The lifetime of an incandescent bulb is inversely proportional to the fifth power of the temperature (IIRC – it's been a few years now). The wearout mechanism is a bit unusual, since the filament gradually evaporates during operation. Most other components (passives and semiconductors – including LEDs) follow the Arrhenius Equation for both lifetime and reliability (which are quite different effects – see below). Generally, for an incandescent lamp, the temperature is fairly constant and barely affected by the installation. However, the voltage plays a significant role in temperature and hence lifetime, so even a small increase in voltage can result in a marked reduction in lifetime.
There's no reason why you can't achieve a good lifetime with LEDs is designed correctly. Passenger car LED lights are generally designed for 15 year / 300,000 km life and are tested accordingly. Thermal management is one key element to get right and you will see that the LEDs themselves are invariably mounted on IMS substrate, which is basically a PCB made on an aluminium sheet instead of FR4 substrate. Of course, if you don't have adequate cooling of that assembly, the components will run very hot.
I would expect that most of the problems with reliability and lifetime are down to poor circuit and thermal design combined with poor quality control in manufacturing. That's probably a good reason to buy well known brands rather than cheaping out on Pound Shop specials.
The difference between reliability and lifetime isn't hard to comprehend. A surface to air missile may only have a lifetime of several minutes (due to the limited fuel load) but it must have a very high reliability (ie an MTBF measured in the hundreds of thousands of hours), as many lives may depend on it. Conversely, a cheap biro may be very unreliable (air lock, ball falling out, ink leaking away) before the natural lifetime is up (ie ink has been used up). In the latter case, the reliability isn't so critical, as you can just throw it away and grab another one.
Murray