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Neil Wyatt08/07/2017 11:20:58
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> at the moment electric cars are nothing but a bad joke.

I read a review of the electric version of Volkswagen's UP! recently.

Range of 120 miles and performance exceeding the conventional version, with an 8 year/100,000 mile battery guarantee (no more than 10% capacity loss).

Yes it's pricy, but the lifetime cost is probably less than convectional fuels (the review warns the extra torque and sport performance will eat front tyres though!)

It's an ideal solution for anyone commuting up to about 40 miles, or much more if your employer can provide a charging point. That's well outside city's commuter belts.

I'm personally stunned by how the practicality of electric cars has come on in just a decade, I'm convinced that the technology can only come on in leaps and bounds.

As pointed out above, the real need is for easily swappable and interchangeable battery packs. This will need legislation as manufacturers will want you to use only their own packs.

Ultimately the well-off will swap out their packs regularly and 'part worn' or 'refurbished' packs with reduced but still viable capacity will mean that even those who can't afford new will be able to use electric cars.

But expect a whole new range of ways for vehicle manufacturers' finance companies to make even more money from drivers.

Neil

Muzzer08/07/2017 11:41:34
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Posted by Neil Lickfold on 08/07/2017 02:35:50:

The real down side to electric cars is on cold climates and keeping warm. The batteries don't like the cold.

Neil

Tell that to the Norwegians. Their Pivco / Th!nk vehicles worked absolutely fine in their Arctic climate. Pity they went bust finally, although this was due to the endemic problem of trying to make a commercial success of EVs before the commercial conditions were right. Been there (Th!nk, Oslo) myself - and at an EV company that folded.

Murray

Muzzer08/07/2017 11:46:02
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Posted by Neil Wyatt on 08/07/2017 11:20:58:

As pointed out above, the real need is for easily swappable and interchangeable battery packs. This will need legislation as manufacturers will want you to use only their own packs.

Ultimately the well-off will swap out their packs regularly and 'part worn' or 'refurbished' packs with reduced but still viable capacity will mean that even those who can't afford new will be able to use electric cars.

Don't think so Neil. Doesn't generally work and you would have fun running that one past any of the OEMs. The only cassette concept I can recall was the ill-fated Modec.

Murray

not done it yet08/07/2017 11:49:58
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Let's be honest and admit that, outside cities, at the moment electric cars are nothing but a bad joke.

Not a lot of research here, I reckon. The Orkney Isles likely have the highest density of EVs in the UK. Ideal for them. Virtually no fuel cost (and dino fuels are reeeelly expensive up there!)

Yes, range can be a problem, but not insurmountable and is improving all the time. The Tesla 3 will change all that and other manufacturers will have to respond. I could charge at home on E7 leccy most of the time.

With a nissan leaf, I could easily visit my brother 70 miles away. Full charge gets me there, slow home charge during my daytime stay would enable me to get to Northampton (half way home). A 20 minute fast charge would get me home easily. Extra charging points will come and vince whatsisname (ecotricity) will soon have to charge less for a charge top up than he is presently.

My little diesel saxo is 15 years old. Used as a skip for all my tools, beekeeping kit, etc (so has not had a rear seat fitted for nearly 5 years). I will most certainly consider an EV when it expires.

Neil Wyatt08/07/2017 11:59:46
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Posted by Muzzer on 08/07/2017 11:46:02:
Posted by Neil Wyatt on 08/07/2017 11:20:58:

As pointed out above, the real need is for easily swappable and interchangeable battery packs. This will need legislation as manufacturers will want you to use only their own packs.

Ultimately the well-off will swap out their packs regularly and 'part worn' or 'refurbished' packs with reduced but still viable capacity will mean that even those who can't afford new will be able to use electric cars.

Don't think so Neil. Doesn't generally work and you would have fun running that one past any of the OEMs. The only cassette concept I can recall was the ill-fated Modec.

Murray

Or the Tesla S:

"Tesla designed the Model S to allow fast battery swapping, which also facilitates vehicle assembly. At a demonstration Tesla showed a battery swap operation taking around 90 seconds, about half the time it takes to refill an empty gas tank."

