Is it just petrol and diesel that's going to be banned, or all forms of internal combustion engines? What about alcohol, or hydrogen and other gases as fuel? There really will have to be huge progress in battery technology if the proposed ban is going to work. Fortunately, if I live that long I will be 99 in 2040 so presumably not very interested in driving anywhere. And what about the future of road haulage? Has this really been thought through, or is it just politicians' waffle?

Edited By Mike on 26/07/2017 13:24:22

Thought through?

Politicians?!?

Fat chance.

Regards,

Richard

I think they thought something through, introduce a policy that comes into force after we have retired …

Just down the road from where I live a mini gas powered powerstation is being installed and as I went to collect a new gear for my M Type lathe from an industrial estate just north of Chesterfield the are installing another. What pollution do these give out and perhaps gas powered car's are the way to go.

David

Just down the road from where I live there will shortly be a tiny gas-powered power station fuelled by the methane from a closed-down rubbish tip. I don't understand the chemistry of it all, so can someone explain the dangers of burning methane? On the gas-powered car tack, in the 1970s I drove an LPG-powered Ford Cortina from Lincolnshire to Glasgow and back, and recall that it was quite a pleasant experience. Wouldn't mind that as an alternative to electric motors and batteries.

Edited By Mike on 26/07/2017 14:51:14

Methane is a far worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, so burning it in controlled conditions to generate electricity is a big bonus. Nearly every small town in Germany seems to have a domestic waste incinerator which is used to generate heat and/or power. We used to do this years ago in the UK to heat swimming pols etc, but we now landfill. There is another process to convert organic wastes into synthetic natural gas. Before the Greenies jump in, with proper controls you don't produce nasty toxins in an incinerator.

Not too badly, they are great at climbing hills and regenerative braking on the way down means they get back some of the extra charge used in hill climbing.

Neil

Interesting times ahead. Oil is a finite resource, and, once it starts to run out, prices will rise. Given world demand and our heavy reliance on energy, the cost increases could be brutal.

The point at which oil extraction begins to drop is called 'peak oil'. Some authorities believe that peak oil was reached in 2006. Others suggest, 2012, 2016 or 2017. The most optimistic suggest 2040. The date is blurred because rising prices make it economic to exploit low yield reserves like Shale, and partly because a few new reserves have been found. However, the fact remains that oil as a commodity is unstoppably moving from cheap surplus to expensive shortage. We are in the danger zone. We don't really know how much oil is left in the ground and the change may be faster than expected. There is no guarantee of a soft landing.

You may recall the shock when OPEC temporarily reduced oil production for political reasons in the 1970s. What governments have to plan for now is much more serious, that is a permanent global shortage of humanities single most important resource. Oil shortages are likely to have wide ranging economic and political side-effects. One possibility is that personal transport will become unaffordable and we will have to revert to previous standards. The graph shows that today's levels of Car Ownership are a recent phenomenon. In 1951 nearly 90% households did not own a car. It's entirely possible over the next 20 years that car numbers will fall dramatically. Not because of smog, or because of short range batteries, or because no-one wants one, but simply because private transport will become unaffordable. First 3+ ownership will fall, then families will give up on owning 2 cars, and finally all but the very rich will be squeezed out.

Enjoy motoring while you can!

Dave

Thought out – I think not….

Job losses

petrol station staff + maintenance staff for pumps etc

petrol tanker drivers + those who fill the tankers + those who maintain both vehicles and plants

"oil rig" workers

Garage staff (lower maintenance required)

etc

There is only one battery plant in Europe – currently running a 100% capacity

There is nowhere in Europe to dispose of old battery's – have to be sent to USA

and thats just for starters

Edited By Antony Powell on 26/07/2017 18:05:29

We do nearly a billion miles a day at the moment, that must be quite a lot of electrickery to generate for recharging all those batteries.

Mike

Duncan , we still do generate from landfill gas. Of the 5000 odd registered landfill sites in the UK (most of which are no longer taking waste) about 2000 produce 14/16% of our energy and will do for about 15/20 years depending on the site in question. This energy should be classified as "Green" but politically is classified as "Fossil Fuel" energy. There is no subsidy paid to these sites to cover over generation shut down (the national grid cannot take the power) as there is to wind farms. It seems to me that gasification plants/incinerators are not the way ahead given that the majority of plants are having to import shiploads of Baltic and American softwood chip to initiate and maintain the burn so that our DAMP, not wet household waste can be burnt. At all UK plants output is much lower than predicted and in some cases will lead to shut down. This will not worry the plant owner because they ARE compensated for their system being unable to burn "waste that is beyond the moisture content that was agreed" and also paid to import softwood chip to maintain the political nonsense that said burning is better, they even place the sensors in a place that most people would not climb to inspect and instead rely on honest operators! At least in landfill inspection is easy and they can be monitored very closely without massive costs, their contents can even be recycled from the liquid (leachate) produced. I have just retired from 15 years worth of design and CQA work in this field and prior to that I designed leachate extraction systems for landfill. Nathan.

Not sure what you mean?

Do you mean . . . The tax collected from transport is spent on transport? They will find something new to tax? Or do you mean they'll just spend less when they collect less?

When the MAHOOSIVE flow of tax revenue from fossil fuels is cut off . . . And we are talking £billions . . . How will they replace it?

Your second option, they just find something else to tax – they will simply tax something else to get it.

Governments only tax as much as they need (within the limits of their different ideas of how much they need, which aren't really that different) because if they take too much it's political suicide or too little (because services go down the plug, again political suicide).

So if they lose 50 billion a year on fuel tax, they put 50 billion a year onto other taxes.

Driving becomes cheaper, lots of other things become more expensive. We all keep more or less the same amount of cash in our pockets, on average. That's what I mean by zero sum, the total change adds up to nothing even though the impact on certain products and services or individuals might vary a lot.

Neil

Edited By Neil Wyatt on 26/07/2017 20:12:28