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Barrie Lever06/08/2020 22:20:15
688 forum posts
76 photos
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 06/08/2020 15:14:55:
Posted by Frances IoM on 06/08/2020 13:34:23:
the jobs that will be needed for many school leavers will not require real skill just mere ability to operate a coffee machine ...

If true the Yoof are doing remarkably well. Today the Service Sector delivers 80% of UK National Income. They're paying our pensions, not traditional manufacturing.

I'm all for celebrating the past but we live in a very different world and future generations will see even more change. Teaching youngsters to drive machine tools isn't going to make anybody rich. Ostlers, mantle cutters and Fossetmakers aren't in demand either.

Challenge for wise forum members: how should wealth be generated in future? Extra marks for showing figures and workings. Marks subtracted for unjustified optimism and empty promises - keep it real please. Zero for yearning after Industrial methods failed repeatedly since 1955. The Good Old Ways are dead and gone, what next?

Dave

Dave

Yet again I find myself at difference to you, your opinions are certainly not held by our German neighbours that you want to stay in union with.

Just answer me a few simple questions, if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.

If Henry Ford does not build the car then just think of all the people who are no longer required to provide the peripheral services.

The only people I know who are making real money are in manufacturing, In my own family our son is a production manager making among other things a robot UV disinfection machine (very busy) and our son in law is a very good chef in the hotel trade (service industry) is starring into the abysss !!

I am getting the son in law involved in manufacturing, it is safer if you do it right !!

B.

Steviegtr06/08/2020 23:37:58
avatar
1363 forum posts
143 photos

Wish i had not seen this thread. This is going to cost me.

The gear is at Brighouse.

Steve.

Paul Kemp07/08/2020 00:27:08
548 forum posts
18 photos

Strikes me that we are in a vey difficult position. I have no doubt SoD is correct with his figures but the underlying thought process as to which way GB should progress I think is flawed purely due to the amount of stuff we are reliant on foreign entities to sell us.

Take the current dispute with China over mainly Hong Kong and the recent decision to dump the Chinese kit. Granted that feeling was extant long before Hong Kong but it's now been brought to a head. So where will the new kit come from? I will bet a pound it is not designed and manufactured on this island! While we have been busy developing the service sector and reaping great rewards, mainly I would also bet from moving non existent money around we have steadfastly ignored being anywhere near self sufficient in terms of producing our own nasic and conditioned needs. Sure on a worldwide market we are un competitive on price for anything but high end and potentially military products.

The focus now is to deliver a product as cheaply as possible that has a design life of around five years or less and the customer is programmed to want the very latest model so nothing is designed to be repairable or long lasting - where exactly does that fit the green model or sustainability?

We have recently seen on this forum an effort to suppress the source of cheap foreign imports of dubious origin or legitimacy. That direction seemed to be supported by many of those that commented. However it is fine on a national basis to form our economy on cheap foreign imports and a focus on the service sector (where service for major products like telecoms is questionable). Why is that? I would submit it is because we have little choice and that is where we have positioned ourselves.

Paul.

Martin Kyte07/08/2020 08:28:51
avatar
2010 forum posts
36 photos
Posted by john halfpenny on 06/08/2020 15:24:33:

Nevertheless Dave, we cannot all wash each others windows.

Correct. What we are supposed to do is wash the windows of those who are busy doing other things on our behalf so that they are free to do them. In deed also make their coffee, service their cars, look after their children etc. Civilisation operates by freeing people up to do what they are good at and some of those things can actually be poetry and art which may not make us weathy but do make us richer as human beings.

regards Martin

PS not picking on john halfpenny just latching on to a usefull sentence to hang my comment on.

larry phelan 107/08/2020 08:36:20
804 forum posts
14 photos

Thank you for that, Jason. Some very nice stuff there alright.

Should make some guys very happy bunnies !smiley

Barrie Lever07/08/2020 08:47:07
688 forum posts
76 photos

Paul

Very wise words although the German trade deficit would challenge the third paragraph !!

The focus now is to deliver a product as cheaply as possible that has a design life of around five years or less and the customer is programmed to want the very latest model so nothing is designed to be repairable or long lasting - where exactly does that fit the green model or sustainability?

