.

How about 'copious beer….' wouldn't apply to me now, as I've got older the capacity for abusing beer has diminished, quite a lightweight now

It’s quite a happy position to be in now that good beer can be found and enjoyed without drinking large quantities, much more wallet friendly too. I was rather surprised on a tour round Hook Norton brewery to find that a modern version of keg ales are now available and they are far more acceptable than the awful 60’s 70’s version. The manager of my local pub was rather wary of putting ales back on after the pub had been run in to the ground, we persuaded him to test some and it’s not working out to bad.

Mike

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[Jeff DaymanParticipant @jeffdayman43397]

Err, you just did it again.

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

No one in my Tesco's was panic buying this afternoon because the shelves are already empty! Pitta & other breads, Bog Roll, Paracetamol, Aspirin, Cold-cures, Pasta, Baked Beans, Tinned Soup, Blackcurrant Juice & similar, all gone. Made me proud to be British, NOT!

Selfish hoarding causes entirely unnecessary shortages and inconvenience.

Whatever happened to the spirit behind Agincourt, Trafalgar, the Charge of the Light Brigade, Victory in WW1, and our Finest Hour? Hope no-one on this forum has let the side down by panic buying.

Dave

[SillyOldDufferModerator @sillyoldduffer]

Posted by Bill Chugg on 14/03/2020 18:49:01:

Well, as I seem to be making a right mess of it, I shall stop using the quotes thing and just post a seperate reply.

That way I will not cause problems.

Bill

Not really a problem Bill, worse things happen at sea! Typing below the end of the vertical line in a quoted post just makes contributions easier to read.

But I read stuff however it's typed. Don't mind spelling, grammar or other mistakes either – it's having people on board that matters. Keep up the good work.

Dave

[Old SchoolParticipant @oldschool]

Does two end mills and a reamer count as panic buying, might have hole up in the workshop.

[Former MemberParticipant @formermember19781]

[This posting has been removed]

[PlasmaParticipant @plasma]

Am I missing something?

If normal seasonal flu kills 8000 people in the uk and this covid is not much worse why are we taking such huge measures to control it?

I cant get my head round why the world needs to shut down to such an extent.

I know that percentages are being bandied round along with many more statistics. But it still seems that this thing is no worse than SARS etc. Which did not have anything like the impact.

And I know a flu killed more than the first world war but that was in an age with no real health care.

Is there something we are not being told? Or are we being over cautious for no good reason.

Makes the conspiracy theorists look right for a change.

Mick

[Frances IoMParticipant @francesiom58905]

Mick
Thought this had been well explained – it is the loading on Intensive care beds that is the worry as the NHS does not have enough for the worse case peak – seasonal flu seems to kill not so much by the virus but the various bacteria that come along for the ride in a weakened immune system.

The Spanish flu was another ‘novel’ variant + particularly nasty to the young + healthy who died by their immune system going into hyperdrive but don’t forget in 1919 there was famine in Germany + Austria – the UK was pretty close to this as well from 1917 onwards – the U-boats sank much shipping + the Royal Navy blockaded food reaching Germany + Austria – modern siege warfare

Edited By Frances IoM on 14/03/2020 19:45:05

[Neil WyattModerator @neilwyatt]

Posted by Bill Chugg on 14/03/2020 18:49:01:

Well, as I seem to be making a right mess of it, I shall stop using the quotes thing and just post a seperate reply.

That way I will not cause problems.

Bill

Bill! Just press the 'down arrow' to make sure you are right at the bottom before your start typing!

[Martin of WickParticipant @martinofwick]

Posted by Plasma on 14/03/2020 19:09:45:

Am I missing something?

If normal seasonal flu kills 8000 people in the uk and this covid is not much worse why are we taking such huge measures to control it?

because it is 10 times more potent than the average flu and very serious for 15% of cases

because it is 3 to 5 times more infectious than ordinary flu

because it has a long incubation period during which the host organism is infectious while active in the population

because there is no effective treatment, cure or vaccine to slow transmission

because it now epidemic the general population and without mitigation cases are doubling every 4 days.

without some attempt at mitigation from a current case count of 1000 within two months the numbers infected could be of the order of 16 Million, if 15% needed enhanced or advanced medical care that is 2.4 million hospital beds over the period. Say each stay was approx. two weeks, that would still be in excess of 500,000 beds minimum to cover admissions for Covid-19 alone.

There are about 175000 UK hospital beds and maybe 5000 ICU beds (running at about 90% occupancy pre epidemic) so it is more than likely that an uncontrolled outbreak would completely overwhelm the medical facilities, that is why the Govt is concerned and will probably try any effective measure possible to slow the rate of infection.

 

 

 

Edited By Martin of Wick on 14/03/2020 20:44:04

Edited By Martin of Wick on 14/03/2020 20:44:35

[peak4Participant @peak4]

Posted by Martin of Wick on 14/03/2020 20:43:26:

Posted by Plasma on 14/03/2020 19:09:45:

Am I missing something?

If normal seasonal flu kills 8000 people in the uk and this covid is not much worse why are we taking such huge measures to control it?

because it is 10 times more potent than the average flu and very serious for 15% of cases

………………

Edited By Martin of Wick on 14/03/2020 20:44:35

Do a few quick back of the envelope calculations;

Currently UK gov are suggesting "Herd Immunity" if 60% of the population get infected, though that's a figure widely disputed by a number of other experts, who suggest a minimum of 70-80% and some say even higher.