Russell Eberhardt08/07/2017 12:19:14
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Posted by Neil Wyatt on 08/07/2017 11:20:58:

Range of 120 miles and performance exceeding the conventional version, with an 8 year/100,000 mile battery guarantee (no more than 10% capacity loss).

Remember, in the winter with reduced battery capacity and heater/demister going full blast you will probably only get half that range. As for living in a mountainous region...

When my present diesel Skoda eventually falls apart perhaps things will have improved but I will still be looking for something I can drive 1200 km in a couple of days get the ferry to the UK and have room for luggage and my wife's wheelchair. I don't see any hybrids, let alone electric cars that can do that economically yet.

Russell.

Andrew Tinsley08/07/2017 12:35:00
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Electric cars are NOT a replacement for current IC models. They have limited range and expensive batteries. It will suit some people, but totally useless for my particular needs.

Electric cars will eventually take over, BUT this will only happen when there is a big breakthrough in battery technology. It will also be useless for HGVs and the like, even when the breakthrough occurs!

Note the French will be banning IC cars in 2040 and Volvo will only produce electric or hybrid cars form 2019. So it will happen, but not yet!

Andrew.

Mike Poole08/07/2017 12:37:25
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My longest days driving was 600 miles and a channel ferry crossing, a Tesla would have comfortably achieved this with a couple of 40min stops. A friend does the trip to Menton on the French Riviera in a non stop run except for fuel, they have four drivers and picnic on the move. This style of travel would challenge an EV. My choice for the same trip includes two overnight stops. Stop at about 4pm at hotel with swimming pool have a swim and relax for a while then pop out to a nice restaurant for dinner, get up next day have a nice breakfast and on the road at 9:30 for next stage. An EV would easily do this with a little planning. I noticed a while ago that Tesla installed 6 fast charging bays at the Oxford M40 services, I could pop over for a coffee and some free electrickery.

Mike

Mike Poole08/07/2017 13:15:07
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It's looks as though the Tesla free charging has come to an end as of Jan 2017.

Mike

not done it yet08/07/2017 13:34:43
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It will also be useless for HGVs and the like, even when the breakthrough occurs!

Geesh! Doesn't anyone do their research before making such sweeping statements. They are already here! Fuel cells in combination with battery storage.

There are prototypes out there being tested. Have you not heard or seen any details of 'on the move' battery charging? Some french (I think) city is already planning for changing to all electric drive trucks - whether that means swapping tractors at the city limits, or whatever, in any interim period, but it is on the cards.

Buses are increasingly changing to electric - easy for city use to reduce pollution - and as range increases or charging improves the technology will help heavy goods development.

As I see it, there is currently nowhere near enough low carbon electricity generation or transmission capability to remove dino fuels in the very near future, but it will have to come, eventually.

Look forwards, not backwards is what I say.

Vic08/07/2017 13:35:46
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In the not too distant future young people will laugh their heads off when told people used to buy their own cars then leave them sitting outside their houses 90% of the time! Let's not forget that it was not that much more than 100 years ago that it was laughable that automobiles would replace horses as a form of transport.

not done it yet08/07/2017 13:36:29
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It's looks as though the Tesla free charging has come to an end as of Jan 2017.

Only for new purchases, I believe?

Mike08/07/2017 14:24:55
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Vic: Well, it was an improvement on a horse, which you had to feed every day, whether it was working or not. Russell: You seem to be the only one who recognises the impracticalities of electric cars in their present form. The answer is going to be hugely improved battery technology.

pgk pgk08/07/2017 15:12:36
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I doubt the theory of renting autonomous vehicles working any better than the idea of just using taxis now. It'll liekly be worse with errors on credit checking, sme wag workign out how much more economical it is to send it to you slowly and let the punter wait, let alone the horrors of DDOS attacks on hire companies or a need to change to a different service when you get out of their area. For convenience folk will still own their own and likely the economy will foolishly depend on that.

not done it yet08/07/2017 17:21:50
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I doubt the theory of renting autonomous vehicles working any better than the idea of just using taxis now.

 

It is not so much a theory as actual practice already. One can rent electric scooters in Berlin (I think). OK, not autonomous, but simply located using a phone app. Over 200 dotted around the city, I think, and likely more to come. Your credentials are easily checked out before one can even order a vehicle.