As they are certainly not aiming at the bottom of the market on price and seem to be doing quite well.

All of their cars last a good length of time and are reasonably reliable, remember a car should not be 100% reliable because them the service sector would have nothing to do !!!

B.

SillyOldDuffer07/08/2020 09:46:52
Moderator
6181 forum posts
1345 photos
Posted by Barrie Lever on 06/08/2020 22:20:15:
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 06/08/2020 15:14:55:
Posted by Frances IoM on 06/08/2020 13:34:23:
the jobs that will be needed for many school leavers will not require real skill...

...

Challenge for wise forum members: how should wealth be generated in future?

 

Dave

Yet again I find myself at difference to you, your opinions are certainly not held by our German neighbours that you want to stay in union with.

Just answer me a few simple questions, if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.

...

B.

Everyone should read Barry and I because we disagree so fruitfully!

Earlier Barry said, ' the only way that true wealth is created is by manufacturing, mining or farming'. I say that's too narrow. And surprising for a man of Barry's outlook, the idea is Marxist! My objection, it's a recipe for bankruptcy. I like to ask awkward questions. In the UK what will be mined, and how much food could the UK export? Frankly those two are a bust.

Best to keep an open mind about wealth; if someone is prepared to pay, then it absolutely doesn't matter what the job is. In my world, Baristas, Hairdressers, Road Sweepers and Cleaners are all valuable, and all deserve respect. They might even be more valuable than gents 30 years behind difficult economic realities. And being out-of-date happens to us all.

Of Barry's options only manufacturing could be a big earner, and I suggest it's already as big as it can be. Difficult to see how British Industry can expand into major new areas. What exactly will be made? Who will buy it? Can it be sold at a profit? In that context, if the goal is to sell British goods abroad, was it wise to leave our largest market for political reasons? Time will tell.

Barry asks: 'if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.'

The answer is coffee shops existed long before trucks, coffee machines and cash registers! Barry's examples are all things that accelerate the economy - they increase wealth by enabling activity to happen faster, a good thing. Canals accelerated the 18th Century economy by moving bulk goods faster than pack-horses and wagons. Railways accelerated the 19th century by moving goods faster than Canals, while steam speeded production and maritime transport. Telegraphs accelerated decisions and movement of money. In the 20th century, good roads, motor transport, mechanised agriculture, telephones and air cargo were all accelerators. In the 21st century we've containerisation and the internet - the big one. Skills don't feature highly in this picture; they're only of value when there's opportunity to use them. And skill requirements change over time; not much call for Capstan Lathe Operators or the engineering apprenticeships that provided them. In this view wealth is a mix of human, natural and manufactured assets.

Barry mentioned his son's employment problem due to Coronavirus, and believes an industry job would be secure. Maybe, but the Pandemic will end. Chefs will always be wanted, unlike the millions of jobs lost from Mining, Shipbuilding, Steel, Manual Machining, Fitting, Farming and most types of Factory Work. Industry is vulnerable to anyone else in the world producing the same thing for less money.

I'm not saying all is well - far from it. The world economy is so highly strung it might blow all the fuses. However, many of yesterdays solutions are irrelevant because things have moved on so much. Therefore, I suggest there be no sacred cows. If manufacturing creates wealth, go for it. But when anything fails to create wealth stuff pride and do something else. Doesn't matter what a job is so long as someone pays for it.

Observe, orient, decide, act. Never live in the past, even if it was bloody good at the time!

Dave

 

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 07/08/2020 09:49:12

Hopper07/08/2020 09:55:17
avatar
4768 forum posts
104 photos

The fastest growing, most successful, soon to be largest economy of the 21st century: China.

The world's biggest manufacturing industry of the 21st century: China.

Coincidence? Nup.

If you want to make serious money it ain't in cups of coffee and window washing. Those were once schoolkids' jobs for pocket money. Now whole families depend on them. That's progress?

Nicholas Farr07/08/2020 10:21:11
avatar
2405 forum posts
1188 photos
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 07/08/2020 09:46:52:
Posted by Barrie Lever on 06/08/2020 22:20:15:
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 06/08/2020 15:14:55:
Posted by Frances IoM on 06/08/2020 13:34:23:
the jobs that will be needed for many school leavers will not require real skill...

