Coronavirus

I am sorry I can confirm the Doncaster Exhibition has been cancelled due to the coronavirus This is a wise and very brave decision by the organisers who I am sure will be well out of pocket having spent on publicity etc.
CuP are currently considering ways to soften the blow for their customers, government restrictions allowing. Please watch this space.

This may be of interest: **LINK**

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-tool-biomedical-research-was-invented-ancient-egypt-180974559/

The referenced communication in ‘Nature’ is a free download.

MichaelG.

Just to be clear my comment was based in the belief that these statistics are unknown and if the hazrard happened to be really high then it's kept from people to 'avoid panic'

First it was 2 weeks isolation, then 12weeks for old folks, then 3 mths for everyone and now mutters of 6mths or longer. It's done that way in the belief that folk will accept longer durations once they are in the habit and (hopefully) seeing some response. We now get mutters about a second peak next winter - so 12mths? That's not being frank.

pgk

Danny M, I don’t think you are too paranoid, I do the same with mail and parcels but I wait till the delivery person/postman is out of sight before donning the gloves and handling the items, that way I feel that I am sensitive to how they feel. I think in the bigger scale of things we will all probably suffer the virus, some not even knowing that they have had it due to the range of effects that it can have. The reality is that just one virus particle is enough to infect a person and the virus particles are approximately 20 nanometres in size, very difficult to dodge. Anyway the gov. at the start of this crisis we’re talking about the population gaining “herd immunity” that means by its definition, everyone being exposed to the virus. I think it’s becoming apparent that the various agencies only paid lip service to forward planning for an inevitable pandemic, not just related to the U.K. the USA is beginning to suffer shortages of materiel and equipment, on the news this morning Russia has delivered a consignment of aid to the USA, this included ventilators, bet Donald will not mention that in his daily ramblings. Anyway hope you all stay safe.
Dave W

Visit the website and check their FAQS. They already have orders for the masks which are being fulfilled and the legal side has been looked into. The masks have been approved in Poland and they are waiting on NHS approval.

I repeat, informed research today ( R4 6.30 news ) is stating minimum separation 6m/20ft , 2m is not enough.

Too paranoid? I'm afraid so, yes.

The virus survives best in a human host. It doesn't last long in the open, usually much less than 72 hours. Most infection occurs when people get close enough to transfer the virus. Transfer might occur if an actively ill postman coughed on your package, you touched the slime, and then rubbed it into your face. Unlikely.

If postmen, or anyone else, spread Coronavirus 'like wild-fire' we would be in serious trouble.

I've spent a full week living in the same house as my infected daughter. That's off the scale risky compared with taking in the post. I've not bothered with a mask, or gloves. Instead I kept my distance - at least 3 metres, usually much more, washed my hands frequently, and always after handling dirty washing etc. I've also cleaned surfaces and doorhandles touched by herself. Fortunately having a downstairs toilet meant I can keep well away from the family bathroom. My precautions were quite straightforward. I would have worn gloves and a mask if she'd needed nursing, but she didn't.

Today she's up and dressed. Feeling washed out but no temperature or other symptoms. And I still haven't caught it! Fingers crossed, as I might be incubating.

The statistics suggest that, on average, each Covid-19 victim will infect 2.5 others. That's not many, but the infection rate is much higher in hospitals, care homes or anywhere else people collect in crowds. Someone who keeps indoors on their own is very unlikely to catch it. Compare the risk of staying at home with the idiot who rushes to a supermarket and fills his mobile home with bog rolls and pasta. Then, after collecting granny and the children, he visits a cash-point, refuels at a petrol station and drives 200 miles, stopping once for coffee and a pee break. On arrival he pays cash to the campsite owner and refuels again. Meanwhile his kids are buying sweets in the local shop and making new friends...

Dave

Do you have a link to FAQ? I cannot find it on their website. Hopefully peoples efforts wont be wasted but currently if used its without approval and may never get it. On the other hand it could provide vital assistance to care workers who are not necessarily NHS staff and some literally have nothing in the form or PPE.

Although it's possible to be infected by a single virus, it's very unlikely. Much as the probability of throwing six sixes in a row with dice is 1 to 46656 against. Don't bet the farm on odds like that!

The basic reproductive ratio of a disease ( R₀ ) is the number of infections directly started by 1 individual in a population where everybody is susceptible. Covid-19 is dangerous because everybody is susceptible and a small percentage of those catching it die.