 

Too many lame excuses being advanced for what may/will be available in the future. Progress is going on under your noses but few seem to be searching out the possibilities before condemning them as impossible!

 

Edited to correct: Only 150 scooters but another couple hundred to come.

Check out "emmy scooters" on 'goggle' or watch the appropriate "Fully Charged" u-toob video.

 

 

Edited By not done it yet on 08/07/2017 17:28:54

Clive Hartland08/07/2017 17:39:23
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Throw into all this that France wants to get rid of all I/C and C/i vehicles by 2040. But what about through traffic? It looks as if Belgium and Holland will be the routes after that.

Hydrogen fuelled cars is one way forward but at cost. HGV's raise another conundrum entirely and I think that a return to Goods Trains is imminent within the next 10 years or so.

Pollution, saying now Cruise ships are polluters but with HGV's clogging the roads is it a contest to see who does it worst and where it matters?

Clive

duncan webster08/07/2017 17:40:15
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Until very recently I considered electric cars a joke, but now I'm not so sure. Before I retired I had a 90 mile each way commute to work, over mainly rural roads, but that must be exceptional. The vast majority of my trips now are much less than 100 miles, and current technology is managing that. For the very few really long trips I could plan it out to get a recharge, or even hire a petrol car.

Average car mileage is 7900 per year. That's 21 miles per day. That can't be difficult with an electric car.

as for HGVs on the motorway, how about diesel electric transmission, and catenary over the left hand lane, trolley trucks! You could monitor the angle of the trolley pole to the truck and keep it in lane.

Andrew Tinsley08/07/2017 18:01:04
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I most certainly have done my research and my statement is NOT sweeping. All I am saying is that the technology available as of now, is no good for cars if you want to travel long distances or HGVs. That IS correct. The number of recharging points is pitiably few and if you think you can charge up when you need to, then you are in for a very BIG disappointment.

Ah fuel cells you say. The technology is not yet available to put these into mass production. Otherwise they would be on the road now! It also depends on which type of fuel cell you are talking about. Hydrogen / oxygen types are simply disasters waiting to happen. The explosion risk is too great for general use and again NO infrastructure to support it.

Other types of fuel cell show promise but they need a considerable amount of development work to be suitable for general use. I am a physicist who has had a hand in battery technology and fuel cell development and It will take a good few years before either technology is at a point when it will take over. As take over it will. Right now, electric cars are little more than a joke and it needs some serious battery technology gains to make them work as a practical proposition, unless you are a short distance commuter.

I often used to drive up to Oban and that is a 500 mile drive, the only "electric car" that will get me there is a hybrid, so petrol still rules for me. Hybrid cars have the same pollution problems as normal IC cars but simply a little less of it.

People are taken in by the hype, as a practical proposition electric cars are NOT there yet and will not be, until the correct infrastructures are put into place. I don't see much sign of that happening and who will be paying for this not inconsiderable sum?

Andrew.

Mike Poole08/07/2017 18:36:34
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While working in Germany I saw quit a few Teslas and workplace charging points. At the Mini plant in Oxford there are charging points in the employee car park but BMW do make the i3 and i8. I would have thought a 500mile trip would include 1 or 2 stops unless you are vying for an iron butt award. Of course there is still some way to go with the charging point network but it is growing by the day. I would guess that an electric car would suit most people most of the time.

Mike

SillyOldDuffer08/07/2017 18:46:14
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May be missing a trick about oil vs electric which is the assumption that the price of oil will stay low. As oil is a finite resource there will be a point at which demand outstrips supply and prices will rise inexorably. £10 a litre, £100 a litre, you name it.

It's always dangerous to predict the future, but my guess is that very large numbers of private motorists already have transport needs that could be met by today's EVs. With every year EVs become more competitive so demand for them will increase. Eventually the number of people moving to electric will start to put fuel stations out of business whilst undermining the economies of scale currently enjoyed by IC vehicles. The relative cost of owning a pure IC vehicle will rise, gently at first, but - perhaps quite soon - to a level that the average Joe can't afford.

The affordability of an IC car is quite delicately balanced and - compared with an electric car - the engine and drive train are complicated and expensive. The future for IC is bleak if fuel becomes expensive as well, It's entirely possible that transport provision will shift radically over the next 20 years. Not because we like it or not but because the world changes regardless.

Dave

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