...

Challenge for wise forum members: how should wealth be generated in future?

Barry asks: 'if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.'

The answer is coffee shops existed long before trucks, coffee machines and cash registers! Barry's examples are all things that accelerate the economy - they increase wealth by enabling activity to happen faster, a good thing. Canals accelerated the 18th Century economy by moving bulk goods faster than pack-horses and wagons. Railways accelerated the 19th century by moving goods faster than Canals, while steam speeded production and maritime transport. Telegraphs accelerated decisions and movement of money. In the 20th century, good roads, motor transport, mechanised agriculture, telephones and air cargo were all accelerators. In the 21st century we've containerisation and the internet - the big one. Skills don't feature highly in this picture; they're only of value when there's opportunity to use them. And skill requirements change over time; not much call for Capstan Lathe Operators or the engineering apprenticeships that provided them. In this view wealth is a mix of human, natural and manufactured assets.

Dave

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 07/08/2020 09:49:12

Hi Dave, that's all very well, but not all coffee shops are served by canals or railways and you still need a way for accountancy and you would still needs boats for the canals and trains for the railways, but I suppose you could go back to the horse and cart for roads. So there will always be a need for manufacturing and maintenance.

Getting back to the thread, lots of stuff there to put on a wish list, but too far away for me to entertain myself and I'm running out of space for anything else at the moment.

Regards Nick.

pgk pgk07/08/2020 10:48:18
1887 forum posts
288 photos

I believe SOD is confusing wealth as a country with GDP (which i argue is a flawed measure) as opposed to balance of payments and natural resources. While it's true that the UK is unlikely to be a huge exporter of food it does need to start by being at least self-suffiicient in the stuff rather than importing more than 50% and since british farming is generally quite efficient there is a good argument for encouraging british (farmers. families, franchises) to take on land abroad and farm it.

There is also confusion between 'service sector' and 'service industries'.

My wish for a wealthy nation would be a debt free nation (nationally) with high standards of living - measured not by 'stuff' but by educational standards and quality health and lifestyle.

A substantial part of the national (foreign) income is in financial services and insurance and there has been a 'plot' afoot for some time by both Germany and France to grab the LSE (one reason for leaving europe) and both those sectors are relativey easy prey. Add to that the nonsense we have on foreign owned Amazon/Ebay/Apple/Software and a huge chunk of wealth is exported with little tax benefit.

Gov hails the 'beloved NHS' which apart from being 'free at the point of need' is frankly not very good at all when compared with other top nations. Education is another weak point UK... mostly because it depends on good parenting and that is also woeful - partly due to the culture of both parents working and because of our reservoir of 'underprivileged' - much of which is down to the problems of integrating multiculturalism. The only solution I see is parenting classes and higher teacher ratios and more streaming and smaller schools - and possibly some form of National Srvice - not as a military training but as a further education with discipline.

pgk

Barrie Lever07/08/2020 11:16:31
688 forum posts
76 photos
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 07/08/2020 09:46:52:
Posted by Barrie Lever on 06/08/2020 22:20:15:
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 06/08/2020 15:14:55:
Posted by Frances IoM on 06/08/2020 13:34:23:
the jobs that will be needed for many school leavers will not require real skill...

...

Challenge for wise forum members: how should wealth be generated in future?

 

Dave

Yet again I find myself at difference to you, your opinions are certainly not held by our German neighbours that you want to stay in union with.

Just answer me a few simple questions, if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.

...

B.

Everyone should read Barry and I because we disagree so fruitfully!

Earlier Barry said, ' the only way that true wealth is created is by manufacturing, mining or farming'. I say that's too narrow. And surprising for a man of Barry's outlook, the idea is Marxist! My objection, it's a recipe for bankruptcy. I like to ask awkward questions. In the UK what will be mined, and how much food could the UK export? Frankly those two are a bust.