The R₀ of Covid-19 is fairly low, in the range 1.4 to 3.9 Other common diseases have higher R₀: measles 12 to 15, ChickenPox 10 to 12, Whooping Cough 5.5. Covid-19 is less infectious than the common cold, but somewhat worse than ordinary seasonal Flu. Given that, say, 2.5 people will be infected by each Coronavirus victim, the probability of being infected by a single virus is almost zero.

Susceptibility (S) is another ratio. It's the proportion of the population who are vulnerable. S is normally close to average age divided by life expectancy, but Covid-19 puts everybody at risk, making S = 1.

R₀ and S suggest a way of controlling epidemics. By keeping Susceptible people apart, the disease cannot achieve it's natural R₀. If actual R₀ is forced down to less than one by reducing S, the epidemic will stop. Another way is to reduce S by vaccination. Given time S increases naturally as recovered patients cannot be infected again.

One model is based on R₀ is called SIR. It's main parameters are, at a given time:

• S is the number of people not infected yet,
• I is the number who are infected, and
• R is the number removed, no longer susceptible because they're recovered immune or deceased.

The basic maths of modelling an epidemic is fairly simple to those in the know, but it's difficult to get the assumptions right. For example, how effective is the lock-down, given some people must work, others will behave irresponsibly, or fail to understand the guidance applies to them too!

Epidemics are about probability, not certainties. It's not about you or me, it's about us. Individuals don't matter much, it's how the flock behave. So the modellers run many simulations, which the politicians pick from to decide what works best. Unfortunately, there's an element of chance in it. An assumption might be wrong, or manufacturers and services might be unable to deliver counter-measures in time. Anyone care to guess what the world demand for protective masks is at the moment; hundreds of millions or more. That number won't appear instantly by magic - as Churchill remarked of supply problems during WW2: 'Year 1, nothing; Year 2, a trickle, Year 3, a flood'.

I find probabilities difficult to grasp. If only I'd paid attention at school. Aged 14 I thought maths was irrelevant to real-life. Silly me, wrong again!

Fortunately what we need to do is fairly simple. Don't panic buy, avoid contact with others, self-isolate if ill, and wash hands often with soap and water, especially when handling food. Probably best to avoid home remedies, Old Wives, common sense solutions, conspiracy theories, and anything printed in the Daily Boobies!

Dave

Edit: pesky smileys!

Edited By SillyOldDuffer on 02/04/2020 14:42:07

What can we Conclude from the reports on healthcare worker deaths

If readers are confused by the mass of contradictory information, so are we.

What can be desumed by this post is that no one really knows what is going on, least of all governments and professional associations which seem at odds with news outlets as to how many of their members have died.

As our grandfathers used to say, when you do not know what is going on, do nothing. This is what we plan to do from our privileged position: observe and monitor the situation without jumping to conclusions.

dated 26th march

plus a host of subnks to occupy folk

Link

Edited By pgk pgk on 02/04/2020 15:00:47

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Dave,

Please see my post on page 32 30/03/2020 09:37:00

I would be very surprised if this one is only 20 nanometres [although I am quite willing to be proved wrong]

But it doesn’t really matter ... even the biggest coronavirus is too small to be seen with a ‘visible light’ microscope, so your point is well made.

MichaelG.

But they are very susceptable to soap.

Regards Martin

As far as I have be able to ascertain size is in the 50-200nm.

regards Martin

You may find this page informative. UKRI is the umbrella organisation covering all the UK research branches including the Medical Reasearch Council.

**LINK**

regards Martin

You need to sign up as a volunteer, that will let you sign in to their pages on Slack (a forum like system) and access the information on Google docs (regularly updated so I won't post a link to what might be an out of date document).

I'm on headband 6.

Neil

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Which is nicely in line with the paper I linked on p32

... Thanks for the [good as we can get] confirmation

MichaelG.

For those living in or near Warwick, with a 3D printer, and wanting to help.

Face mask supply

No connection with company, just know of it.

First headband came out OK, now on 2nd and will try a stack of four overnight.

Martin

On number 9, but as I haven't done any chin peices yet don't think I will finish the batch until Saturday.

Neil

Looks like basically the same as the one I'm printing.

A clever bit is that a standard 4-hole punch used on a A4 sheet of anything transparent (even a pop bottle) will make a visor.

(edit: I should add in an emergency, the ones for the NHS will have laser cut PETG shields)

.Neil

Edited By Neil Wyatt on 02/04/2020 20:00:05