Obviously there's no way of knowing currently if that percentage of the population are likely to get infected, so I'm not trying to be over-dramatic here, and just providing a possible illustration, which I seriously hope is wrong, but why even publicise this number as part of the strategy unless it has relavence?

Taking best case scenario on the 60% estimate/requirement with a UK population of 66 million approx.
60% of 66 million comes out at 39,600,000 infections.
Death rate is estimated at 1-2%, so again, taking best case, that leaves 396,000 predicted deaths, in order to achieve "Herd Immunity".
It sounds like a potentially dangerous strategy if it all goes per shaped.

From Italy, it seems that, of the small percentage who do require Critical Care & ICU intervention, of those who are on ventilators and receiving full support, there is about a 40% death rate for over 60s ( I assume that is all over 60s, so includes 70s, 80s etc)
Italy has about twice as many high dependency/ICU beds as us, and I think ours are already 80% occupied.
I'll stand to be corrected, but I think we have a little over 4 high dependency beds + 2 ICU beds per capita.
Italy has sent some military personnel into medical ventilator factories, to assist boosting production, and China has sent a large aircraft full of medics an 1000 extra ventilators to Italy, along with other medical supplies.

Some estimates suggest we are a couple of weeks behind Italy, as regards infection rates, though clearly I don't know the accuracy of that.

Here even hand sanitiser is virtually unavailable, Gov is woeful, and folks are stockpiling toilet rolls.

Without straying into politics on an engineering forum, we have no idea how many of the population are currently infected, as the advice at the moment is;

"You do not need to contact 111 to tell them you're staying at home.
Testing for coronavirus is not needed if you're staying at home"

So essentially, no-one knows who's staying at home, and of those who are, no-one knows how many are infected.

I'd best leave it there before I get grumpy and stray into politics

Bill

Edited By peak4 on 14/03/2020 21:30:45

[Raphael GolezParticipant @raphaelgolez]

I have been following through the thread and read all the posting here. Everyone has a point and a valid opinion. As it stands we have statistical estimates and maybe a prediction model based on data that we have gathered and observed in the last few months this started. However in my opinion it is difficult to be accurate. This is because this virus is new with no previous exact past experience. It is very complex, especially the interconnections it plays with the whole society. We all react differently including the psychological response, survival instinct, rational or irrational thinking/reasoning etc. This may be one of the driving factor why we are in this situation. The rapid spread of this virus is embedded in our modern society. I myself have already accepted that it is a matter of time that I get expose looking after my patients and I do worry a lot (I have a family and a 8 years old daughter). If and when I do get it I already planned to self isolate and "sit the storm out". Hope my immune system is good enough to take it. I worry for my elderly patient who have so many co-morbidities and thinking how are they going to fight back. I'm worried how I'm going to help them. Reality is we need to be ready as this is a serious situation. I see patient come and go in the hospital however I could not imagine the impact of this virus. I am hoping that all this estimates are wrong and we will be all ok. We have to take this in a serious and sensitive way. Hope I didn't offend people here in the forum. We could all give our opinions and what we personally think about this situation and work together for solutions to address this issue.

Raphael

[Michael GilliganParticipant @michaelgilligan61133]

Thanks for the ‘reality check’ Raphael

… I admire your attitude and dedication, and am truly grateful for your informed opinion.

MichaelG.

[peak4Participant @peak4]

I also thank Raphael for an informed and non sensationalist opinion.

It's something of a shame that it has to come via a minority forum, rather than the mainstream media.
Keep up the good work, both on here and in your professional life.

Bill

(p.s. my previous post should of course have read as "I'll stand to be corrected, but I think we have a little over 4 high dependency beds + 2 ICU beds per 1000 capita.)

[pgk pgkParticipant @pgkpgk17461]

Panic buying..

I was getting low on my stock of Jamaican beef patties so I trundled off to the Iceland Store making sure I got there by 9 o'clock. The whole place was completely deserted with not a soul in sight…

It turns out they usually close at eight pm….

pgk

[jimmy bParticipant @jimmyb]

Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 14/03/2020 18:49:44:

No one in my Tesco's was panic buying this afternoon because the shelves are already empty! Pitta & other breads, Bog Roll, Paracetamol, Aspirin, Cold-cures, Pasta, Baked Beans, Tinned Soup, Blackcurrant Juice & similar, all gone. Made me proud to be British, NOT!

Selfish hoarding causes entirely unnecessary shortages and inconvenience.

Whatever happened to the spirit behind Agincourt, Trafalgar, the Charge of the Light Brigade, Victory in WW1, and our Finest Hour? Hope no-one on this forum has let the side down by panic buying.

Dave

I totally agree Dave.

It has disgusted me to watch the family across the road bring in car full of stuff this afternoon, 3 times the amount they normally have. I hope they enjoy it.

I'll be checking on our elderly neighbours this morning and getting them anything they need.

The British society of the war time is gone forever.

Jim

[John MCParticipant @johnmc39344]

My local radio presenter was, frankly, boasting about his panic buying, 5 of this, 6 of that and so on. Then said most of it will sit in a cupboard, not used or eaten and get thrown away. That had me shouting at the radio!

What was nice though was a young couple who recently moved in to to a nearby house knocking on the door and letting us know if we needed any help in the C-19 crisis, give them a call. I, naturally, offered to reciprocate.

Brought back to earth by Mrs JohnMC, they must think you look old……

John

[jimmy bParticipant @jimmyb]

**LINK**

Quite shocking!

Jim

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