Best to keep an open mind about wealth; if someone is prepared to pay, then it absolutely doesn't matter what the job is. In my world, Baristas, Hairdressers, Road Sweepers and Cleaners are all valuable, and all deserve respect. They might even be more valuable than gents 30 years behind difficult economic realities. And being out-of-date happens to us all.

Of Barry's options only manufacturing could be a big earner, and I suggest it's already as big as it can be. Difficult to see how British Industry can expand into major new areas. What exactly will be made? Who will buy it? Can it be sold at a profit? In that context, if the goal is to sell British goods abroad, was it wise to leave our largest market for political reasons? Time will tell.

Barry asks: 'if someone does not make the truck then how does the coffee get to the coffee shop and if someone does not make the coffee machine then how does the drink get served and if someone does not make the cash register then how is the money collected.'

The answer is coffee shops existed long before trucks, coffee machines and cash registers! Barry's examples are all things that accelerate the economy - they increase wealth by enabling activity to happen faster, a good thing. Canals accelerated the 18th Century economy by moving bulk goods faster than pack-horses and wagons. Railways accelerated the 19th century by moving goods faster than Canals, while steam speeded production and maritime transport. Telegraphs accelerated decisions and movement of money. In the 20th century, good roads, motor transport, mechanised agriculture, telephones and air cargo were all accelerators. In the 21st century we've containerisation and the internet - the big one. Skills don't feature highly in this picture; they're only of value when there's opportunity to use them. And skill requirements change over time; not much call for Capstan Lathe Operators or the engineering apprenticeships that provided them. In this view wealth is a mix of human, natural and manufactured assets.

Barry mentioned his son's employment problem due to Coronavirus, and believes an industry job would be secure. Maybe, but the Pandemic will end. Chefs will always be wanted, unlike the millions of jobs lost from Mining, Shipbuilding, Steel, Manual Machining, Fitting, Farming and most types of Factory Work. Industry is vulnerable to anyone else in the world producing the same thing for less money.

I'm not saying all is well - far from it. The world economy is so highly strung it might blow all the fuses. However, many of yesterdays solutions are irrelevant because things have moved on so much. Therefore, I suggest there be no sacred cows. If manufacturing creates wealth, go for it. But when anything fails to create wealth stuff pride and do something else. Doesn't matter what a job is so long as someone pays for it.

Observe, orient, decide, act. Never live in the past, even if it was bloody good at the time!

Dave

 

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 07/08/2020 09:49:12

Dave

My reference to a truck should have probably have been better explained, many times over dinner I say that someone should go into the 'Truck axle business' it means do something useful that everyone needs. Everyone relies on truck axles!! (this could be taken to be a horse and cart in former times).

My Grandfather told me to go into the food business, he said it does not matter if the economy is good or bad people still need to eat, of course this is right, however I don't think he meant as a Chef in an expensive hotel and that is the problem my son in law faces.

Our son is in manufacturing (really prototype and specialist electronic assemblies) the guys he works for seem to be able to keep ahead of the curve by being agile and innovative, that is great in my books.

Whilst my view on manufacturing has a Marxist tone, I am anything but a Marxist !!

Finally PGK PGK for Prime Minister, although I expect he has far too much

Barrie Lever07/08/2020 11:19:40
688 forum posts
76 photos
Posted by Hopper on 07/08/2020 09:55:17:

The fastest growing, most successful, soon to be largest economy of the 21st century: China.

The world's biggest manufacturing industry of the 21st century: China.

Coincidence? Nup.

If you want to make serious money it ain't in cups of coffee and window washing. Those were once schoolkids' jobs for pocket money. Now whole families depend on them. That's progress?

Hopper

And it is no coincidence that most of the richest people in the World are involved in manufacturing or sell the tangible result of manufacturing.

B.

Circlip07/08/2020 13:03:06
1167 forum posts

Same old same old. Wealth in manufacturing is created in two ways only. Make millions of bits as cheaply as possible or a few as expensive as possible.

Forget the first one, the Chinese have the market covered, We can't compete on that one cos we priced our labour out of the market LONG ago.

Second one requires few workers.

Joe public wants the most for the least expenditure, but wants loadsamoney for his efforts. Started in the sixties and has rapidly accelerated but quality degenerated and we don't have an "Empire" to dump our rubbish anymore.

Regards Ian.

pgk pgk07/08/2020 13:12:45
1887 forum posts
288 photos
Posted by Barrie Lever on 07/08/2020 11:16:31:

Finally PGK PGK for Prime Minister, although I expect he has far too much

Too much? I freely admit to being comfortable financially but compared to Tory Boris J or Socilaist Tony Blair my personal assets are small and none from back-handers, brown envelopes or overpaid evening talks and introductions or giving peerages to family members.

pgk

Mick B107/08/2020 13:49:45
1656 forum posts
88 photos
Posted by SillyOldDuffer on 06/08/2020 15:14:55:
...

Challenge for wise forum members: how should wealth be generated in future? Extra marks for showing figures and workings. Marks subtracted for unjustified optimism and empty promises - keep it real please. Zero for yearning after Industrial methods failed repeatedly since 1955. The Good Old Ways are dead and gone, what next?

Dave

 

Is it a good question when nobody can possibly know the answer? In the early 80s I moved from being an Indstrial/Production Engineer/Tool Designer to a computer sytems implementation consultant - working for multiple customers in manufacturing and distribution getting the databases converted from manual paperwork systems (later from older computer systems), training staff, working out ways to carry out the myriads of idiosyncratic 'special' transactions and reports you find in any outfit, setting up document print layouts etc. etc.

My father, who was an academic and certainly at least as clever as I am, could never possibly have imagined that such a job could exist in many thousands in an economy like ours, nor that it would be effectively an endless process as each generation of software trashes the body of knowledge built in the previous one.

Now I believe there are (just for example) people who make their living as 'influencers' in You Tube and suchlike. I have no idea what they do to make a day job of that.

So how can anybody answer your challenge with any more than a random chance of a hit? laugh

 

Edited By Mick B1 on 07/08/2020 13:52:44

Howard Lewis07/08/2020 14:25:24
3536 forum posts
2 photos

In 1977 I was told that in USA a master plumber could name his price!

The CEO of such a company was surprised, but pleased, to find that a mechanical engineer could plan and list the parts to modify three cooling systems.

The centre lathe or milling machine owners who make money will, be those providing a specialised service.

There will be lots of companies willing to set up to provide 20,000 items, but don't want the hassle of setting up for a handful. And the CNC set up costs are the same for one or 10,000.

Keyboard skills are important in many walks of life, but how many of us can afford to scrap a chair for the sake of a nut with a stripped thread? It happens, I'm sitting on one now, ex work, having made a replacement..

Most of the folk reading this Forum do not produce in quantity.

We are discussing two very different types of business. But keeping alive old skills allows the unusual, low volume equipment or buildings to be maintained.

The ability to perform work that no else can, or wants to, do will always justify a premium.

The cost of thatching a roof proves that point! Stained glass makers/repairers are pretty rare!

Think of the cost of a one off part for a veteran, vintage or classic vehicle or machine.

The Burrell dealers closed many years ago!

Howard

Barrie Lever07/08/2020 14:29:39
688 forum posts
76 photos
Posted by pgk pgk on 07/08/2020 13:12:45:
Posted by Barrie Lever on 07/08/2020 11:16:31:

Finally PGK PGK for Prime Minister, although I expect he has far too much

Too much? I freely admit to being comfortable financially but compared to Tory Boris J or Socilaist Tony Blair my personal assets are small and none from back-handers, brown envelopes or overpaid evening talks and introductions or giving peerages to family members.

pgk

PGK

No No I was not referring to your fiscal position rather it should have said 'too much sense'

Sorry for the confusion.

B.

Howard Lewis07/08/2020 14:37:50
3536 forum posts
2 photos

No one has ever, or will, pay me £5K to talk for an hour. (Usually, long before then, they tell me to shut up! ), or for telling the virtues of (selling? ) some device that I like / find useful.

Perhaps optimistically, I still live in hopes, (But pretty forlorn ones )

Howard

Howard Lewis07/08/2020 14:38:08
3536 forum posts
2 photos

Double post, deleted

Howard

Edited By Howard Lewis on 07/08/2020 14:39:08

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